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dwagner88

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Everything posted by dwagner88

  1. dwagner88
    Now we are cooking with gas! All snow big flakes.
  2. dwagner88
    The sleet snow line is as plain as day on RadarScope. Everything south and East of a line drawn from red bank to Ooltewah is sleet. It’s been stalled there for an hour.
  3. dwagner88
    Progress of the CC drop has stalled out and I remain mostly sleet. That’s pretty discouraging.
  4. dwagner88
    The sleet is stubborn. Still hanging on to 80% sleet. CC drop is very close on radar though.
  5. dwagner88
    Changing right now. First flakes are flying.
  6. dwagner88
    Almost 100% sleet now. Starting to accumulate on the back deck.
  7. dwagner88
    Same here, just started. We are just about to drop below 35.
  8. dwagner88
    The bottom has fallen out of the thermometer. 8 degree drop in 20 minutes.
  9. dwagner88
    We definitely have convection. NE Alabama has just lit up with heavy showers. These will be 100% liquid. Hopefully just a taste of what is to come.
  10. dwagner88
    Looks like the Gulf convection I mentioned earlier is beginning to push off to the east over FL. The radar is also going nuts over AL right now.
  11. dwagner88
    I don’t know how to feel about all of this. It has been a LONG time since there was this much positivity from the models about a snow event. Maybe Jan 2011 was the last one? All the other big ones were close calls.
  12. dwagner88
    I just realized that MRX has not issued a WSW for the entire CWA. The two counties missing are Clay and Cherokee in western NC. These counties are typically favored during winter events, but may be too far east for this one.
  13. dwagner88
    This is what I am concerned about.
  14. dwagner88
    Sadly it appears oriented due E-W right now.
  15. dwagner88
    At this point I’m looking for the fly in the ointment. I can’t help but notice robust convection originating in the gulf around 200 miles due south of the FL/AL border. It is persistent and appears unmoving. I’m wondering what affect it will have on moisture transport later if it doesn’t clear.
  16. dwagner88
    There has been a trend this evening in showing a convective feature running along I-75 from Hamilton county up through Knox county. Wherever that sets up is in for quite a show from Mother Nature tonight. It reminds me of the MCV that formed in the February 2014 storm over Birmingham and travelled up the I-59 and I-75 corridors. I got around 4” additional snow (and some thunder) just from that feature during that event.
  17. dwagner88
    Just looked at the GFS. Almost had a stroke.
  18. dwagner88
    Wow. 12Z NAM just took Chattanooga from 1” to 7”. Definitely more in line with other modeling. I’m still thinking 2-4” here. Tempering expectations. The mountains could certainly see 7”+. I’m about to go for a run in the 65 degree sunshine. 12 hours from now it should be dumping snow.
  19. dwagner88
    The GFS appears to be quite sensitive to the Eastman Chemical snow hole of despair. You can always see Kingsport.
  20. dwagner88
    They finally implemented what I've been asking for! It never made sense to have the same warning criteria down here as Johnson City.
  21. dwagner88
    We have had a couple of events this winter advertise accumulations for 100% of the state. None have delivered so far. Is this “the chosen one”?
  22. dwagner88
    I’ll also add that the HRRR appears to show a dramatic improvement in BL temps throughout the southern valley on this run. 2.4” is the minimum over the UHI downtown on the river. Looks like most of Hamilton county is in the 3-4” range. That would be fantastic. As bad as the last two years were, I would settle for enough to cover the grass.
  23. dwagner88
    I’m secretly overjoyed that 99% of NC misses out on this. I’ll consider it reverse CAD.
  24. dwagner88
    Held steady here with 3.37”. In an encouraging change, zero members show a total shutout. One only has 0.25” or so. Big dog here is around 9”.
  25. dwagner88
    I’m honestly a little surprised at the winter storm watch. I expected the typical valley winter product black hole. I think that indicates they are at least considering a higher end event, even down here.
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