snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Agree here. The 73-74 winter is real interesting, you had a raging strong La Niña (strongest in history) and a very deeply negative PDO, yet it turned out to be a pretty decent winter for cold and snow. That really illustrates your point of how important both AO and NAO blocking are for the east coast during moderate and strong La Niña events....
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Very true. I guess you also have to consider that the 73-74 super La Niña occurred during a totally different, cooler climate era. I kind of doubt that even with a complete carbon copy of 73-74 this winter, you’d have the same results in the temperature and snowfall departments....
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As Uncle W just pointed out, 73-74 was the strongest La Niña in history and had a severely negative PDO yet it was a decent winter
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Back in July, never in a million years did I think this Niña event would ever approach strong, but it appears to be doing just that. The models continue to get stronger with it. It’s now fully coupled, ENSO region 4 has dropped like a rock. There are also shades of the 88-89 strong La Niña showing up, which HM and Ben Noll have pointed out:
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Everyone knew that....except for JB, Judah Cohen and Steve DiMartino lol You know, the usual quacks....
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I doubt it goes this strong, but HM and Ben Noll have made comparisons of this year to 1988:
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The funny thing is, and they mentioned this in the New England forum, the models showing the -NAO December, also have a +AO....I would think it would be pretty rare to have a +AO/-NAO combo...usually they go + or - together, they usually aren’t out of phase with each other. I guess we’ll see
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Yea, I kinda figured strong Niñas probably didn’t differ much from moderate Niñas. I think moderate is pretty much a given now, I think there’s a possibility that it may go strong, but not a super event like the UKMET is showing with a trimonthly of < -2C
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Are you buying the models showing a strong/very strong La Niña peak?
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Yea, that would make it one of the strongest La Niñas in history. A < -2C trimonthly is crazy. I kind of doubt we are heading into a super La Niña.....
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The new UKMET run is ugly as it gets. It’s showing a very strong < -2C La Niña for Dec, Jan, Feb. the H5 is extremely ugly too:
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I should have said as a sweeping generality, Niñas tend to be front loaded
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@40/70 Benchmark If this La Niña were to actually peak at strong come December, how much would it change the forecast than if it were only to peak at moderate in December? EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 8 October 2020
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March is the month that is pretty much a toss up during La Niñas, some stay torchy, some go back to cold. January (more so mid-late January) and especially February are usually the torch months. November and December are normally cold
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If the Niña actually does go strong in December, we can stick a fork in winter
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A colder November and December, followed by a Jan, Feb, Mar torch would fit in perfectly with the classic “front end loaded” La Niña winter. That plot isn’t really showing a west-based, Greenland blocked -NAO, it’s showing a more east-based -NAO, as you said
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Lol That video shows how afraid Joe BUSTardi is of loosing the east coast weenie cult following he has. “Let’s mention that 2010-2011 and 1995-1996 are on my ‘analog’ list”. He’s a clown
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Judah the snake oil salesman....
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Yea, in that Euro run, December would definitely be the “better” month. You’re correct that we’d avoid an all out torch with the -NAO, which we’d have given the Pacific look (-PNA/RNA, +EPO). People didn’t like December because of the Pacific side it shows, the EPO and PNA floodgates are going to be open. Then it obviously goes all to hell for Jan and Feb
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The atmosphere has been screwy since the 15-16 super El Niño event, it obviously altered the global circulation in a big way. Don’t look at the new Euro seasonal for winter, ugly is putting it nicely, it made the new CANSIPS look good, but wow at this Euro run.....
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I don’t even bother looking at the SAI anymore. It’s proven to be completely useless snake oil. Abysmal failure several winters in a row
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This record low Arctic sea ice is disturbing. I think it’s definitely a contributing factor to the ++AO winters we’ve been seeing the last few years. It seems to be causing a positive feedback loop
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We are about to start seeing a fully coupled, ocean-atmosphere Niña start to take shape in the next few weeks. Should be interesting to see how that affects the PDO:
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The models are showing it becoming a modoki as we go into winter. Most Ninas start east and move west. Right now, it’s definitely a basin-wide event, all 4 ENSO regions are cold. ENSO region 4 has not been this cold (-0.6C) in well over a decade. The models show region 4 remaining cold throughout the winter. https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino4.png
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Henry is literally the absolute worst I’ve ever seen, hands down. Whatever he predicts, the opposite is guaranteed to happen. Last winter, he kept predicting extreme cold and snow for the east coast from November until April when he finally gave up. That’s no exaggeration either, he wouldn’t give up, he was getting roasted on Twitter. Dude seemed totally delusional
