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dwagner88

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Everything posted by dwagner88

  1. dwagner88
    I’m actually feeling OK about this one. It’s definitely going to be an all or nothing event here. But the high rez NAM is clearly showing snow, just spotty accumulation around the ridge tops. I suspect reality will result in some grassy accumulations even at the lower elevations due to the timing. West of I-75 in the UHI will probably blank. Biggest question mark is a potential 850 warm nose.
  2. dwagner88
    Wow. I'd forgotten how bad this was just north of here. That's a crazy picture. One of those rare times I was glad to miss out on an event. Stayed at 33 here. Then we thankfully got rocked by the miller A on the tail end to the tune of 8-9".
  3. dwagner88
    In this pattern, nothing is reliable at that range.
  4. dwagner88
    I always found it interesting that the only portion of TN that doesn’t drain to the Mississippi River is a very small slice of southern Bradley and Southwest Polk Counties. Conasauga river watershed.
  5. dwagner88
    Nothing here. Looks like signal and lookout mountains got a couple inches.
  6. dwagner88
    Buried? The highest reports I’ve seen are under 2”. It is falling a low elevations though. That surprised me. I figured it would only accumulate on the Cumberland Plateau.
  7. dwagner88
    HTX radar looks very healthy. Plenty of streamers even down here. Nothing falling at the moment, but I can’t complain about the look. Definitely not a typical NW flow look.
  8. dwagner88
    Knoxville TDOT cameras look arctic. Especially east of town.
  9. dwagner88
    Sun is out here. The door is closing from the west.
  10. dwagner88
    Love seeing these pictures. Keep them coming!
  11. dwagner88
    These products are typically very overdone. That being said, the ECMFW and GFS both depict a significant inland wind event across central Alabama and Northern Georgia from Atlanta northwards. Essentially along and just north of the I-85 corridor. If you want to see fall leaves in the mountains, go today.
  12. dwagner88
    Not good news for firefighters out west.
  13. dwagner88
    Yep. Southeastern Hamilton county. Just been a run of bad luck here. Most of the surrounding area has had more rain, but I can’t seem to get lucky with scattered afternoon storms this year.
  14. dwagner88
    Not here unfortunately. I’m well below normal for 2 months running now.
  15. dwagner88
    The GFS has suddenly introduced heavy rain (2-3”) for tomorrow evening. Likely moisture from Marco interacting with the stalled frontal boundary. So far it is on its own in showing this. Interesting that it has shown up so late in the game.
  16. dwagner88
    Dry here also. This is looking likely to be 2 months on the trot below normal. I think it’s been a couple of years since that has happened. July is normally the wettest month of the year here. I finished with >50% normal.
  17. dwagner88
    With today’s storms I have crossed 6” of rain this week. Totals like that seem to be isolated though. I just got unlucky. I’ve needed to mow all week but the yard is a swamp.
  18. dwagner88
    It got pretty close. I know Davidson Rd was closed this morning. It is further downstream on that creek and is subject to backup from South Chickamauga. Storm total for me when I left the house this morning was 2.76", which is quite a bit less than the globals were showing during the day Monday. The HRRR and RAP were correct in showing lighter amounts overnight.
  19. dwagner88
    Oh I have no doubt that there will be significant urban and flash flooding tomorrow morning, but I don’t think we are going to see 24 hour totals over 5” like earlier runs of the Euro and NAM were showing last night. I have 1.76” in the gauge at the house, and all of the streams are now bankfull. The next round will put them over the edge.
  20. dwagner88
    I have to say I'm pretty pleased with the way the convection in central MS and AL has shut off the taps up here. We are having a heavy shower at the moment, but it looks like we may get a couple hour's reprieve after this. The radar is drying out across North Alabama. At some point this evening that front will lift north and bring the convection with it, but this may help limit qpf somewhat this far north.
  21. dwagner88
    Up to 1.14" at KCHA. Still running ahead of everything, even the Euro. MRX issued a pre-emptive flood warning for South Chickamauga creek for meeting flood stage at 18 ft. It crested at 23 ft. with less rain last week. Not sure where that forecast comes from.
  22. dwagner88
    Looks to me like the Euro has the best grip on reality right now. It is the only one not significantly behind the surface qpf obs. Showed KCHA in the 0.60-0.80 range since start of precip. Actual obs shows we were at 0.81 as of 11:45. It unfortunately has in excess of 5" qpf falling from this first round. It is much lighter with the second round, as it appears to show intense convection over northern MS blocking moisture return in the area Wednesday. We finish out by noon on Thursday with just over 6".
  23. dwagner88
    The 18Z GFS yesterday said the rain wouldn't start until mid-afternoon today. I've been discounting it for getting the start time so wrong.
  24. dwagner88
    It won’t take much to cause a lot of problems. The trees are basically sticks in loose mud at this point.
  25. dwagner88
    This is normally when I say that the NAM tends to overdo precip, but that totally contradicts my experience from the weekend snow event.
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