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snowman19

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  1. snowman19
    The CFS is forecasting a prolonged period of very strong easterlies over the ENSO regions starting in mid to late November. This would support more robust La Niña strengthening going into December
  2. snowman19
    If the CFS is correct, very strong easterlies return across the ENSO regions in mid to late November, this would support another robust round of La Niña strengthening
  3. snowman19
    The CFSV2 is now predicting a historic, “super” La Niña. It shows ENSO region 3.4 dropping down to -2.25C...which would make it the strongest La Niña in history....surpassing 73-74 and 88-89
  4. snowman19
    The latest model runs are forecasting the strongest La Niña in history, they show region 3.4 dropping to -2.25C. If it happens, it would take 1st place over ‘73-‘74 and ‘88-‘89.
  5. snowman19
    Agreed. We’re in a basin-wide strong La Niña. If we don’t see legit -AO and west-based -NAO blocking (east-based -NAO won’t help), we will be in deep trouble. The PAC side is most likely going to be garbage, -PNA/RNA, +EPO, +WPO
  6. snowman19
    People need to wait until the beginning of December to see what effects the upcoming -PNA/RNA pattern has on the SSTs off the western North American coast and the GOA. @Allsnow mentioned this yesterday, but there’s a possibility that all those warm anomalies get completely eroded away in the next several weeks
  7. snowman19
    What’s most striking is how cold Nino region 4 has gotten, it’s been over a decade since it’s been this cold
  8. snowman19
    I was thinking that too. Once the wavelengths start to shorten up again in March, those MJO phases don’t have the same mild effects on the pattern as they do in the dead of winter. If I’m a betting man, March will be cold, assuming everything progresses that way. What you don’t want to see in a La Niña winter is a mild December with below normal snowfall...they almost always have very poor outcomes
  9. snowman19
    Yea, it looks like an extended run of RNA coming up. Will be interesting to see what it looks like come the beginning of December
  10. snowman19
    Unusual for sure. If the CANSIPS is correct, you have to pray for help on the PAC side...question is will you get it with a coupled, strong La Niña in place? It shows absolutely no help at all from the AO and NAO from Dec-Mar. Positive AO and NAO as far as the eye can see
  11. snowman19
    FWIW the new CANSIPS is projecting an extremely mild November
  12. snowman19
    Whoever told you that the MJO is going to be in phase 8, 1, 2 this winter is wishcasting. Phases 3 through 6 are the ones that will be favored
  13. snowman19
    Yes, this may actually be the strongest Niña we’ve seen since ‘88-‘89 when all is said and done, if some of these forecasts are correct. I believe the UKMET has this thing peaking at -2.0C trimonthly. If that’s correct, it would be in the same category as ‘73-‘74
  14. snowman19
    @donsutherland1 Looks like ENSO region 3.4 has crossed the threshold into “strong” territory. Now -1.6C. I guess the models that were showing this happening in November and December back in late August/early September weren’t so crazy after all. This La Niña isn’t playing around, it’s fully coupled with the atmosphere now.
  15. snowman19
    Right now the SST configuration in the North Atlantic looks awful for -NAO. This is definitely not what you want to see
  16. snowman19
    This would lend support to the BAMWX winter forecast IF it holds, Stadiumwave just pointed this out in the New England forum...the coldest anomalies in the ENSO zones have moved west. Definitely a bad sign:
  17. snowman19
    Agreed, it looks very ugly going into November. It was a concern HM, BAMWX and a few other mets had mentioned a couple of months ago...the massive amount of smoke from the wildfires that got ejected into the stratosphere, the +QBO, the record low arctic sea ice. The SPV looks to strengthen very substantially going into November as well...
  18. snowman19
    Yea, I saw that, it was a good synopsis. I’m just having a problem believing that it’s going to be THAT bad of a winter. IMO, I don’t think it’s likely, but I may be wrong
  19. snowman19
    Just took a look at it, what they are predicting is actually worse than last winter, if that’s even possible. Just wall to wall ugliness...
  20. snowman19
    Not really. They predicted a solidly colder and snowier than normal winter for the east last year. They changed their forecast in mid-December when they saw it was a lost cause
  21. snowman19
    There was a study published years ago that found that a positive QBO becomes a problem for high latitude blocking once it gets over +10 (don’t quote me but I believe that was the threshold given) during the winter months. The stronger the +QBO gets, the more it promotes strong westerlies/zonal flow
  22. snowman19
    I’m looking now....I know it was said that both models are forecasting a strong La Niña, if I find it, I’ll give you the links right away
  23. snowman19
    Read on Twitter earlier that Henry Margusity is supposedly hyping on his paid site that there’s a classic tripole in the Atlantic SSTs that will lead to a -NAO winter....if true, not sure what he’s looking at, but we have anything but a classic tripole right now: VS what we have:
  24. snowman19
    DT lol Has he gotten a winter forecast right in the last 4 years? I lost all respect for him when I saw him wish cancer on someone who disagreed with him a few years back
  25. snowman19
    If you look back at La Nina winters in the NYC metro area, they are also screwed without AO/NAO assist. All the good La Niña winters were predominantly negative AO/NAO, the bad ones were predominantly positive AO/NAO
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