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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    Yep, that 10:1 map is wayyyy overdone. It counts sleet as snow and the NAM has sleet getting all the way up into Rockland County for a time. Here is the realistic NAM snowmap: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2020121518&fh=51
  2. snowman19
    Honestly can’t believe this is actually going to end up cutting west....thought this was a cut and dry case of a well offshore low track given the setup and confluence. I was wrong. Such is the way of the world....
  3. snowman19
    It’s also a fast mover, it looks to be all over and done by very early Thursday morning
  4. snowman19
    Right, but look at the setup over Canada and the Atlantic....you are not getting a tucked in/coastal hugging track with that. Also, think back to how many times models underestimate confluence
  5. snowman19
    IMO the GFS/GEFS end up being the most correct. They have been extremely consistent and unwavering for the last 2 days and make the most sense given the setup over SE Canada and the North Atlantic
  6. snowman19
    I think it’s wagons south and east from here on out, the tucked in solutions were bogus all along. You aren’t tucking in a low with a high/confluence that strong and a 50/50 vortex that powerful
  7. snowman19
    The Euro is way stronger with tomorrow, that’s going to help move the baroclinic zone further east, the 50/50 low and confluence look much stronger, storm is most likely going further east and south on this run.....
  8. snowman19
    The GFS/GEFS is probably the closest to reality
  9. snowman19
    No way in hell with this setup in the North Atlantic and SE Canada does this become a rainstorm. I don’t care what the RGEM is showing
  10. snowman19
    EPS/Euro are way too tucked in IMO. No way are you tucking in with a record strong 50/50 low and confluence that strong, color me skeptical. I think the GEFS/GFS are showing the most likely outcome, this is going to turn out suppressed/east
  11. snowman19
    We haven’t seen a setup like this since March, 2018. Given how very strong the 50/50 low and confluence are, I think the threat is east/suppressed. This may be one of the few times NYC sees more snow than the north and west suburbs. For once, I think the GFS/GEFS are onto something. I don’t buy the tucked in solutions at all. Any doubts about how strong the block was going to be are all gone, it’s no joke, there is going to one hell of a sharp cutoff to the north of NYC
  12. snowman19
    It’s going to be a monster hit, probably bigger than the GFS
  13. snowman19
    It didn’t look that impressive until the high res came out. Wow
  14. snowman19
    So far today, the Ukie is an outlier. It’s pretty weak and suppressed, unlike all the other runs we’ve seen so far
  15. snowman19
    GFS is going to show a massive hit. Look at 500mb
  16. snowman19
    That +PNA is the key. It’s the one feature to keep an eye on and why the Euro just did what it did. Should it fall apart, forget it
  17. snowman19
    Agree with you. The threat is cut, not suppressed IMO
  18. snowman19
    This is not a SWFE setup. This is like the argument that it’s “impossible” for a low to cut over deep snowcover. If a shortwave is amped enough in the wrong spot, it will cut
  19. snowman19
    If the PNA breaks down, it can absolutely cut
  20. snowman19
    I was joking sheesh
  21. snowman19
    Not really lol
  22. snowman19
    Yep, if the high and the +PNA spike and -NAO block are all real, then it’s a snowstorm.....a major one....if not, grab the umbrella even for the north and west suburbs in the metro area...
  23. snowman19
    That doesn’t look like a true vortex split, the model shows something, then backs off, shows something then backs off. I hope this doesn’t turn into yet another winter of chasing phantom “vortex splits” and SSWEs from now until March....
  24. snowman19
    ^This. We had pretty much 2 epic winters in a row (13-14, 14-15) with Pacific cooperation (-EPO) and zero AO and NAO cooperation. Why? Because everything is moving west to east on our side of the hemisphere. When you have garbage coming in from the PAC side, you are screwed even with a good AO/NAO under a latitude of about central New England, all it’s doing is trapping the garbage coming off the Pacific....
  25. snowman19
    The trend toward a Modoki La Niña event continues....eastern ENSO regions (1+2, 3) continue to warm while the western regions (3.4, 4) continue to cool. The CFS is still insisting that there is going to be a secondary strong peak in region 3.4 come January.....
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