snowman19

IMO this winter is going to come down to the AO/NAO, if they are predominately positive this winter, everyone south of New England (really central New England) is screwed. Just -NAO without -AO isn’t going to help IMO, they both need to be predominantly negative together to get a good winter this time. This La Niña is basin-wide and is very likely peaking strong, it’s also very strongly coupled. I don’t think we are going to see a good PAC side, it’s probably going to be garbage. Griteater pointed this out, but the pressure anomalies in the North Pacific, GOA and Alaska so far this month and projected going into November are now suggesting a flat Aleutian ridge as opposed to the +QBO Ninas that had poleward ones. If the AO/NAO cooperate, then it’s game on for cold and snow, see 73-74 super Niña, 10-11, 95-96

Agreed. However, if it’s being done as a way to not be wrong no matter what happens this winter, that’s a pathetic way to ‘forecast’ IMO. If it’s a ratter, they can say “See, I used 88-89 as one of my analogs!” Or if it’s a very cold and snowy winter they can say “See, I used 95-96 and 10-11 as my analogs!” Not saying that’s their intent, but if it is, that’s pretty sad

I don’t understand the people who are using complete ratters (i.e. 88-89, etc.) along with 95-96 and 10-11 as their analogs. It makes no sense

This La Niña is not playing around. I think strong is definitely in the cards now....

As far as the Niña, I mentioned over in the New England forum yesterday, it has become a basin-wide event. It is no longer “east-based”. All ENSO regions are solidly into a La Niña now. ENSO region 4 is the coldest it has been in over a decade....approaching -1.0C

@frd Looks like griteater came up with that composite you had posted about last month for October’s relationship with the wintertime North Pacific High (poleward or flat) and +QBO/basin-wide La Niña:

I was going to ask that. People keep calling this “east-based” but it’s really basin-wide. ENSO region 4 hasn’t been this cold in over a decade and the models project it to stay that way throughout the winter. It’s approaching -1.0C:

The models are back to showing their phantom negative AO and negative NAO blocks in the long range, only to completely lose them as you move forward in time. They’ve been doing this for years now. BAMWX pointed it out yesterday

I lost all respect for him when he was hyping a very cold and snowy winter for the east coast back in 15-16 with a raging super El Niño in place.....just showed how ignorant he is

Couldn’t agree more. The “solar minimum” argument is just more snake oil

I don’t even look at the Judah Cohen snake oil SAI index anymore, that proved itself to be nonsense. Looks like the models, once again are pulling their normal phantom AO/NAO blocking fantasies in the long range, right on schedule:

Nice write up

I mentioned it before, but I think all this record arctic sea ice melt is also contributing to the persistently +AO and +NAO winters we have been seeing. IMO it’s not a coincidence and it’s created a positive feedback loop

The Greenland ice melt is extremely disturbing. Not as bad as 2012 but it’s still at record levels. If there were any more doubts about AGW having a major effect on our climate and global circulations, this is a very good example. Even HM is clueless as to which way the NAO is going this winter. Should be interesting to see what Isotherm says

Agree here. The 73-74 winter is real interesting, you had a raging strong La Niña (strongest in history) and a very deeply negative PDO, yet it turned out to be a pretty decent winter for cold and snow. That really illustrates your point of how important both AO and NAO blocking are for the east coast during moderate and strong La Niña events....

Very true. I guess you also have to consider that the 73-74 super La Niña occurred during a totally different, cooler climate era. I kind of doubt that even with a complete carbon copy of 73-74 this winter, you’d have the same results in the temperature and snowfall departments....

As Uncle W just pointed out, 73-74 was the strongest La Niña in history and had a severely negative PDO yet it was a decent winter

Back in July, never in a million years did I think this Niña event would ever approach strong, but it appears to be doing just that. The models continue to get stronger with it. It’s now fully coupled, ENSO region 4 has dropped like a rock. There are also shades of the 88-89 strong La Niña showing up, which HM and Ben Noll have pointed out:

Everyone knew that....except for JB, Judah Cohen and Steve DiMartino lol You know, the usual quacks....

I doubt it goes this strong, but HM and Ben Noll have made comparisons of this year to 1988:

The funny thing is, and they mentioned this in the New England forum, the models showing the -NAO December, also have a +AO....I would think it would be pretty rare to have a +AO/-NAO combo...usually they go + or - together, they usually aren’t out of phase with each other. I guess we’ll see

Yea, I kinda figured strong Niñas probably didn’t differ much from moderate Niñas. I think moderate is pretty much a given now, I think there’s a possibility that it may go strong, but not a super event like the UKMET is showing with a trimonthly of < -2C

Are you buying the models showing a strong/very strong La Niña peak?

Yea, that would make it one of the strongest La Niñas in history. A < -2C trimonthly is crazy. I kind of doubt we are heading into a super La Niña.....

The new UKMET run is ugly as it gets. It’s showing a very strong < -2C La Niña for Dec, Jan, Feb. the H5 is extremely ugly too: