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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    This event is weak sauce on the new model runs, weak lift, minimal QPF, poor upper level/jet dynamics, light precip and now the models have a mid-level warm nose punching all the way up to my neck of the woods, it’s going to turn to sleet. Some portions of the metro even see boundary layer issues and go to rain. This is looking more and more like a nothing burger
  2. snowman19
    People need to enjoy the 1-3 inches coming and call it a day. Very minor, puny event at best. Like I said earlier, consider it a win
  3. snowman19
    That “sneaky” feature Tuesday is one of the contributors (along with others) helping to suppress the Thursday storm OTS
  4. snowman19
    This never was anything more than a minor 1-2, 1-3 inch event. This setup screamed weak suppressed/sheared for many days now, some people chose to ignore that and wishcast it into a 4-8/3-6 inch event
  5. snowman19
    The Euro and NAM want nothing to do with Mon night - Tues....they shear it to shreds. The models that do have more, aren’t showing much better. This is probably a general 1-2 inches of snow for the metro area. At this point take it as a win.....
  6. snowman19
    The new outlook from the CPC going with a warm start to February. Also, North American snowcover is the lowest it’s ever been in over 15 years.....
  7. snowman19
    The EPS supports the op
  8. snowman19
    The new Euro gives Bermuda a snowstorm next Friday
  9. snowman19
    Yep. If the NAM idea is correct it’s not going to so much as flurry north of Cape May
  10. snowman19
    It’s getting put through the meat grinder with that block and the vortex pressing down. Shearing out. Don’t get invested with this one IMO
  11. snowman19
    It gives New England nothing now. You can see the block press. It is nothing like the Ukie or CMC
  12. snowman19
    Euro looks like it is about to go suppressed and sheared
  13. snowman19
    Sure was, it was a huge bust, as was several other storms the last couple of winters it overamped. It just drives this storm right into a block like it doesn’t exist. I think the CMC is too far north as well, but the Ukie is just asinine
  14. snowman19
    The Ukie solution is ludicrous. It drives the storm into a block. It was way overamped several times the last 2 winters. Almost guaranteed to be a huge outlier when the Euro comes out
  15. snowman19
    This is not confluence, it’s a full fledged west-based -NAO block. The storm will only go so far north then hit a brick wall, the block is real, suppression is definitely a very real possibility. Good luck getting a SE ridge press with a -NAO block like that
  16. snowman19
    You can doubt suppression all you want but it’s real
  17. snowman19
    This setup is nothing at all like the last several winters where a storm was modeled south, then had a last minute north trend to give us snow. The only reason why that was happening was because there was no NAO blocking whatsoever, the +NAO was allowing the SE ridge to pump and that caused the last minute correction north. We have a 180 degree opposite setup now. There will be a legit west based -NAO block pressing down, this storm will only get so far north and that’s it. The block is not going to allow the last minute SE ridge pump this time. Suppression is absolutely believable and the most likely scenario
  18. snowman19
    But the last several years, we had a +NAO which allowed the SER to flex and that’s why we kept seeing the last minute “north trend” we never had a west based -NAO block pressing down. The flow is also screaming across the CONUS next week, this is only going to get so far north before it hits a brick wall. That block means business, it’s not going to let the SER flex and cause a north trend. I think the threat is suppressed, not trending further north
  19. snowman19
    Extremely unstable/convective right now. Cumulus congestus and snow showers, very cold mid-levels. Light dustings in spots
  20. snowman19
    Agreed. Next week’s synoptic setup has suppression written all over it, unless things change big time, I can’t envision a cutter
  21. snowman19
    I feel the same way, it’s a suppression threat, the jet on roids, the block, this could very well miss us to the south. I think a cutter would be extremely unlikely
  22. snowman19
    It looks like the threat next week is suppressed, not cutter, given the -NAO block position and northern branch jet configuration
  23. snowman19
    After last winter’s debacle, I don’t trust them as far as I can throw them. They were just dreadful, they kept showing a great pattern that never materialized, so many people got burnt by them
  24. snowman19
    @bluewave @donsutherland1 Nino region 4 in a free fall, now -1.2C. When was the last time it’s been this cold? I honestly can’t remember seeing SSTs that cold in region 4. Over the last decade, it’s consistently been the warmest ENSO region
  25. snowman19
    Yep, February is in trouble, big trouble. Both -NAO/-AO showing signs of breaking down in the beginning of February, couple that with MJO phase 6/-GLAAM and you have a torch-a-rama in the east. If anyone was wondering where the canonical La Niña pattern has been, here it comes.....
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