snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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It will be be interesting to see what happens with the North Pacific high come November and December, is it flat or poleward? Seems to be conflicting info about the QBO/Niña relationship like you said. Looks like there is pretty decent consensus now for a moderate peak sometime in December. As Ray showed in his preliminary outlook, it appears this event may be evolving into a “Modoki” La Niña now
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Don’t know if you guys saw it but winter composites for low solar/La Niña/+QBO were posted in the New England forum:
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These fires are reaching record heights into the stratosphere: https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-WILDFIRE/POLLUTION/xlbpgjgervq/
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Here is the links to the articles he mentioned on this:
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Even up in the NYC metro area, a La Niña/+NAO is a very, very bad combo for snow and cold lovers. New England is a different story
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No, they have just begun to affect the stratosphere. The effects will continue through winter. This is going to have long lasting effects for many months even after they end
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All these wildfires punching smoke up into the stratosphere are not what you want to see. It is increasing the chances of seeing another +AO winter. HM posted 2 articles last week explaining in detail why this is
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Very Impressive job. Obviously took you a lot of time and effort. Interesting write up
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How much of a monkey wrench do you think this may throw into things?
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Can’t disagree with that. I do think we will absolutely need the NAO to cooperate this winter. I have a feeling the AO and the PAC side are going to be hostile. You can already see signs of a firehose PAC jet again and we are already dealing with La Niña/-PDO
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No, it’s definitely not and the ongoing huge wildfires out west aren’t what you want either. They are altering the stratosphere in a way that supports +AO
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Yep, this time of year, hitting 90 or above with that kind of upper level ridging wouldn’t take much
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Large Scale Global Wildfires and its Climate Impact
snowman19 replied to bugalou's topic in Climate Change
The current western wildfires getting into the stratosphere would seemingly support a +AO winter. -
HM tweeted a study on the effects of the major wildfires going on out west....it dramatically affects stratospheric conditions for the winter:
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I read several studies which concluded that tropical volcanic eruptions that punch into the stratosphere result in +AO the first winter after an eruption, then cause -AO the following winter. This study on wildfire impacts on the stratosphere is real interesting. These wildfires are much more extensive than 2017 so you would expect a bigger impact; it would seemingly support +AO this winter
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Wasn’t the GloSea the very first model to see the extreme +NAO/+AO last fall?
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I don’t know what he’s looking at, but every model is getting stronger and stronger with the December peak. It’s almost a unanimous forecast for moderate peak now. The models are also showing it evolving into a more “modoki” La Niña look as we move into winter, as SnowHibbo pointed out the other day
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Yea, the -PDO is a match but the QBO is different. NOAA just issued a Niña advisory and it looks like this thing may peak at moderate strength come December. The models keep getting stronger with the peak.
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The models are getting stronger with the Niña too, looks like a moderate peak come December. The Euro is now showing a more “Modoki” look to the Niña as we get into winter as SnowHibbo pointed out.
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DT painted himself into the same corner JB did with his Niña/QBO argument several years ago. If he stands by his argument and the research he posted back then, he can’t go for a cold and snowy winter in the east with a +QBO or risk contradicting himself. Should be interesting to see what his forecast is, unless he finds some way around it. He has gone cold and snowy the last few winters in a row
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I don’t think anyone would be shocked if November turns cold. It’s been a reoccurring theme for several years now, September and October end up warmer and drier than normal, then November flips colder and wetter than normal. Deja Vu....
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Just out of curiosity, what makes you say this looks like a modoki La Niña? It looks like a basin-wide event to me for sure, not so sure about it looking modoki though. The new CANSIPS would agree with a stronger La Niña:
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Yea, the La Niña driven circulation theme is unanimous among all models for this winter. The new CANSIPS and Euro reflect that:
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This is a pretty healthy looking La Niña at the moment. It’s really becoming more of a basin-wide event....region 4 hasn’t stayed this consistently cool for quite a long time:
