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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    We still might. Just saying what the Euro shows, doesn’t mean it’s definitely happening. Still a possibility
  2. snowman19
    The Euro seasonal actually shows a -NAO in December but it’s ruined with a God awful PAC side at the same time....has a huge vortex over AK/++EPO. All the -NAO would do in that case is bring down junk PAC air. If the Euro is wrong about the PAC being that bad, then December would be the best shot at being the wintry month, it shows the next 3 months (Jan-Mar) after with just raging +NAO and +AO. There is some support for a -NAO in December, question will be how bad is the PAC at that point?
  3. snowman19
    This is potentially the strongest La Niña we’ve had in over 30 years (88-89). Pretty amazing that we’ve gone this long without a very strong La Niña.....
  4. snowman19
    Huh? This La Niña is fully coupled with the atmosphere, it’s been very well coupled for over a month. What are you talking about?
  5. snowman19
    There are hints that the stratospheric and tropospheric vortex’s may start coupling come early December, a very bad sign
  6. snowman19
    The last long stretch of horrible winters was 1979-1992. We’ve been pretty lucky ever since then, especially the period from 2000-2015.....
  7. snowman19
    Just stating fact, nowhere did I hope for anything. Please stop derailing this thread with your conspiracy theories.
  8. snowman19
    The new Euro seasonal is as ugly as it gets. Dec-Mar are a total disaster
  9. snowman19
    Think another issue is the massive amount of wildfire smoke that got pumped into the stratosphere, that would also promote +AO
  10. snowman19
    At least Larry’s got Henry Margusity on his side, always a plus.....
  11. snowman19
    It would lend support to the models showing a very strong La Niña come December
  12. snowman19
    The CFS is forecasting a prolonged period of very strong easterlies over the ENSO regions starting in mid to late November. This would support more robust La Niña strengthening going into December
  13. snowman19
    If the CFS is correct, very strong easterlies return across the ENSO regions in mid to late November, this would support another robust round of La Niña strengthening
  14. snowman19
    The CFSV2 is now predicting a historic, “super” La Niña. It shows ENSO region 3.4 dropping down to -2.25C...which would make it the strongest La Niña in history....surpassing 73-74 and 88-89
  15. snowman19
    The latest model runs are forecasting the strongest La Niña in history, they show region 3.4 dropping to -2.25C. If it happens, it would take 1st place over ‘73-‘74 and ‘88-‘89.
  16. snowman19
    Agreed. We’re in a basin-wide strong La Niña. If we don’t see legit -AO and west-based -NAO blocking (east-based -NAO won’t help), we will be in deep trouble. The PAC side is most likely going to be garbage, -PNA/RNA, +EPO, +WPO
  17. snowman19
    People need to wait until the beginning of December to see what effects the upcoming -PNA/RNA pattern has on the SSTs off the western North American coast and the GOA. @Allsnow mentioned this yesterday, but there’s a possibility that all those warm anomalies get completely eroded away in the next several weeks
  18. snowman19
    What’s most striking is how cold Nino region 4 has gotten, it’s been over a decade since it’s been this cold
  19. snowman19
    I was thinking that too. Once the wavelengths start to shorten up again in March, those MJO phases don’t have the same mild effects on the pattern as they do in the dead of winter. If I’m a betting man, March will be cold, assuming everything progresses that way. What you don’t want to see in a La Niña winter is a mild December with below normal snowfall...they almost always have very poor outcomes
  20. snowman19
    Yea, it looks like an extended run of RNA coming up. Will be interesting to see what it looks like come the beginning of December
  21. snowman19
    Unusual for sure. If the CANSIPS is correct, you have to pray for help on the PAC side...question is will you get it with a coupled, strong La Niña in place? It shows absolutely no help at all from the AO and NAO from Dec-Mar. Positive AO and NAO as far as the eye can see
  22. snowman19
    FWIW the new CANSIPS is projecting an extremely mild November
  23. snowman19
    Whoever told you that the MJO is going to be in phase 8, 1, 2 this winter is wishcasting. Phases 3 through 6 are the ones that will be favored
  24. snowman19
    Yes, this may actually be the strongest Niña we’ve seen since ‘88-‘89 when all is said and done, if some of these forecasts are correct. I believe the UKMET has this thing peaking at -2.0C trimonthly. If that’s correct, it would be in the same category as ‘73-‘74
  25. snowman19
    @donsutherland1 Looks like ENSO region 3.4 has crossed the threshold into “strong” territory. Now -1.6C. I guess the models that were showing this happening in November and December back in late August/early September weren’t so crazy after all. This La Niña isn’t playing around, it’s fully coupled with the atmosphere now.
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