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snowman19

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  1. snowman19
    The NAM has wanted nothing to do with it for days now. There are definitely going to be p-type issues looking at the soundings, the usual mid-level warm nose will be there and some areas will see boundary layer issues as well. Nothing really has changed since yesterday, still 1-2/1-3 inches of snow
  2. snowman19
    That’s cute. Your call of “a 4-8 inch type deal” for the metro is looking marvelous lol And this turned into 2 separate waves, the first wave did nothing for us today, which is what I said would happen. And I like how you used my rent free quote from the DM. That was good
  3. snowman19
    Yeah, surface temps. The low level surface/boundary layer temps don’t matter, there’s going to be mid-level warming issues, it’s going to turn to sleet and freezing rain....plain rain for some areas in southern parts
  4. snowman19
    Yep and when you factor in the mid-level warm nose and boundary layer issues, weak lift profiles, marginal temps, those 10:1 ratio snowmaps are seriously flawed, this is a general 1-2 spot 3 inch snowfall event before p-type issues. Weak sauce for the metro area. But like you said, consider this a win and enjoy
  5. snowman19
    @AllsnowNow it’s the 2nd week of February for the epic pattern lol Just keep moving the goal posts, eventually you’ll be right by default
  6. snowman19
    I see the hype machine is back running on all 8 cylinders for February 2nd and 3rd lol It’s maddening isn’t it? So far, we have had over 2 1/2 months of “great potential”, people have been hyping since mid November, what have we gotten in the NYC metro area? One storm (December 16th).....well over a month ago and the snow was long gone, melted, by Christmas Day. Nothing but moving the goal posts, moving the finish line forward and kicking the can down the road ever since then. This month was an unmitigated disaster. The very snowy and cold pattern is always just 8-10 days away. Now, February 2-3 is being hyped as another very snowy period....over 8 days away. Groundhog Day, hit the repeat button. I also see the twitterologists hyping a “major” SSW in late February. Even if it was to actually happen, what the hell good is it going to do at the end of February? There is a lag of weeks before its effects are felt on the troposphere....that would make it mid to late March before anything would even happen from it. By then, winter is over, done, stick a fork in it
  7. snowman19
    It’s maddening isn’t it? So far, we have had over 2 1/2 months of “great potential”, people have been hyping since mid November, what have we gotten in the NYC metro? One storm (December 16th).....well over a month ago and the snow was long gone, melted, by Christmas Day. Nothing but moving the goal posts, moving the finish line forward and kicking the can down the road ever since then. This month was an unmitigated disaster. The very snowy and cold pattern is always just 8-10 days away. Now, February 2-3 is being hyped as another very snowy period....over 8 days away. Groundhog Day, hit the repeat button. I also see the twitterologists hyping a “major” SSW in late February. Even if it was to actually happen, what the hell good is it going to do at the end of February? There is a lag of weeks before its effects are felt on the troposphere....that would make it mid to late March before anything would even happen from it. By then, winter is over, done, stick a fork in it, it’s over Johnny
  8. snowman19
    In a week from now we turn the page onto February....discuss.....
  9. snowman19
    This event is weak sauce on the new model runs, weak lift, minimal QPF, poor upper level/jet dynamics, light precip and now the models have a mid-level warm nose punching all the way up to my neck of the woods, it’s going to turn to sleet. Some portions of the metro even see boundary layer issues and go to rain. This is looking more and more like a nothing burger
  10. snowman19
    People need to enjoy the 1-3 inches coming and call it a day. Very minor, puny event at best. Like I said earlier, consider it a win
  11. snowman19
    That “sneaky” feature Tuesday is one of the contributors (along with others) helping to suppress the Thursday storm OTS
  12. snowman19
    This never was anything more than a minor 1-2, 1-3 inch event. This setup screamed weak suppressed/sheared for many days now, some people chose to ignore that and wishcast it into a 4-8/3-6 inch event
  13. snowman19
    The Euro and NAM want nothing to do with Mon night - Tues....they shear it to shreds. The models that do have more, aren’t showing much better. This is probably a general 1-2 inches of snow for the metro area. At this point take it as a win.....
  14. snowman19
    The new outlook from the CPC going with a warm start to February. Also, North American snowcover is the lowest it’s ever been in over 15 years.....
  15. snowman19
    The EPS supports the op
  16. snowman19
    The new Euro gives Bermuda a snowstorm next Friday
  17. snowman19
    Yep. If the NAM idea is correct it’s not going to so much as flurry north of Cape May
  18. snowman19
    It’s getting put through the meat grinder with that block and the vortex pressing down. Shearing out. Don’t get invested with this one IMO
  19. snowman19
    It gives New England nothing now. You can see the block press. It is nothing like the Ukie or CMC
  20. snowman19
    Euro looks like it is about to go suppressed and sheared
  21. snowman19
    Sure was, it was a huge bust, as was several other storms the last couple of winters it overamped. It just drives this storm right into a block like it doesn’t exist. I think the CMC is too far north as well, but the Ukie is just asinine
  22. snowman19
    The Ukie solution is ludicrous. It drives the storm into a block. It was way overamped several times the last 2 winters. Almost guaranteed to be a huge outlier when the Euro comes out
  23. snowman19
    This is not confluence, it’s a full fledged west-based -NAO block. The storm will only go so far north then hit a brick wall, the block is real, suppression is definitely a very real possibility. Good luck getting a SE ridge press with a -NAO block like that
  24. snowman19
    You can doubt suppression all you want but it’s real
  25. snowman19
    This setup is nothing at all like the last several winters where a storm was modeled south, then had a last minute north trend to give us snow. The only reason why that was happening was because there was no NAO blocking whatsoever, the +NAO was allowing the SE ridge to pump and that caused the last minute correction north. We have a 180 degree opposite setup now. There will be a legit west based -NAO block pressing down, this storm will only get so far north and that’s it. The block is not going to allow the last minute SE ridge pump this time. Suppression is absolutely believable and the most likely scenario
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