snowman19

Over the last 15 years, I wonder how many anafronts have actually produced?

Central Park saw a whopping 1.5 inches of snow out of it

https://mobile.twitter.com/WXRISKCOM/status/1202484903415291904

You beat me to it, so far the HRRR seems to be the most accurate. It did very well with yesterday’s non event on the front end

Here’s the more accurate depiction of what the 0Z NAM shows; 12 K: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019120200&fh=36 3K: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019120200&fh=36

You aren’t going to have 10:1 ratios tomorrow, they are so inaccurate, it’s not even funny

Those 0Z 10:1 12K and 3K NAM snowmaps are very, very badly overdone, not even close, like not even in the ball park. Go to the positive snow depth change maps and compare. The difference is astounding

New NAM total for storm: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019113012&fh=84

There is a lot of sleet counted as snow in that

It will depend on how far north the secondary gets going. The models minus only the NAM are moving it further north and west since last night

There is going to be a lull after the initial WAA mixed precip to rain Sunday afternoon

November 2018 had a much colder and drier airmass in place to start, there was also extremely strong lifting and dynamics in the DGZ

I would be shocked if there isn’t a north movement with this storm on the models between now and Saturday’s runs. These secondary coastal transfers always tend to do that as you get close

People are using the grossly inaccurate 10:1 ratio “snow” maps that count sleet as snow. They aren’t even close to reality, it happened all last winter

It got warmer all the way into the Hudson Valley

Seemed like that to me too, that’s why I had asked about these things moving north as you get closer in time

Aren’t the models notorious for redeveloping and occluding too soon/far south in these situations, then they adjust north significantly as you get closer? I remember a few years ago, I forget which year and month it was, but just that scenario happened, it showed a DC, Philly, NYC hit and it ended up crushing New England instead

Surface is warm too on the Euro. That 12Z Euro snowmap is bogus, in fact Coastalwx from the New England forum totally dismissed it and for good reason, the mid-levels are a torch and the UKMET actually was cooler at 0Z, the new 12Z run has no snow at all until you get into extreme Northwestern New Jersey

Yea, that snowmap is way, way off. The mid-levels are completely torched on the Euro, all the way into southern New England

Big problems with this. The 50/50 low is much weaker and further north than was modeled a few days ago, garbage airmass in place, no cold surface high locked in to the north, strong primary parent low cutting way west, secondary coastal low takes too long to form and bad track

The UKMET got warmer than last night’s run. It doesn’t have even so much as a trace of snow until you get into extreme NW NJ. It’s posted in the New England forum if you want to take a look

When you have folks who aren’t even mets saying what the weather is “definitely” going to do over the next 4 weeks, as if they are commanding it to do so, especially with respect to something as anomalous as snowfall, is extremely ill advised. Statements like I’ve seen today on twitter, i.e.: “it’s impossible that the I-95 corridor doesn’t see above normal snowfall this month with the upcoming pattern”, is just not smart. No one has the weather or mother nature totally figured out with absolute certainty and if they do, they probably can also walk on water and turn water into wine....

I love twitter right now and the “experts” proclaiming that it’s “impossible” “no way, not going to happen” that the I-95 corridor is not going to have seen well above average snowfall come December 31st. “Above average snowfall definitely coming, buckle up.” Famous last words. Talk about setting yourself up for a gigantic, epic bust making statements like that. Nothing in weather is “impossible” or “no way, not happening” or “definitely happening” weeks in advance. You don’t speak in absolutes in weather, doing so ends up making you look foolish when it doesn’t work out. No one has the weather all figured out. I have a feeling some folks may be eating humble pie 4 weeks from now

No not really. I’m a weather fan period. All weather; warm, cold, snow, rain, wind, dry. I’m not just a cold and snow fan only, unlike some others ;-)

With the amount of uber hype circulating around social media about mid-December becoming epically cold and snowy, if it fails, I honestly believe there will be mental breakdowns and suicide attempts if it’s not at least -10F below normal with 40+ inches of snow between December 15th - January 1st....