Itstrainingtime

1 hour ago, Jns2183 said:

I'm still at 30% chance. Their AFD does talk about chance as well

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

What I read was a few scattered showers early and they were dissipating. 

24 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I am certainly not counting on the meso to get the location right but think some of us see rain in the next 12 hours. 

I hope you're right and I hope you do. CTP's just update AFD all but removed rain for any of us. 

12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I just read an Arizona story of 6-10 people being taken off a taxing Delta plane because it was on the tarmac too long with no AC.  

No place in the world better to read up on this than New York's Hometown Paper!

https://nypost.com/2023/07/18/delta-passengers-pass-out-waiting-for-takeoff-in-las-vegas-during-heat-wave/

86 at 3:10pm. 

7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Early bird nooners...Smoke filtered sun and 76/68

Same conditions but 82 here. 

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

These past FFW's were a pretty big bust for most.  Do not blame them for using meteorology instead of just modelogy but there was not a lot of model support for their decisions. 

Saturday was dumb luck or whatever you want to call it - there was plenty of moisture around but we just couldn't score.

Sunday never felt like it was our day - from very early on, it seemed...obvious that it was going to be a far eastern PA event. CTP "admitted' they extended the watch for continuity and allowed for any storm that did form/hit could have contained a torrential downpour. 

If they hadn't issued the watch on Saturday I highly doubt one would have been issued for Sunday alone. 

7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

My .01 was more than what I had during the FFW. 

I've received .03" over the past 3 days of flash flood watches and heavy rain predictions. I did very well prior to those forecasts. 

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

I am just glad we have a new word to replace forst.  Saturdated:  When it rains so much that another day needs added to the calendar to let it drain. 

As the forst melts the ground becomes saturdated. 

6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Looking forward to it.

 

I think he is way past worrying about his actions.  LOL.

Correct.

One thing I've learned about people working with them on a daily basis is that there are a lot out there that don't care what others think of them. I can't relate to that. Not saying it's right or wrong but I'm just not cut that way. 

2 minutes ago, paweather said:

Can't wait for his winter forecast 

I can. 

1 hour ago, mahantango#1 said:

DT is sounding the alarm!

*SERIOUS WX THREAT*

Ground is SATURDATED in New England /eastern NY/ north NJ /eastern PA. PAY ATTENTION TO THE DAMN FORECAST

I wonder if DT realizes that when he makes posts like that, he's actually turning more people off to him than what he's intending...

A ways out there, but right now the timing of the upcoming refreshing air mass looks to sync perfectly with the weekend. 

No rain in Maytown yesterday. Others need it much more than I do. 

38 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Welcome to Convection Radar Club.  The first rule of Convection Radar Club is: you do not talk about rain until it is falling from the sky.

That is so true.

31 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Lower humidity? My dewpoint is 70 

Looks like my lowest dew today at home was 66 and that was very brief. 

14 minutes ago, canderson said:

Mine is 62 - but was in the 50s at lunch

Wow - nothing close to that here. 

9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Late nooners...filtered sunshine and 80.  Close to as smokey as it has been this summer.    State of the grass below (not under shade).

 

Sad - that's what less than 3" of rain since May will do.   

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I have not gone back to check but do remember it was one of the initial few that suggested the FFW's were mostly over kill.   It has not done that well other times I have looked at it including over stating rain a lot early summer.   Unscientifically I feel like it has been a Spring and Summer for models. 

I thought you might have posted a run where it showed less than a tenth of inch of rain for most of us - pretty much spot on. 

@Bubbler86 - the formally vaunted European model actually did pretty well with precip this past weekend if I remember correctly? 

38 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

How about 7mph with gusts to 14.

Perfect!

29 minutes ago, Jonesy56 said:

On the same page with many here.. In winter (or any time snow is possible) I’m in the invigorating mid-20s camp for ideal temp... outside of winter give me those mid-60s.. picturing those October sunny days that lead to crisp evenings and temps dropping like a rock.. hoodie weather.. also those spring/summer days where you get a reprieve from heat with a socked in easterly flow and a nice steady rain.


.

Each of those scenarios sounds really nice...

16 minutes ago, paweather said:

PAweather 540 line soon to be there. 

Please...I am begging you...no wishing for Halloween snow this year. Don't jinx another winter!  

23 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

My perfect day:  65, partly to mostly sunny, DP 50, and a slight NW breeze.

Do better. I need to know what "slight" means!  

9 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Love the snow, but if it isn't going to snow, I like a 80F high with a 60F low with DPs in the 50s. 

Hmm - that really is a nice day...

4 minutes ago, canderson said:

My favorite temp is around 45. Not too cold to not be able to sit outside, but cold enough that you don't hate life when doing so. 

I mean, I love 20 degree days but to be honest 45 is much more feasible for activity! 

Fair answer. Well reasoned.   

10 minutes ago, Voyager said:

My favorite temperature would be 82, but anything over 70 suits me fine.

I honestly thought your number would be higher...I was hoping you'd respond because I wasn't sure how high it would be.  

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Mine really depends on the wind :-).   With no wind then low 30's...with wind then 50-60. 

 

Smokey here as well. 

 

Perfectly understood, thanks for shaing!