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dwagner88

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Everything posted by dwagner88

  1. dwagner88
    Snow is finally mixing in Cleveland
  2. dwagner88
    Dual Pol seems to indicate that East Polk Co has changed over. All rain in Cleveland at the moment.
  3. dwagner88
    Good grief. We would get plastered for sure if it were just a little colder. That’s an impressive amount of qpf.
  4. dwagner88
    Temperature hasn’t budged here. Still a steamy 48. DP is down to 36. We have a bubble of warm moist air down here.
  5. dwagner88
    48/39 on my PWS right now. That’s not very encouraging. DP seems far too high.
  6. dwagner88
    Help! I've been NAM'ed for the second time in 2 weeks! I'm still super skeptical of temps. I said during the last event that I'd cut totals in half. I was wrong. Who knows what will happen this time. Fingers crossed!
  7. dwagner88
    With the last system, this area got lucky with accumulations because we spent several hours below freezing before precip started. This will not be the case for this system. I predict a RN/SN mix with no accumulation for the valley south of 40, light accumulations in the grassy areas above 1500'.
  8. dwagner88
    It got pretty close. I know Davidson Rd was closed this morning. It is further downstream on that creek and is subject to backup from South Chickamauga. Storm total for me when I left the house this morning was 2.76", which is quite a bit less than the globals were showing during the day Monday. The HRRR and RAP were correct in showing lighter amounts overnight.
  9. dwagner88
    Oh I have no doubt that there will be significant urban and flash flooding tomorrow morning, but I don’t think we are going to see 24 hour totals over 5” like earlier runs of the Euro and NAM were showing last night. I have 1.76” in the gauge at the house, and all of the streams are now bankfull. The next round will put them over the edge.
  10. dwagner88
    I have to say I'm pretty pleased with the way the convection in central MS and AL has shut off the taps up here. We are having a heavy shower at the moment, but it looks like we may get a couple hour's reprieve after this. The radar is drying out across North Alabama. At some point this evening that front will lift north and bring the convection with it, but this may help limit qpf somewhat this far north.
  11. dwagner88
    Up to 1.14" at KCHA. Still running ahead of everything, even the Euro. MRX issued a pre-emptive flood warning for South Chickamauga creek for meeting flood stage at 18 ft. It crested at 23 ft. with less rain last week. Not sure where that forecast comes from.
  12. dwagner88
    Looks to me like the Euro has the best grip on reality right now. It is the only one not significantly behind the surface qpf obs. Showed KCHA in the 0.60-0.80 range since start of precip. Actual obs shows we were at 0.81 as of 11:45. It unfortunately has in excess of 5" qpf falling from this first round. It is much lighter with the second round, as it appears to show intense convection over northern MS blocking moisture return in the area Wednesday. We finish out by noon on Thursday with just over 6".
  13. dwagner88
    The 18Z GFS yesterday said the rain wouldn't start until mid-afternoon today. I've been discounting it for getting the start time so wrong.
  14. dwagner88
    It won’t take much to cause a lot of problems. The trees are basically sticks in loose mud at this point.
  15. dwagner88
    This is normally when I say that the NAM tends to overdo precip, but that totally contradicts my experience from the weekend snow event.
  16. dwagner88
    Man. This stuff melted incredibly quickly. It’s 99% vaporized already. I can’t ever remember going from bare ground to 4+” back to bare ground so fast.
  17. dwagner88
    BTW we had liquid equivalent at the airport of 0.28” meaning that this snow which fell at 32-33 degrees had a ratio of around 15:1. Any ratio over 10:1 is exceptionally rare here. Had to be the extreme dendrite growth on the flakes pumping up the ratios.
  18. dwagner88
    Peaked at just a hair over 4”. We have some snizzle falling now and it’s compacting it back down to around 3.5”. Already melting out of the trees. Temp went up to 34 as soon as the precip slacked off. What an awesome little event!
  19. dwagner88
    Downstream report for you guys. 4” on my back deck. Had 2” in the last hour but it looks to be tapering off soon. Largest flakes I’ve ever seen in my life. Some were bigger than my palm.
  20. dwagner88
    I just measured 4” on my back deck railing. Ridiculous. 1.5” of that fell in the last half hour.
  21. dwagner88
    Puking monster flakes now. Probably got another inch in the last 20 minutes.
  22. dwagner88
    Moderate snow now. Already have a decent dusting. It is trying to coat my cul de sac. Definitely sticking to the concrete driveway.
  23. dwagner88
    On the TN side of the Georgia state line off Graysville rd.
  24. dwagner88
    Can confirm. Light snow and 30 degrees here. Just started.
  25. dwagner88
    I like the way this sounds. I moved recently and my backyard fence is on the Georgia state line. It’s always interesting to see the difference in forecasts. FFC is far more liberal with wx advisories than MRX.
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