Jump to content

snowman19

Daily Post Limited Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    8,783

  • Joined

 Content Type 

Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    This is why it holds weight that the models are showing a canonical Niña look at the end of this month and into February: Nino region 4 is over -1.0C....can’t remember when it’s been this cold:
  2. snowman19
    It’s not only weakening the +PNA it’s lost the -EPO, which isn’t a shock, it’s been doing that for years now
  3. snowman19
    Agreed. It is not a good look for us through at least 1/16. The window for us to score is definitely narrowing, I’d say the time to watch is 1/17 - 1/28....by 1/28, the models want to go canonical La Niña; Aleutian ridge, -PNA/+EPO and they start to quickly lose the -AO/-NAO couplet, both are going positive in the closing days of this month. Far out obviously, but right now it doesn’t look pretty going into the beginning of February
  4. snowman19
    Agree. It’s probably going to be post 1/16 for any real snow threats
  5. snowman19
    We need to score in the next 3 weeks IMO. Think we have a good shot too, especially after 1/16 or so. I think the pattern becomes hostile at the tail end of this month and February
  6. snowman19
    Isotherm thinks the shift to canonical Niña at the end of this month and February is real. It would fit Niña climo
  7. snowman19
    I was waiting for the CMC to have one of its classic overamped rogue runs....there it is lol
  8. snowman19
    That would fit the classic La Niña “playbook” perfectly. Usually the canonical Niña pattern establishes itself at the end of January/beginning of February as the tropical convective forcing moves to the Maritime Continent
  9. snowman19
    Exactly. If something is going to happen, more than likely it’s post 1/16 or so
  10. snowman19
    It looks like they want to pop a big Aleutian ridge at the end of this month. Whether or not that actually happens is the big question since we are talking almost 4 weeks away....
  11. snowman19
    The op Euro has been garbage so far this winter, not only too amped, but has been flip flopping like crazy
  12. snowman19
    Who knows, maybe this time, at long last, after over 3 winters of the models showing it in the long-range and being dead wrong, there’s really a -EPO period, until it actually happens though, it’s the boy who cried wolf. I have no problem believing the +PNA spike however I think that happens. I guess we’ll see about this big -EPO
  13. snowman19
    Eric hyping another long-range -EPO....he did this back in November, hyped a huge -EPO period coming for December which of course never actually verified....none of the advertised long-range -EPO periods on the models have verified for years now. The last 3 winters in a row have had the models popping phantom negative EPO’s in the long-range, only to have them disappear and never verify. Fail after fail. I’ll believe it when it actually happens in real time, not fantasy on a long-range model. People continue to be fooled by the same mirage over and over. Can I see a +PNA period? Sure. +PNA is believable, but -EPO? I have very, very serious doubts
  14. snowman19
    I’ll believe the -EPO when we actually see it happen in real time. How many times now over the last few winters...even as recently as the big -EPO period that was advertised in the long range back in November has it been a total fail? The models have been popping phantom -EPO’s in the long range for years now only to have them disappear and never verify. I can see a +PNA, sure, but -EPO? Color me real skeptical
  15. snowman19
    Problem is the SSWE is dumping all the vodka cold into the other side of the pole, into Eurasia
  16. snowman19
    For starters, the arctic cold went to our side of the pole, among other key differences. Read up: https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/19/10303/2019/
  17. snowman19
    The March, 2018 SSW was not “the same thing” not even close. It was a completely different event and evolution than this one
  18. snowman19
    Yep this SSWE is benefitting Eurasia. This is why you don’t assume that every SSW turns the eastern seaboard into an arctic tundra. All the cold is dumping into the other side of the pole. Of course it can still snow with January climo, but the NAO and PNA are definitely going to have to cooperate as will storm tracks. Air masses are going to be marginal. It seems the EPO is going to be uncooperative for the foreseeable future
  19. snowman19
    My area is staying above freezing at the surface tonight. But you’re right, you are going to have to dynamically cool the column with strong UVV’s/lift and heavy precip rates to turn it back over to all snow. The models aren’t very impressive with QPF for the duration right now though
  20. snowman19
    This is why those 10:1 ratio snow maps are BS. If there’s sleet, there’s a mid-level warm nose, those 10:1 maps count sleet as snow. That’s why I use the positive snow depth maps in these very marginal situations. The ratios are more like 5:1 tonight given the mid-level warming situation and the garbage boundary layer....those more accurate snow depth maps for the HRRR and NAM give my area less than an inch of snow for the duration
  21. snowman19
    Sleet here now....obviously a mid-level warm nose has worked in
  22. snowman19
    I’m 34, very light drizzle in Sloatsburg. The new NAM and HRRR are very unimpressive for snow with the next round here in Rockland
  23. snowman19
    The new HRRR, NAM (12K, 3K) are nothing burgers south of Orange and Putnam counties. Rockland and Westchester may not see more than an inch out of this and it looks like it’s going to turn to rain for several hours
  24. snowman19
    Yep also weak and disjointed. It has it flipping between rain and snow here in Rockland and what snow falls is light. This is trending into pretty much a nothing burger
  25. snowman19
    I’m sorry. 84. Totally misspoke. 84
×
×
  • Create New...