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dwagner88

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Everything posted by dwagner88

  1. dwagner88
    Not good news for firefighters out west.
  2. dwagner88
    Yep. Southeastern Hamilton county. Just been a run of bad luck here. Most of the surrounding area has had more rain, but I can’t seem to get lucky with scattered afternoon storms this year.
  3. dwagner88
    Not here unfortunately. I’m well below normal for 2 months running now.
  4. dwagner88
    The GFS has suddenly introduced heavy rain (2-3”) for tomorrow evening. Likely moisture from Marco interacting with the stalled frontal boundary. So far it is on its own in showing this. Interesting that it has shown up so late in the game.
  5. dwagner88
    Dry here also. This is looking likely to be 2 months on the trot below normal. I think it’s been a couple of years since that has happened. July is normally the wettest month of the year here. I finished with >50% normal.
  6. dwagner88
    With today’s storms I have crossed 6” of rain this week. Totals like that seem to be isolated though. I just got unlucky. I’ve needed to mow all week but the yard is a swamp.
  7. dwagner88
    FFC’s survey will result in the path length for the East Brainerd EF3 being revised to 20 miles. My tenants in Ranch Hills have no power still. CPD and HCSO are severely limiting access to that area. Some horrible people were caught posing as officials and looting.
  8. dwagner88
    Finally got my power back this afternoon.
  9. dwagner88
    Coming from someone who has lived in East Brainerd for 31 years, this is heartbreaking. This thing could not have hit in a worse spot to maximize damage to homes. This area is essentially 100% developed with very little vacant property. A large number of homes are damaged beyond repair. Not just smaller homes either. There were several 7 figure neighborhoods in the path. The area around and just behind my rental house has been decimated. Most of these homes are solidly middle class and would list for 150-200k. This is an economic group that does not need added expenses during the virus shutdown. The width of the path is the most shocking thing to me. This track is far wider than anything we saw in this area during the super outbreak. EDIT: We have a official estimate of 12,000 properties damaged in East Brainerd from this storm. I'd wager that this is at least half of the total number of properties in the zip code.
  10. dwagner88
    I was finally able to make it over to my rental property. Somehow it is the only house on the street without significant roof damage. Only an aluminum deck awning was torn off. In worse news, all of the fences collapsed and every single tree is knocked over. The main path of the tornado missed the house by about 100 yards. The entire landscape behind the house has been changed. It was jaw dropping.
  11. dwagner88
    The area of damage that the fire department is looking at is nearly a mile wide. Crazy for such a quick spin up.
  12. dwagner88
    Ugh. My favorite wings come from there. Worst part is that there’s nothing but houses behind it for miles.
  13. dwagner88
    Hearing more damage reports from friends now.
  14. dwagner88
    It came awfully close to my house. I could hear the inflow. No damage here that I can tell, but no power. Looked like Hamilton Place over to Collegedale was hit. That’s a densely populated area.
  15. dwagner88
    HRRR and GFS both have a significant flash flood event tonight. 6”+ qpf.
  16. dwagner88
    It got pretty close. I know Davidson Rd was closed this morning. It is further downstream on that creek and is subject to backup from South Chickamauga. Storm total for me when I left the house this morning was 2.76", which is quite a bit less than the globals were showing during the day Monday. The HRRR and RAP were correct in showing lighter amounts overnight.
  17. dwagner88
    Oh I have no doubt that there will be significant urban and flash flooding tomorrow morning, but I don’t think we are going to see 24 hour totals over 5” like earlier runs of the Euro and NAM were showing last night. I have 1.76” in the gauge at the house, and all of the streams are now bankfull. The next round will put them over the edge.
  18. dwagner88
    I have to say I'm pretty pleased with the way the convection in central MS and AL has shut off the taps up here. We are having a heavy shower at the moment, but it looks like we may get a couple hour's reprieve after this. The radar is drying out across North Alabama. At some point this evening that front will lift north and bring the convection with it, but this may help limit qpf somewhat this far north.
  19. dwagner88
    Up to 1.14" at KCHA. Still running ahead of everything, even the Euro. MRX issued a pre-emptive flood warning for South Chickamauga creek for meeting flood stage at 18 ft. It crested at 23 ft. with less rain last week. Not sure where that forecast comes from.
  20. dwagner88
    Looks to me like the Euro has the best grip on reality right now. It is the only one not significantly behind the surface qpf obs. Showed KCHA in the 0.60-0.80 range since start of precip. Actual obs shows we were at 0.81 as of 11:45. It unfortunately has in excess of 5" qpf falling from this first round. It is much lighter with the second round, as it appears to show intense convection over northern MS blocking moisture return in the area Wednesday. We finish out by noon on Thursday with just over 6".
  21. dwagner88
    The 18Z GFS yesterday said the rain wouldn't start until mid-afternoon today. I've been discounting it for getting the start time so wrong.
  22. dwagner88
    It won’t take much to cause a lot of problems. The trees are basically sticks in loose mud at this point.
  23. dwagner88
    This is normally when I say that the NAM tends to overdo precip, but that totally contradicts my experience from the weekend snow event.
  24. dwagner88
    Moderate snow now. Already have a decent dusting. It is trying to coat my cul de sac. Definitely sticking to the concrete driveway.
  25. dwagner88
    On the TN side of the Georgia state line off Graysville rd.
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