snowman19

I’m not saying the QBO is unfavorable at all. As to solar, yes, I’d agree that solar is similar. Both sunspot and solar flux numbers are back up over 200. And it looks like we are about to have a big uptick in geomag activity too

I’m not disagreeing with the 500mb +AO/+NAO, however, there are many big differences I see, namely last year’s Nina didn’t get going this early, it was a late-bloomer event, we didn’t have a strong -IOD and the AAM was the complete opposite. We had the very strong Nino like +AAM right into November, this year, deep -AAM. The PMM is and has been very negative this year, was not negative at this time last year. The North Atlantic didn’t have the south of Greenland to Davis Straight cold pool last year. Also, the marine heatwave around Japan in the NW PAC was getting bombarded with recurving tropical cyclones and extratropical storms coming off the coast, which was upwelling and cooling the SSTS in that area, not the case this year, in fact SSTS are 11 degrees F above normal in that area currently. Further, the QBO has flipped

Not sure if QBO data goes back that far but I wonder if that’s a match too or not

I agree. The Niña is tipping its hand much earlier this year than last, there’s a -IOD event now and the NW Pacific is even warmer. There’s also a very pronounced -PMM and we have a deep -AAM, whereas last year was very +AAM/Nino like. Last year by this time we had a parade of recurving tropical and extratropical storms training over the inferno SSTS off Japan cooling/upwelling them, not happening this time around. In fact the -PDO is even stronger now with SSTS of 11 degrees F above normal in that area….that’s staggering. And obvious big changes in the Atlantic with the big persistent cold pool south of Greenland and up Davis Straight EDIT: We’ve also had a QBO flip from + to -

There’s people on twitter who think that just because it’s a La Niña it HAS to be above normal in ACE and named storms. As we all know on here, that’s just not the case, just like it doesn’t HAVE to be below normal when there’s an El Niño

@Bluewave

@Gawx We are almost at the 290+ sunspot peak we saw last summer

With the -IOD gaining strength, it would seemingly support MJO convection in the IO and Maritime Continent, not the Pacific

According to some, we are at solar minimum lol

@Gawx

“Highlights • The PMM index defined in this study removes the signals of ENSO more effectively. • A positive PMM is weakly related to El Niño, while a negative PMM is more convincingly related to La Niña.” https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0169809524000917

This is the strongest -PMM we have seen in some time. This is only going to enhance La Niña development. The new run on the normally severely warm biased BOM model has begun a cave to a La Niña now

All we can do is wait and watch. I will say this however, if we get to the end of September and are still waiting for things to get active with the number of tropical systems/ACE, then I think it will be time to give it up

To add to my post from yesterday: “That is a big part of the reason why I question 2013-14 as a “good analog”. This year has a much better chance of seeing a La Niña in the fall/early winter than 13-14 ever did, 13-14 did not have a -IOD event as we do now, it did not have a strong -PDO; in fact it was a Victoria mode PDO which is a pseudo +PDO setup and was only very weakly negative, it was not -PMM and it was a strongly positive QBO all winter, see my monthly QBO numbers above AND it did not have record low arctic sea ice. The only resemblance to this year that I see is the Atlantic tropical season (**so far**) and the big cold pool south of Greenland and up Davis Straight, other than that, big meh as an analog IMO…..” Saw on twitter this morning a couple of folks using 13-14 as their analog, which is fine, everyone is certainly entitled to their opinion and I understand their arguments. However, one person in particular (a met) was completely unaware that 13-14 was +QBO and was incorrectly arguing that it was -QBO. If you are going to make an argument for a certain analog at least do your homework and get all your ducks in a row and facts straight. Just more of a reason to take wxtwitter with a huge grain of salt….even some mets there…..

That strongly supports more of the same eastern IO and Maritime Continent forcing (MJO 4-5-6–7) with all of the warm SSTS in that region. Also supports Niña strengthening/EWBs, enhanced trades

I happen to think it wasn’t an innocent mistake based on this person from the UK’s past winter forecasts….which always come to the same conclusion about how winter will turn out. I’m pretty sure there were ulterior motives (likes, etc. from his followers) for saying we are at a solar minimum because said person knows darn well that a solar minimum and low geomag = high latitude blocking

^That is a big part of the reason why I question 2013-14 as a “good analog”. This year has a much better chance of seeing a La Niña in the fall/early winter than 13-14 ever did, 13-14 did not have a -IOD event as we do now, it did not have a strong -PDO; in fact it was a Victoria mode PDO which is a pseudo +PDO setup and was only very weakly negative, it was not -PMM and it was a strongly positive QBO all winter, see my monthly QBO numbers above AND it did not have record low arctic sea ice. The only resemblance to this year that I see is the Atlantic tropical season (**so far**) and the big cold pool south of Greenland and up Davis Straight, other than that, big meh as an analog IMO….. @donsutherland1 @bluewave

13-14 was also a +QBO winter. These were the QBO numbers from Nov-Mar, 13-14: Nov: +12.45 Dec: +12.55 Jan: +13.13 Feb: +12.68 Mar: +11.72

The North Atlantic is night and day this year compared to 2023. That big cold pool south of Greenland and up Davis Straight has been incredibly persistent since spring. Basically the opposite of the heatwave off of Japan in the Northwest PAC

The amount of flat out false info circulating around wxtwitter is simply amazing. Just read a tweet claiming that we are at “solar minimum” which isn’t even close to being true. You really have to be careful who you follow on there

That’s exactly the problem….our starting point at the very beginning of this arctic sea ice melt season was record low so we ended up with yet another record low year for 2025

You can’t be that specific on snowfall this far out….or even close in lol There are a few things that look like good bets going into winter. @Bluewave usually uses MJO wave intensity come October, which I think seems to be a rather decent indicator. So far, the MJO has been following the tendency of the last several years of favoring phases 5-6-7

I can see the -EPO, the +PNA not so much, especially since it’s a 2nd year -ENSO/-PDO. Not saying no +PNA but IMO it will be limited