The Iceman

Currently 13.49" on the year at PHL. Ranked #102 out of the last 136 years at this point of the year. This is a cool little website for PHL climo if you've never seen it: http://jcweather.com/100rainytd.php

Looks more like Sunday night late afternoon at least. Euro is pretty amped with it. Show's another round of widespread 1"+ rains. That could cause problems if tomorrow doesn't. At the very least creeks/rivers will be running high after tomorrow. Not sure they'll be much lower come sunday night. I will say that there appears to be a light at the end of the tunnel. Looks to be a pattern change after that system.

12z Euro, backed off a bit on the higher totals but still pretty robust especially across 95 and the pocono's. UKMET still VERY robust GFS is not as gung ho around 95 but still showing the higher amounts in the higher elevations 3km NAM shows the heaviest amounts just NW of 95 Overall looking like a good bet for widespread 1-2" rain mostly falling in a 6 hour period. Some places in the LV/Pocono's could see 3-4" lollipops imo. Should be a fun little storm with the wind and rain.

Updated Day 1-3 QPF map from WPC No local creeks/rivers forecasts to get above action stage for now, but will be interesting to see their rise on Thursday into Friday.

Wpc day 1-3 rain totals

Euro and UKMET(as well as other guidance) continues to hint at big rain on Thursday afternoon/evening. Totals across all guidance has ticked up today at 12z but the Euro and UKMET have some places near the 3" mark in 6-12 hours time.

Euro showing a deluge for Thursday afternoon/evening. Maybe flood potential?

Dryness continues at PHL. Currently ranked 127th out the last 136 years. Only 5.61" of rain on the year. Something to watch as we roll into spring/summer.

just started clearing up here after a bit of light rain. Temp up to 65. Don't see us hitting the forecasted high of 79 barring some serious warming the next few hours.

the meso's don't really show much of anything in the way of convection for most of the area. Pretty meh threat.

00z euro... inside 5 days... figures right after the first day of spring lol

AV and Fletcher made a trade with God last fall: Philly's 19-20 winter and a winter to be named later in exchange for a Cup in the spring. It's tough in the short term but the long term should play out nicely.

Yeah nice as in nice light rain with maybe a mangled flurry thrown in the mix. SFC is scorching tomorrow afternoon.

Flyers baby! 7 in a row, 1 point out of first... could this be the year? They're getting hot at the right time...

I'll be in florida so this one is legit. I'd start preparing now

Had a gust to 48 MPH at my house, not too shabby. Picked up .4" of rain. We get the whiff this weekend that will bring some light rain/possibly snow tv showers. Next system after that looks to in the March 12th time frame. Since I'll be in Florida at that time, I'm predicting this is the one we finally get nailed with snow. Probably a MECS like the 6z GFS. lol

Marginal risk today for severe thunderstorms in the area: ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... A northern stream shortwave trough will translate from the MS Valley to the OH Valley today, and reach the Mid-Atlantic and New England tonight. An associated surface cyclone will deepen from the lower Great Lakes into New England, while a trailing cold front moves eastward off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. In the wake of weakening morning convection and a remnant MCV near southern WV, a few cloud breaks and some low-level warming/moistening will contribute to weak buoyancy in advance of the cold front from WV into parts of PA/VA this afternoon/evening. Broken bands of storms will be possible this afternoon along the front, and the convection will spread east-northeastward toward NJ by late evening. Assuming sufficient near-surface destabilization, wind profiles will favor organized bowing segments and supercells with some threat for isolated damaging gusts and a tornado or two.

same in Levittown. I thought a wicked cold front was moving through...

give me this set up in late april/may... Would likely be a severe threat in March, but that would be an epic look with better instability like we'd see in April or May.

Yeah hopefully we get another 02-03 winter after suffering though 01-02 all over again. Then again we could always get another 12-13 which was only a little bit better(still horrible) than 11-12. 4th straight year though now with 0 events >6" during met winter at PHL. Largest snowfall in that span being 4.1". Largest event including March is only 6.7" and we've only hit the 6" mark twice in those 4 years both being in March 2018. 2016 we had the HECS but by and large it was a dud winter that we got lucky by nailing our 1 window of opportunity. So really we're going on 5 straight met winter's that were absolutely brutal. You'd think something has to give next year...unless this is our new normal..

Yeah S jersey has done better than PHL and N and W. PHL is at 4.51" on the year so far. Currently ranked 109th out of 136 years. Average to date is around 5.6" so about an inch below normal so far. A few active weeks should erase that though.

Seems like a lot of the rain events of late have been under performing. Looks like more of the same tn. Was looking like a 1"+ of rain a few days ago, now looking like a half inch or less. Fairly below normal which isn't a surprise due to the lack of snowpack across the region. Next few weeks look active though so we may be able to put a dent in this. Still fires like the one on Tammany the other night may start becoming more frequent if we don't get some more soaking rains soon.

Roadtrip...

I'm crossing my fingers we can get a similar system to tomorrow to occur a month from now. Would be a very interesting severe set up if that was the case. I think we're in for a decent severe spring with no signs of the pattern changing. That would be cool.

Our NE PA friends may see some snow on the backside tomorrow. Perhaps even down to Allentown may see some flakes at the end. NAM gives Scranton 1-3".