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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    The only model showing a snow event in the metro area is the Euro. All the new 12Z model runs NAM, GFS, CMC, UKMET, ICON are strictly all rain events, once again. The GEFS just went way north into far upstate NY with any accumulating snow
  2. snowman19
    The Euro is all by itself, in a world all to its own. No other model shows anything even close to what it does. GFS, ICON, NAM, CMC, UKMET, all nothing, like not even a trace. That should be a huge red flag
  3. snowman19
    For what? It’s an all rain event
  4. snowman19
    That heatwave is creating a positive feedback loop with the SSTs there, warming them up even more, the convection just releases even more heat (latent heat) and keeps it going. Going to be hard to break at this point
  5. snowman19
    If that actually happens (phase 4/5, then COD and back to 4/5 late month), that would cook the rest of this month and into at least the beginning of February...
  6. snowman19
    The period from 1/10 on looks exceptionally mild. In fact the new GFS which is normally cold biased in the longer range has temps going into the 60’s in the metro next weekend, 1/11, 1/12.....
  7. snowman19
    Great job of seeing the warm January from a distance. The period of 1/10-1/16, at least, looks to be way, way warmer than normal
  8. snowman19
    Yea, how JB actually thinks 1/6-1/12 is a great pattern for east coast snowstorms is beyond mystifying. Twilight Zone right there, I’m expecting Rod Serling to come out any minute smoking his cigarette
  9. snowman19
    Kiss of death
  10. snowman19
    Not to worry, I’m sure we’ll go into deep winter once the calendar flips to March. Same repeating pattern progression over and over again
  11. snowman19
    I do too but if I’m a betting man, March is colder than normal and most likely so is April. For whatever reason and I do believe climate change is playing some role, the -AO/-NAO shows up like clockwork around mid to late March and locks in. You can set your watch to it
  12. snowman19
    The other tendency is for -NAO/-AO blocks to form in mid to late March and lock in through the end of April
  13. snowman19
    I’m also willing to bet that March is a freezer. It’s become a yearly tradition. May be climate change related in the Pacific tropical forcing, with the wavelengths shortening at that time but there is a huge tendency for both November and March to be cold/very cold months the last several years
  14. snowman19
    The GFS long range phantom cold and blocking bias is glaring, like really bad and has been for several years
  15. snowman19
    Over the last few years, regardless of ENSO state, there is been a strong tendency for both November and March to be colder to much colder than normal on the east coast, maybe just coincidence?
  16. snowman19
    Actually no one thought March was going to end up below normal in late February last year, since your memory is good enough for you to remember specific dates of my posts (which is quite frightening, creepy, weird stalker status), I’m sure you remember every model at that time showing raging zonal flow/RNA for March. It didn’t change until early March....
  17. snowman19
    So far, Isotherm’s winter forecast has been the most accurate....
  18. snowman19
    Deep winter should show up in March as per usual for the last several winters lol March has become the new January
  19. snowman19
    Tomorrow, Thurs, Fri, Sat are going to be brutally cold. Legit arctic outbreak
  20. snowman19
    Yea I’m going to go with loss of power/heat on that lol
  21. snowman19
    Well, if the 10:1 ratio maps are showing that little, it means virtually no snow and all ice. But you go ahead and root for an ice storm. I hope you loose power for days on end through the cold snap after and your pipes all burst :-)
  22. snowman19
    Ditto for the HRDPS, under an inch. The 12K and 3K NAM are barely 2 inches up here. HRDPS: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrdps&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019121618&fh=42 12K: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019121618&fh=42 3K: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019121618&fh=42
  23. snowman19
    The new RGEM just went way north on the snow accumulations, even the 10:1 ratio map shows barely an inch even up in Rockland County. The RGEM is normally too cold. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019121618&fh=40
  24. snowman19
    People need to look at the sounding on the NAM, that’s definitely not snow north and west of the city, there is a very pronounced mid-level warm nose. Verbatim, that’s a nasty ice storm NW of NYC if correct
  25. snowman19
    Yea that initial WAA moisture slug just dies. The frontogen forcing completely collapses as it approaches the area tomorrow. The new RGEM shows it really well, it barely has an inch of snow in my neck of the woods now
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