snowman19

It’s been mentioned before but global warming over the past 15 years has really rendered old analogs useless. It’s a completely different climate now, than it was even 15 years ago, let alone 20, 30 or 40+ years ago. Global heat budgets have changed, jet streams have been altered, Hadley cells have been altered, feedbacks and ENSO circulations have changed, sea ice loss..... Use analogs from the 50’s, 60’s, 70’s, 80’s, 90’s, etc. at your own peril IMO

The only saving grace is that this storm will be moving quickly. Had it been a slow mover, we would probably be talking rain totals reminiscent of Hurricane Irene

Another theory which was completely blown out of the water was: “low arctic sea ice will result in more high latitude blocking (-AO/-NAO)” Over the past several winters, we’ve had record low arctic sea ice levels and high latitude blocking has been non existent

Let’s hope it’s wrong

Those are some scary rain totals if correct. You are talking very serious flooding, then when the winds kick in Tuesday night with the soaked ground, you are going to have trees and power lines coming down like no one’s business

We shall see and yes, global warming I’m sure is definitely playing a factor. The people who used “low solar”, “solar minimum” and Siberian snowcover/SAI last winter to justify a cold and snowy winter forecast busted really bad and it’s not the first winter that happened either with people using those 2 factors

A La Niña is looking more and more likely by the day. I think one of the keys will be what the QBO does in the fall, if it goes positive/westerly then it may be time to worry, especially if the -PDO, -AMO continues. As far as the solar cycle I’m not so sure it correlates to winter as well as some people had thought, same story with Siberian snowcover/SAI, just look at last winter....

According to D’Aleo there is also an effect on the PNA. Westerly QBO/Niña favors more -PNA, easterly QBO/Niña favors more +PNA

Here’s another study: https://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/article/29/24/8899/34342/The-Stratospheric-Pathway-of-La-Nina

Here it is, go to page 126: https://books.google.com/books?id=PvJyVtw53Y4C&pg=PR4&lpg=PR4&dq=joe+d'aleo+nina+west&source=bl&ots=IZzwDpsLOl&sig=ACfU3U0KjJcmSsDgryXj2AK4mMRkfMomYg&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwidy63sxvfqAhX6gXIEHSDfC50Q6AEwGnoECAUQAQ#v=onepage&q=joe d'aleo nina QBO&f=false

There was a study years ago by Joe D’Aleo which showed a very strong correlation to a negative (easterly) QBO during a La Niña winter resulting in a cold eastern US. The exact opposite was true for positive (westerly) QBO during a La Niña winter, it resulted in a warm eastern US. Also, I believe there was some evidence from a different study which found that La Niña’s that occur during a solar minimum resulted in a colder stratosphere/stratospheric PV than the ones which occurred during periods of higher solar flux. I’m going to look back and see if I can find the links

December

On the bright side, the GFS and Euro are showing a nice warm shot for next weekend, 70’s, maybe even approaching 80 degrees

There might be some wet snow mixed in with the rain but as far as accumulating snow, not happening in the metro area

The NYC metro area is not going to see any accumulating snow at all tomorrow night

Stop listening to Joe Bastardi lol

There’s a mid-level pocket of extremely cold air for April sitting over us. I’m 47 degrees with snow and graupel showers. The last time I can remember temps this warm with snow falling was 2004 I believe if memory serves me correct

Lmfaoo

Why would you be cheering on cold right now?

Rain

The GFS Lmfaoo. Let it go. See you in 9 months

It’s over dude. Give up the snow wishcasts

And what’s your point? NYC isn’t seeing snow again for the next 9+ months....

He thinks it’s going to snow

Not for anywhere near NYC. That ship already sailed weeks ago