snowman19

An AI model at 10-11 days out. This deserves a triple bun

Yea. Up to this point they have been decoupled but there is some good evidence that they will couple in the next 2 weeks

Definitely nothing even close to an upward flux major warming of the stratosphere. JB was hyping one last week for clickbait and subscription money, but he’s dead wrong as usual

Will be interesting to see if his theory actually works out. Will also be interesting to see if we meet or eclipse the strongest +QBO on record

I’ve seen some evidence that La Niña/+QBO/solar max may support a late winter (mid-late February or early March SSW), but at that point, would it be strong enough to downwell and affect the troposphere in time to make a difference? And what kind of SSW? Major? Minor? Would it cause a split? Displacement? Which side of the pole would it favor?

This La Niña is very clearly strengthening on all metrics and now the region 3.4 ONI is reflecting it. The drop in the MEI is indicative of a very well coupled (ocean-atmosphere) system as is the RONI and SOI

Given the strong background atmospheric/oceanic La Niña state, no surprise at all and the MEI is almost certain to drop lower coming up. It goes back to what @roardog just posted about with the RONI @bluewave I’m sure you weren’t surprised by the MEI drop

Would you be shocked if the EPS looks absolutely nothing at all like that operational run?

Part of it is absolutely ENSO. If you read through the above tweet, only the NPAC is resembling a Nino, the equatorial PAC is full blown La Nina and it’s going to work to block the MJO from propogating east into 8-1-2 due to the CP Nina standing wave/subsidence/EWB shear and cooler SSTA. So it gets back to @bluewave point of competing influences in the pattern

@bluewave Still confident in an MJO 8-1-2 fail coming up. The cooler/cooling waters in those phases and the EWBs from the CP/Modoki Niña are going to shear it apart as it propagates east. Plus, the very strong SPV and tropospheric coupling will only potentiate the +NAO See:

Agree about a well inland threat. Verbatim, +NAO, no block, no 50/50 low. Plus an ongoing tendency of the models to badly underestimate the SE ridge/WAR at range, if a shortwave really amps it’ll be a runner or a cutter

They are the Joe Bastardi, Jr. of twitter now. I’m waiting for them to completely bail on their winter forecast just like they’ve done every year since 2019. It’s coming….

It hasn’t been that long. December, 2022 was cold

Yet another example of the SE ridge/WAR getting badly underestimated by the models until we get closer in time. Different winter, same story. The Atlantic has not changed one iota (+AMO). Maybe we see some sort of regime shift there too come spring and summer like I think may happen in the PAC

I mean bottom line, the background state is still the same and it’s not showing any signs of some unexpected, massive shift. We can count every pixel on the SSTA maps at this point and it’s not going to make any difference. Fact is, the PDO is still very strongly negative and the WPAC warm pool in MJO 4-6 is still there. It’s showing transient cooling due to the very strong convection firing, but the SSTs there are still a furnace and they extend deep below the surface. Once the convection lightens up, they will warm at the surface anew. IMO we are grasping at straws at this point. That said, I do think we see a big PAC regime (PDO, IO, WPAC warm pool, ENSO) shift but it’s not going to happen between today and March 30th. That’s going to be a driving feature of next winter….

@mitchnick It goes beyond ONI. It’s no longer a good ENSO indicator due to all the AGW background warming. It’s all just getting washed out. Case in point, look at what I just posted, it’s all indicative of a healthy La Niña event not La Nada despite the current ONI. It is absolutely a classic La Niña circulation. Atmospherically and oceanically:

It’s been cold and it’s going to get cold later this week. No doubt. You’d have to be a fool not to acknowledge that. Could very well be that we are seeing a classic “front-end loaded” La Niña. If that’s indeed the case, just lends even more confidence that the pattern goes canonical La Niña mid-late January and especially February and March since we seem to be following a classic progression

@Bluewave @GaWx Here is a real good illustration of my point. The Niña standing wave is clear as day. The entire atmospheric and oceanic circulation is classic La Niña. Very good read here and why I seriously doubt the MJO signal ever makes it to or across the dateline:

It would not surprise me one bit if the MJO signal dies before ever going 8-1-2, given the reasons I stated yesterday. I absolutely believe we see a repeating phase 4-5-6 reemergence this winter for those reasons

The fact that even the -EPO happy long range EPS is seeing this speaks volumes. If that is in fact correct (Bering Sea trough/+WPO), it’s going to completely cutoff the arctic cross-polar flow and flood Canada and the lower 48 with PAC air. While not a “torch” it’s definitely mild verbatim And as far as La Niña, we are seeing the importance of looking past the traditional ONI for atmospheric and oceanic clues. AGW has skewed everything so warm, that the traditional indicators for ENSO events are getting largely washed out

Complete nonsense on the major SSW. The SPV stays very strong. And BS on getting cold. Huge ++EPO developing, the EPO floodgates open wide and the entire CONUS and Canada get flooded with PAC air for weeks. Good luck getting cold and snowy. EDIT: @brooklynwx99 With your track record the last few years I’d tread very very lightly. And I only quoted Eric Webb because @MJO812 was making love to him last week

Oh nice. So the idiot flat out admits that he’s doing it just to get subscription money from his east coast weenie base. Snake oil salesman spouting out lies and false info. He’s making a mockery of the profession for his own personal gain. What a total disgrace

@bluewave @GaWx The rapid Region 3.4 cooling is no surprise at all. There is no question that the atmosphere and ocean is strongly into La Niña mode as Paul Roundy clearly showed and the now classic CP/Modoki La Niña is going to gain a lot of strength this month. It’s finally responding oceanically with region 3.4 cooling dramatically. The -IOD is also gaining strength and is constructively interfering. +SOI, EWBs, Nina standing wave convection, MJO propagating strongly through 4-6, the entire global picture is screaming La Niña

I absolutely believe, 100% that the atmosphere is deep in La Niña mode. As far as why the MJO is moving strongly through phases 4-6, it’s because that’s where the warmest SSTs are and where the global heat budget is centered. Not a surprise at all that the strongest and most persistent convection is in those phase areas, Thermodynamics 101. I also believe that we don’t see the MJO advance past the dateline into phases 8-1-2 in any meaningful way. Why? I think: 1) the wave dampens and dissipates in the relatively cooler waters and 2) I think the enhanced trades/EWBs shear it to bits. I see 4-6 as being the dominant phases this winter. As to why ENSO region 1+2 is so warm….it’s because there is a CP/Modoki La Niña in place and that’s the classic SST configuration for such an event. Some very good musings here:

JB rendered himself completely irrelevant years ago. The guy is delusional and willing to spread false info and lies to those who don’t know any better just for money, likes, retweets and follows. Only the hard core weenies take him seriously anymore. He’s nothing but a shit stain on the meteorological profession