dwagner88

I can't remember our last dry month. I was surprised by the fires last week because it has remained so wet around here. We were way above normal rain for March.

Winds with the line of storms were not that bad here. We actually had higher gusts with the gradient winds earlier in the day.

My power has been out twice this evening, but has come back both times. Wind is still howling.

Pretty much every model shows 50+ mph gusts area wide tomorrow, except for the NE valley. Mountains are more like 70-80 mph. It’s going to be another very windy day. Just like last week.

I went out to the new house site in Apison Saturday morning after this event and grabbed a shot. Around here I never know if it will be 5+ years before the next event, so I make hay while the sun shines. The bare earth did not accumulate snow well in the photo, but there was probably double the accumulation here vs. at my house in the city at ~750’ ASL. This lot is around 980 ASL. I’m a little nervous being within spitting distance of the damage path of the 190 mph EF4 from the super outbreak, but I am thankful for the help that I will get in winter from the extra elevation and distance from the infamous Chattanooga snow dome.

Winding down here. Barely an inch. It looks pretty, but I can’t help but be disappointed. It’s 20% of the model consensus forecast for this event.

Absolutely no way that verifies. This thing is moving really fast.

Flake size is really hurting accumulation here. That and the wind.

Radar is filling in back to the SE. we may have a shot at 3”.

Just drove to Exit 20. It was snowing so hard on white oak mtn I could barely see. There was a minor wreck on 75 near VW, but the roads were mostly good. Starting to slush up a bit.

Now we are cooking with gas! All snow big flakes.

The sleet snow line is as plain as day on RadarScope. Everything south and East of a line drawn from red bank to Ooltewah is sleet. It’s been stalled there for an hour.

Progress of the CC drop has stalled out and I remain mostly sleet. That’s pretty discouraging.

The sleet is stubborn. Still hanging on to 80% sleet. CC drop is very close on radar though.

Changing right now. First flakes are flying.

Almost 100% sleet now. Starting to accumulate on the back deck.

Same here, just started. We are just about to drop below 35.

The bottom has fallen out of the thermometer. 8 degree drop in 20 minutes.

We definitely have convection. NE Alabama has just lit up with heavy showers. These will be 100% liquid. Hopefully just a taste of what is to come.

Looks like the Gulf convection I mentioned earlier is beginning to push off to the east over FL. The radar is also going nuts over AL right now.

I don’t know how to feel about all of this. It has been a LONG time since there was this much positivity from the models about a snow event. Maybe Jan 2011 was the last one? All the other big ones were close calls.

I just realized that MRX has not issued a WSW for the entire CWA. The two counties missing are Clay and Cherokee in western NC. These counties are typically favored during winter events, but may be too far east for this one.

This is what I am concerned about.

Sadly it appears oriented due E-W right now.

At this point I’m looking for the fly in the ointment. I can’t help but notice robust convection originating in the gulf around 200 miles due south of the FL/AL border. It is persistent and appears unmoving. I’m wondering what affect it will have on moisture transport later if it doesn’t clear.