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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    Yep, and the GEFS just is awful as the op. Horrible with storms, horrible with showing phantom high latitude blocking and extreme cold in the long range. It’s been going on for years now. It’s really very embarrassing
  2. snowman19
    Believe the GFS if you want because it’s showing snow. It’s a horrific model. And I actually sided with a colder, snowier storm with the last one and was wrong
  3. snowman19
    After the GFS’s absolutely abysmal performance with this last storm, I don’t trust it one bit. Always way too cold, real bad cold bias, bad SE bias, it doesn’t have a clue. That model is dreadful
  4. snowman19
    By the tail end of January the high latitude blocking just completely fell apart, vanished and it never came back again, right through April. Had it stayed, that winter would have easily surpassed 95-96
  5. snowman19
    When I saw the warm nose in the soundings late yesterday, I figured this was going to happen. I think I mentioned it to you. The models always underestimate mid-level warming and how far north it goes with the LLJ punching in. The mid-level low’s positions aren’t exactly stellar either. The CAD has definitely been impressive though
  6. snowman19
    You’re still getting snow? I’m all sleet no snow in Sloatsburg for close to an hour now. The mid-level warming has definitely taken over for now
  7. snowman19
    All sleet up here in Sloatsburg, started about 15 minutes ago. This is the mid-level warm nose we were talking about yesterday with the LLJ punching in
  8. snowman19
    Heavy snow and windy up in Sloatsburg. Haven’t seen it come down this good since March, 2018. Probably close to an inch an hour right now
  9. snowman19
    Agree 100%. It’s almost certainly all over in the morning, let alone the afternoon. It will be a memory by then
  10. snowman19
    It’s not only moving but those 10:1 ratio snow maps being posted are severely overdone, they are counting sleet as snow. You are going to get mixing, there’s a mid-level warm nose punching in.....
  11. snowman19
    Yep, that 10:1 map is wayyyy overdone. It counts sleet as snow and the NAM has sleet getting all the way up into Rockland County for a time. Here is the realistic NAM snowmap: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2020121518&fh=51
  12. snowman19
    Honestly can’t believe this is actually going to end up cutting west....thought this was a cut and dry case of a well offshore low track given the setup and confluence. I was wrong. Such is the way of the world....
  13. snowman19
    It’s also a fast mover, it looks to be all over and done by very early Thursday morning
  14. snowman19
    Right, but look at the setup over Canada and the Atlantic....you are not getting a tucked in/coastal hugging track with that. Also, think back to how many times models underestimate confluence
  15. snowman19
    IMO the GFS/GEFS end up being the most correct. They have been extremely consistent and unwavering for the last 2 days and make the most sense given the setup over SE Canada and the North Atlantic
  16. snowman19
    I think it’s wagons south and east from here on out, the tucked in solutions were bogus all along. You aren’t tucking in a low with a high/confluence that strong and a 50/50 vortex that powerful
  17. snowman19
    The Euro is way stronger with tomorrow, that’s going to help move the baroclinic zone further east, the 50/50 low and confluence look much stronger, storm is most likely going further east and south on this run.....
  18. snowman19
    The GFS/GEFS is probably the closest to reality
  19. snowman19
    No way in hell with this setup in the North Atlantic and SE Canada does this become a rainstorm. I don’t care what the RGEM is showing
  20. snowman19
    EPS/Euro are way too tucked in IMO. No way are you tucking in with a record strong 50/50 low and confluence that strong, color me skeptical. I think the GEFS/GFS are showing the most likely outcome, this is going to turn out suppressed/east
  21. snowman19
    We haven’t seen a setup like this since March, 2018. Given how very strong the 50/50 low and confluence are, I think the threat is east/suppressed. This may be one of the few times NYC sees more snow than the north and west suburbs. For once, I think the GFS/GEFS are onto something. I don’t buy the tucked in solutions at all. Any doubts about how strong the block was going to be are all gone, it’s no joke, there is going to one hell of a sharp cutoff to the north of NYC
  22. snowman19
    It’s going to be a monster hit, probably bigger than the GFS
  23. snowman19
    It didn’t look that impressive until the high res came out. Wow
  24. snowman19
    So far today, the Ukie is an outlier. It’s pretty weak and suppressed, unlike all the other runs we’ve seen so far
  25. snowman19
    GFS is going to show a massive hit. Look at 500mb
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