snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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The new UKMET run is ugly as it gets. It’s showing a very strong < -2C La Niña for Dec, Jan, Feb. the H5 is extremely ugly too:
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I should have said as a sweeping generality, Niñas tend to be front loaded
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@40/70 Benchmark If this La Niña were to actually peak at strong come December, how much would it change the forecast than if it were only to peak at moderate in December? EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 8 October 2020
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March is the month that is pretty much a toss up during La Niñas, some stay torchy, some go back to cold. January (more so mid-late January) and especially February are usually the torch months. November and December are normally cold
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If the Niña actually does go strong in December, we can stick a fork in winter
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A colder November and December, followed by a Jan, Feb, Mar torch would fit in perfectly with the classic “front end loaded” La Niña winter. That plot isn’t really showing a west-based, Greenland blocked -NAO, it’s showing a more east-based -NAO, as you said
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Lol That video shows how afraid Joe BUSTardi is of loosing the east coast weenie cult following he has. “Let’s mention that 2010-2011 and 1995-1996 are on my ‘analog’ list”. He’s a clown
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Judah the snake oil salesman....
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Yea, in that Euro run, December would definitely be the “better” month. You’re correct that we’d avoid an all out torch with the -NAO, which we’d have given the Pacific look (-PNA/RNA, +EPO). People didn’t like December because of the Pacific side it shows, the EPO and PNA floodgates are going to be open. Then it obviously goes all to hell for Jan and Feb
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The atmosphere has been screwy since the 15-16 super El Niño event, it obviously altered the global circulation in a big way. Don’t look at the new Euro seasonal for winter, ugly is putting it nicely, it made the new CANSIPS look good, but wow at this Euro run.....
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I don’t even bother looking at the SAI anymore. It’s proven to be completely useless snake oil. Abysmal failure several winters in a row
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This record low Arctic sea ice is disturbing. I think it’s definitely a contributing factor to the ++AO winters we’ve been seeing the last few years. It seems to be causing a positive feedback loop
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We are about to start seeing a fully coupled, ocean-atmosphere Niña start to take shape in the next few weeks. Should be interesting to see how that affects the PDO:
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The models are showing it becoming a modoki as we go into winter. Most Ninas start east and move west. Right now, it’s definitely a basin-wide event, all 4 ENSO regions are cold. ENSO region 4 has not been this cold (-0.6C) in well over a decade. The models show region 4 remaining cold throughout the winter. https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino4.png
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Henry is literally the absolute worst I’ve ever seen, hands down. Whatever he predicts, the opposite is guaranteed to happen. Last winter, he kept predicting extreme cold and snow for the east coast from November until April when he finally gave up. That’s no exaggeration either, he wouldn’t give up, he was getting roasted on Twitter. Dude seemed totally delusional
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It’s supposed to peak at moderate in December
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The CFS is such a train wreck, always the very last one to get a clue. Pretty sad when American guidance is some of the worst out there
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For anyone following; the QBO number for September just updated, it’s up to +7.95
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@40/70 Benchmark Don’t know if you saw the update yet but the QBO went up to +7.95 for September....
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I wish I still had the link, but there was a very extensive article which went into depth on the ENSO/PDO winter relationship. It argued that ENSO forces the PDO, which is why, the overwhelming majority of the time you have +PDO with a Niño and -PDO with a Niña for winter. I think +PDO/Niña winters were found to be even rarer than -PDO/Nino winters in the study.. Both combos are very rare
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95-96 QBO started positive then went negative during winter right?
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To follow up with what raindancewx said, I noticed ENSO region 4 the other day, I can’t remember when it’s been consistently this cold. The models are projecting it to stay quite cold into winter....
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Doesn’t tropical forcing normally move to the maritime continent in February in most “typical” La Niñas?
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Honestly can’t remember how long it’s been since ENSO region 4 was this cold. The models showing a moderate peak in December are looking more and more believable. I had doubts about the Niña getting beyond weak, those doubts are pretty much gone:
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@psuhoffman I think another wildcard for winter that HM keeps mentioning is the wildfires’ effects on the stratosphere....
