WestMichigan

Now if only the GFS can be believed which we all know is next to impossible. Even Chicago would see something from this. The Ohio Valley is left out, but if this happens their time may come. The positive thing from this is that it looks like cold air will finally make a return to at least parts of the subforum.

That was a good one. As we drove from Hilliard to the SE corner of the state it went from snow to freezing rain to just plain rain. Came home to a snow covered driveway encased in ice. It was a pain to shovel that mess off my driveway.

The wind in my back yard peaked a little before the cold front came through. Highest gust was 68MPH this morning at 5:45.

GRR jumping all in on the wind event with this next one. I recorded 64MPH with the last one. Don't really want anything higher like they are saying. We are issuing, with this forecast package, a High Wind Watch from 7 pm Wednesday till 1 pm Thursday for all but the I-69 area. The HREF ensemble mean wind gust forecast has 60 to 65 mph forecast at 1 am Thursday from South Haven to north of the of Traverse City. With the last event, on the 11th, it had a small area of 50 to 55 mph south of Grand Haven. As it turned out, it was low by 10 to 15 mph based on our observations. Given that and that ECMWF has gusts to 60 from Holland north and the GFS has 60 mph all the way east to I-75 and 63 mph to 69 mph west of US-131, it makes sense to have a High Wind Watch for all but the SE CWA (I-69). The strongest winds will be from around 10 pm (ish) to 7 am (ish). The model forecasts have been very persistent with this idea of very strong winds Thursday morning. That is the key message from this forecast package, high winds Thursday morning. As we have been writing about in all of our recent AFDs, we have a rapidly deepening surface low that tracks from eastern Colorado tomorrow morning to north of Lake Superior by 7 am Thursday morning. The upper level wave goes negative tilt tomorrow (which explains the rapid deepening). There is a significant trop fold with this system too. The results of this is the forecast wind fields significantly strong for this storm than they were for the system we had on Saturday the 11th. At Grand Rapids, the 925 mb wind is 10 knots higher than the previous event. Over our northwest CWA the wind field is 20+ knots strong at 925 mb and 850 mb and at least 10 to 20 knots stronger near the surface. Remember we had gusts in the 60 to 65 mph range near the coast with that storm, 50 to 60 mph inland. I would expect higher gusts with this event than with that previous event.

Nice look fo rthe SE OH and WV crew. I realize that is approaching the Mid Atlantic forum but decent look over the spine of the Appalachians in WV and PA.

Looks like a quick 2-3" passing through West Michigan later on. It would be nice to have this pattern set up again later on when it is a little colder and the snow would stick around. November will definitely be above normal for snowfall.

Picked up about 2" of very wet snow on Friday when the forecast wasn't calling for much of anything. Then yesterday they issued an advisory for 1"-3" and picked up about 0.1". Nice to get that first inch of the year on the record.

Probably saw more lightning on my way in to work this morning that I saw nearly all of this summer combined. There was quite the light show to the west and north west of the lakeshore this morning along with reports of some pretty heavy rain. Clear skies in my area really highlighted the clouds and lightning.

GRR is starting to get onboard with this event. An uptick in the snow is expected on Sunday as the core of the cold air moves through with the potential for a clipper type low or sharp upper shortwave trough enhancing the snow. This feature is shearing out as it gets absorbed into the circulation of the big upper low with snow showers diminishing on Monday as it moves east and heights begin to rise. A general 1 to 3 inch snow event could be expected by that time.

Saw my first flakes of the season this morning. Still have some outdoor work so the upcoming warm weather is welcome but it is almost time to switch to winter mode.

I didn't see the totals from yesterday but they were thinking it might break the Alaska and maybe even US record for 24 hour snowfall. That is why I posted it. Possibly 12' of snow by the end of the storm.

Meanwhile, up in Alaska....

More rain in October than July - September combined in my backyard. Quite the turnaround and definitely welcome rain. Nopefully we can keep this wet stretch alive for another 3-4 months.

1.24" and still raining. Like others have said it looks like the drought is over here.

07-08 was a good one over here. Consistent snows December - February with a normal amount in March. It was the 3rd snowiest winter on record at GRR. I get the feeling that is setting the bar pretty high, but something above average is certainly a possibility.

I'd take a clipper pattern any day over what we have had the last two winters.

Define "worst"

Scratch that, with this mornings light drizzle/rain I have now equalled my August/September combined rainfall in the first 12 days of October. Hopefully we can keep the moisture flowing once it cools off and get a decent winter.

0.07" from matching my combined August and September rainfall in just the first 12 days of October. Definitely a nice change from the dry conditions of the last two months. Guessing the yellow will disappear from this part of Michigan in the weekly drought monitor.

Just curious, what does "normal" look like at this time of the year?

Not from the NE, but for anyone commenting on quality of snow and the hills, try skiing in the Midwest. You would think you are in paradise skiing just about anything in the mid-Atlantic or NE.

Similar weather up here. More or less normal to below normal has been the theme. LES especially has been missing the last couple of winters.

Keep the lakes a little warmer until that first cold snap and maybe the LES can fire up and be a little more reliable this winter.

Potholes, what potholes. Didn't our governor say she was going to fix the #@!$ roads. Sorry for the political interjection, but I couldn't pass that one up. In all seriousness, glad you enjoyed your visit to Michigan @buckeye. You actually had a pretty good summary there. Went to Mackinaw Island this summer and like you agree it is a nice place to visit with some really cool blue water, especially if you leave the main tourist area at the docks.

Same miss north and south here also but we didn't get the view to go with it. Nice view of Lake Michigan and the city there.