dwagner88
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Everything posted by dwagner88
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Any word about how things are progressing out west? Over/underperforming so far?
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It is showing a warm surge at around 800 MB for about 3 hours across SE TN. This gets reflected in the snow maps. I think there is going to be a lot more sleet than snow south of 40.
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Looks like we are going to miss our high temp again today. My PWS is only at 34 and appears to have leveled off for the afternoon.
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So much sleet. Really don't want that. The roads will be an absolute nightmare.
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January 2011? Although that may have missed the far NW corner of the state.
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GFS is a big improvement down here. Way less mixing over northern GA.
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That ARW run winds up with 5-8" south of 40, but I don't think it's done snowing in NE TN yet at the end of the run. Still doesn't like Greene county all that much. Downsloping I suppose.
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NAM is fringing on ice storm warning criteria here. Very little snow shown. Very reminiscent of January 2024.
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Oh man. That was a heartbreaker.
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Where is this from? It is wildly different from the 10:1 output on pivotal. WAY more snow across MS, AL and GA shown here.
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Might be wish casting a bit, but that's also what I'm thinking. I'm being reminded a bit of January 2009. That was even more marginal than this event. No accumulation forecast for the southern valley. Wound up with 5" from that one. Dynamics won out.
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That looks frighteningly close to last January here. Really hoping the dynamics win out. If they do, 6-8" easy. If they don't 1-2".
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Probably doesn't matter much at this point, but we didn't come close to our forecast high temp today. Just barely got above freezing at 33 in the warmest parts of the city. Outskirts and mountains remained below.
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I could be totally off base here, but my gut tells me the dynamics at play are going to keep TN all snow for this event. If you look at the 850 temps on the NAM, you can see them sneak above 0 south of I-40, then as the levels saturate they quickly cool below freezing starting in Northern MS and AL and spreading northward. The wetbulbs are well below freezing. I don't see enough warming to actually cause a changeover. Might see lowered ratios and sloppy wet snow though.
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Lol. MRX grids have rain Friday afternoon now for here. Lucy is coming for the football.
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100% agreed. That warm nose is only going to be a problem if the precip dies out as the storm moves to the east.
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That is actually possible. There is some CAD at play.
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I've seen that happen with freezing drizzle down here before. Most recently in 2011. We had 7 inches of powdery snow then a few hours of freezing drizzle with temps in the low 20's. It made the snow very resistant to melting.
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It shifted south pretty significantly. Northern ATL suburbs got the heavier stuff shown across southern TN on the 18Z.
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Well I sit on a hilltop 2 miles north of the GA state line at about 1000’ in elevation. I’m quite optimistic at this point.
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That looks like a repeat of Jan 2024 to me. Big pass. I really don't want to watch it sleet again. So far it's just the Canadian models that see the sleet on the southern periphery. Everything else is showing all snow, and some are big hits.
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Their >4" probability chart shows it even more pronounced. It actually intrudes all the way past I-75 in Bradley and Hamilton counties. I don't buy that. Even in very intense downsloping events (IE January 2016) I don't think I've ever seen it affect more than a 10 mile strip of land along the US411 corridor down here. BTW the probabilities for >4" are as follows: Chattanooga: 36% Cleveland: 26% Athens: 33% Knoxville: 46% Crossville: 48% JC: 22% Kingsport: 25%
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Almost the entire mid state. Those two small dots in Grundy county are just out of luck.
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I got up on the roof and took down Christmas lights. That was exhilarating.
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I’ve never seen snow verify here from an anafront. Count me as rooting against that. I would rather expect frigid and dry.
