snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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The CPC has just spoken:
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My thoughts exactly with the GOM influx cut off. Would not be surprised if we end up with even less than what the Euro is showing right now. I know that’s not what people want to hear but I guess any little bit of rain from a FROPA would be a change at this point given where we have been since August
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The Euro is very likely the closest to reality for next week. I don’t see it being much than a run of the mill FROPA. The Canadian is totally off its rocker as usual and the GFS has a wildly different solution on every run
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What is EPS showing?
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It was really terrible with that last winter. And in December with a negative ENSO, MJO phases 3 through 7 are all warm in the east
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If you have time, look up the 5 driest falls on record, since this fall is at #2 of all time, and see how those winters turned out. Snowfall and temps
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The MJO is forecast to emerge in warm phases by early December. We’ll see
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God speed and good luck with your forecast!! I hope it works out for you
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Sustained EWBs confined in region 3.4! Yep, this is definitely a textbook east-based event!!
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Who gives a shit what Eric Webb says?
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Look at where all the arctic air is, locked on the complete opposite side of the pole again, in Eurasia. And we are going into mid-November. Just like last year
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FWIW:
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Just to add, while it’s certainly possible that the solar cycle peaks this month, you typically don’t see this level of CME activity as a solar cycle is just about to start descending. Again, it will take months to know for sure if this is actually the peak happening right now
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The other mistake people are making is believing the EC stratospheric forecasts weakening the SPV. There is literally nothing to support that right now through the tail end of this month. The EC consistently (and incorrectly) tried the exact same thing last November and was dead wrong. You have big troughs where there should be ridges forcing upward flux and warming into the stratosphere to perturb the SPV. It’s 180 degrees the exact opposite of what you want to see if you are looking for a weakening SPV
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All one has to do is look at the huge warming of the Indian Ocean (and -IOD development) over the last month. That’s the elephant in the room right now. The overall La Niña, -PDO atmospheric background state is NOT going to change in a big way with that setup. It’s just going to potentiate the MJO 4-6 tropical forcing and standing wave regardless of whether the region 3.4 ONI is cold-neutral or weak La Niña this winter. Some of us overlooked that fact last winter and instead decided to believe the long range weeklies and monthlies and it was a very huge mistake. Fatal error and resulted in really bad busts
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Look at how much the Indian Ocean has warmed since October. This is only going to serve to reinforce the strong La Niña background state and tropical forcing (MJO 4-6) along with the -IOD
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We’ve been hearing that the solar cycle has peaked since July and those claims have obviously been completely wrong. We won’t know if November is actually the peak for several months
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Closing in on mid-November and 70’s behind a “cold” front….
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@bluewave Just like the stronger SE ridge/WAR correction on the Atlantic side, the correction to a stronger -PNA and +EPO on the PAC side continues on today’s modeling. Over and over again
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So shocking. Another -NAO hooking up with the WAR/SE ridge that the models underestimate, then get stronger and stronger as we move forward in time. Looks very likely that the uber dry pattern continues right through the tail end of this month and the drought goes on unabated. The measly .20-.30 of rain that fell last night will get vaporized this afternoon. We have smoked the 2001 late summer/fall drought, left it completely in the dust
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All I know, from what I read on twitter, is Judah said Siberian snowcover buildup looked promising around mid-October, then it took a dump and completely stopped the last 2 weeks of October. I believe it finished just “normal” and he was very disappointed
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Normally that’s completely true, but given how this entire fall (really since the end of August) has gone so far, would anyone actually be surprised if that doesn’t work out?
