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dwagner88

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Everything posted by dwagner88

  1. dwagner88
    CC transition line remains stalled out along a line from Scottsboro, AL to Dunlap. Temperatures even on the plateau east of there are above freezing, but barely. The Sequatchie valley is acting as a very effective snow shield ATM.
  2. dwagner88
    What road is this? State highway or county?
  3. dwagner88
    The CC line is actually stalling out over the plateau. It is struggling to make progress east after really racing over the last hour to get to that point. That’s surprising.
  4. dwagner88
    If dual-pol is correct Manchester is getting absolutely clobbered right now. 45-50 dbz all snow.
  5. dwagner88
    Crazy reflectivity in NE Alabama. Looks to be rain, but it’s very close to the changeover line. Dual Pol isn’t indicating much sleet in north Alabama. Seems to be all snow or all rain.
  6. dwagner88
    Very heavy rain. The temperature has now dropped 33 degrees in just over 24 hours and 21 degrees in 8 hours.
  7. dwagner88
    The changeover line has reached the Franklin/Marion county line per CC. I’m expecting it to rocket across the plateau then stall for a while at the valley. All of the above should happen in the next 1.5-2 hours.
  8. dwagner88
    This is what to watch for later tonight and it is certainly possible if a trowal comes into play. Flakes that size will accumulate super quick. It happened for us in Feb 2020.
  9. dwagner88
    I’m remembering an event from January 2013 similar to this. We had a long duration warm rain event followed by a quick closed off low. If I recall correctly, everyone in the valley from West Knox southwards blanked. Knoxville north and east got several inches of heavy wet snow. The warm air bubble was in a very similar spot. Short term models are showing it getting almost up to Knox county now. I’m still hopeful that we get some favorable dynamics for a quick inch or two in the outlying areas and hilltops.
  10. dwagner88
    Front hasn’t moved through here yet. Temp is up to 62. I think that would be a record if it actually snows later. Incredibly warm.
  11. dwagner88
    I wouldn’t focus too much on small areas being shown with BL issues. The models don’t have enough resolution to accurately predict accumulations during quick hitting heavy events like this. I still believe this will be a quick 1-3 on elevated surfaces even in the lower elevations, with a big thumping for everyone over 1500’ or so.
  12. dwagner88
    I can't tell if the issue show on the HRRR in the valley is just temperatures (in which case I believe rates will trump it), or a loss of forcing from the deformation zone. If it's the latter, someone is getting screwed.
  13. dwagner88
    Clown maps divided by two is my modus operandi for winter events. That’s still a good snow for most at this rate. Huge bust potential in either direction.
  14. dwagner88
    Worth mentioning that dendrite growth is just as important as temperatures. This could be a situation where we get those monster palm diameter clumps of snow falling. Those accumulate quickly even in warmer temps.
  15. dwagner88
    Rates are going to be key. I’ve had 3 inches of wet snow accumulate at 34 degrees. It melted from the bottom up, but it made a quick mess of the roads.
  16. dwagner88
    Western parts of middle TN have been hit with catastrophic flash flooding this morning. Dual pol estimates max out at over 17” of rain near McEwen TN.
  17. dwagner88
    Looking at our area, we have had a couple of minor mud slides in Polk and eastern McMinn counties. Eastern McMinn in particular seems to have been hit pretty hard. I can believe that 10” total from Monroe.
  18. dwagner88
    That’s a big miss by the globals on the precip shield. They had it more correct 48 hours ago.
  19. dwagner88
    Looks like the GFS was correct with the rain amounts. The precip shield is more displaced to the NW from the LLC than on the other globals. MRX said 025"-0.50" today. Already over 1" and it's pouring down.
  20. dwagner88
    I had very little snow and 4-6” of sleet from this one. Best sledding in my entire life. It also took forever to melt.
  21. dwagner88
    I got over 4" just last night with the stalled boundary over the area. I really don't need any more from Fred. The Euro is lighter than the GFS (under 2" additional), but ALL of the models blew the heavy rain last night.
  22. dwagner88
    Beautiful sunset right now. Kinda surreal.
  23. dwagner88
    I always look forward to the frontal based storms forming in events like this. It makes the end of the tornado risk easy to decipher on radar. We still have a long way to go.
  24. dwagner88
    After the Easter EF3 last year, I do. I have one for every family member ready to go.
  25. dwagner88
    Nasty hail core heading straight for downtown Nashville.
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