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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    Yea, we may be singing a very different tune in just over 4 weeks (late January)
  2. snowman19
    GFS too cold again and on its own yet again
  3. snowman19
    No, if there’s really a full latitude trough out west it’s not “correcting” to anything
  4. snowman19
    The new Euro has a full latitude trough on the west coast (strong -PNA) for this storm. If that’s correct, it’s going to cut
  5. snowman19
    You also need to buy a +PNA....there’s a full latitude trough on the west coast
  6. snowman19
    This progression is not shocking at all in a La Niña which is front end loaded. December through early to mid January typically are the colder/snowier period, then late January, February (especially) and March are when the classic La Niña torch pattern normally hits
  7. snowman19
    It’s an EPO problem too, troughing over AK
  8. snowman19
    That’s one issue, the other issue is the PAC side at the time
  9. snowman19
    It seems like every winter from November through March there is non stop hype of “major/huge/epic/historic” SSWs, SPV splits, flips, dips, electric slides....
  10. snowman19
    In Fort Kent, Maine? Absolutely!! Flash Freeze potential there!!
  11. snowman19
    It’s just FROPA. The GFS loves to show phantom anafronts and phantom lows developing off shore on cold fronts....none of which actually happen. It’s been doing this for years, seen this before, we all know how this movie ends....
  12. snowman19
    Yep, and the GEFS just is awful as the op. Horrible with storms, horrible with showing phantom high latitude blocking and extreme cold in the long range. It’s been going on for years now. It’s really very embarrassing
  13. snowman19
    Believe the GFS if you want because it’s showing snow. It’s a horrific model. And I actually sided with a colder, snowier storm with the last one and was wrong
  14. snowman19
    After the GFS’s absolutely abysmal performance with this last storm, I don’t trust it one bit. Always way too cold, real bad cold bias, bad SE bias, it doesn’t have a clue. That model is dreadful
  15. snowman19
    By the tail end of January the high latitude blocking just completely fell apart, vanished and it never came back again, right through April. Had it stayed, that winter would have easily surpassed 95-96
  16. snowman19
    When I saw the warm nose in the soundings late yesterday, I figured this was going to happen. I think I mentioned it to you. The models always underestimate mid-level warming and how far north it goes with the LLJ punching in. The mid-level low’s positions aren’t exactly stellar either. The CAD has definitely been impressive though
  17. snowman19
    You’re still getting snow? I’m all sleet no snow in Sloatsburg for close to an hour now. The mid-level warming has definitely taken over for now
  18. snowman19
    All sleet up here in Sloatsburg, started about 15 minutes ago. This is the mid-level warm nose we were talking about yesterday with the LLJ punching in
  19. snowman19
    Heavy snow and windy up in Sloatsburg. Haven’t seen it come down this good since March, 2018. Probably close to an inch an hour right now
  20. snowman19
    Agree 100%. It’s almost certainly all over in the morning, let alone the afternoon. It will be a memory by then
  21. snowman19
    It’s not only moving but those 10:1 ratio snow maps being posted are severely overdone, they are counting sleet as snow. You are going to get mixing, there’s a mid-level warm nose punching in.....
  22. snowman19
    Yep, that 10:1 map is wayyyy overdone. It counts sleet as snow and the NAM has sleet getting all the way up into Rockland County for a time. Here is the realistic NAM snowmap: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2020121518&fh=51
  23. snowman19
    Honestly can’t believe this is actually going to end up cutting west....thought this was a cut and dry case of a well offshore low track given the setup and confluence. I was wrong. Such is the way of the world....
  24. snowman19
    It’s also a fast mover, it looks to be all over and done by very early Thursday morning
  25. snowman19
    Right, but look at the setup over Canada and the Atlantic....you are not getting a tucked in/coastal hugging track with that. Also, think back to how many times models underestimate confluence
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