Jump to content

snowman19

Daily Post Limited Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    8,783

  • Joined

 Content Type 

Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    There is a good snowstorm coming for NYC, no doubt. Twitter is ridiculous though, I’m seeing people comparing this storm to February, 2006, January, 2016, December, 2010, February, 2010, January, 1996. Ludicrous comparisons, completely different setups, totally. Some people go with the most historic snowstorms ever in NYC every time a storm is coming and say they are great analogs and identical setups and run with it for hype and clickbait. It’s like everytime there’s a storm off the east coast, those historic storms become “great analogs” and “identical setups” to some, every winter.....
  2. snowman19
    This is looking more and more like a NYC and south snowstorm. The op Euro/EPS is deadly in this time frame and has been very consistent since 12z yesterday, we’ll see what it does at 12z today, but it’s definitely not encouraging for the northern/northwest suburbs. NYC is the place to be for this one, I can see a very sharp cutoff to next to nothing north of the city, IMO
  3. snowman19
    It was good for NYC, cutoff on snow north and west. Not everyone in this forum lives in NYC
  4. snowman19
    For NYC maybe, areas to the north and west don’t look good. But look at the new ICON, GFS, and even the NAM at the end of its run, they are all going south now like the Euro/EPS. The 12z Ukie was the start of the trend
  5. snowman19
    The EPS looks the same. Agrees with the Euro operational
  6. snowman19
    Similar trolls lol regardless, I don’t have anything personal against anyone on here. I love weather. Do I lean warm...Yes, absolutely, but why shouldn’t I in this new climate? It’s whatever lol I enjoy talking about weather as you know, just a shame that you get trolled and attacked on here by the usual suspects when your narrative isn’t consistently “cold and snowy for the east coast” When I get trolled I respond lol
  7. snowman19
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2021012800&fh=240
  8. snowman19
    EPS disagrees and pumps the SE ridge big time
  9. snowman19
    That was funny lmfaooo
  10. snowman19
    @Allsnow“La Niña is dead” - over a month ago from you lol another good one. Reality:
  11. snowman19
    @AllsnowKarma. It’s going to be funny when we have a raging SE ridge by the end of the 1st week of February lol It’s already starting to show up on guidance. The ‘SSW, epic cold and snow blocked January’ turned into an epic, monumental fail. What’s your other favorite saying...oh yea “CCB ownage” lol BTW, I’m still waiting for my “4-8 inch type deal” you said yesterday was going to be....I got a big inch, comical. I can’t wait to troll you lol
  12. snowman19
    Yea, phase 7 in a La Niña winter, especially as you get beyond the first week of February is a strong warm signal in the east
  13. snowman19
    It’s weird because normally, almost always really, with the big coastal snowstorms, the GFS is way too far south/suppressed and consistently shows a miss, then it finally gets a clue in the closing few days before the storm and shows a hit like the other models already had been. This is the opposite right now
  14. snowman19
    Gone to light drizzle here now, around 1 inch of snow total, still some sleet mixing in at times
  15. snowman19
    Hot off the presses....From the National Weather Service: (And this is for Rockland), only up to 2 inches of snow total from this, for NYC, even less, up to 1 inch total. This is a very, very minor snow event. Please stop trying to turn this into something it’s not. Rockland: https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ069&warncounty=NYC087&firewxzone=NYZ069&local_place1=Montebello NY&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisory&lat=41.1288&lon=-74.1181#.YA8y8aQ8IlQ Here’s NYC, 1 inch total: https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ073&warncounty=NYC005&firewxzone=NYZ073&local_place1=Bronx NY&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisory&lat=40.8489&lon=-73.8762#.YA8z_aQ8IlQ
  16. snowman19
    Maybe for New England
  17. snowman19
    Yep and the ratios aren’t going to be that good with mixing issues, the actual snow amounts are going to be less. Some of those totals on that map are sleet counted as snow
  18. snowman19
    The NAM has wanted nothing to do with it for days now. There are definitely going to be p-type issues looking at the soundings, the usual mid-level warm nose will be there and some areas will see boundary layer issues as well. Nothing really has changed since yesterday, still 1-2/1-3 inches of snow
  19. snowman19
    That’s cute. Your call of “a 4-8 inch type deal” for the metro is looking marvelous lol And this turned into 2 separate waves, the first wave did nothing for us today, which is what I said would happen. And I like how you used my rent free quote from the DM. That was good
  20. snowman19
    Yeah, surface temps. The low level surface/boundary layer temps don’t matter, there’s going to be mid-level warming issues, it’s going to turn to sleet and freezing rain....plain rain for some areas in southern parts
  21. snowman19
    Yep and when you factor in the mid-level warm nose and boundary layer issues, weak lift profiles, marginal temps, those 10:1 ratio snowmaps are seriously flawed, this is a general 1-2 spot 3 inch snowfall event before p-type issues. Weak sauce for the metro area. But like you said, consider this a win and enjoy
  22. snowman19
    @AllsnowNow it’s the 2nd week of February for the epic pattern lol Just keep moving the goal posts, eventually you’ll be right by default
  23. snowman19
    I see the hype machine is back running on all 8 cylinders for February 2nd and 3rd lol It’s maddening isn’t it? So far, we have had over 2 1/2 months of “great potential”, people have been hyping since mid November, what have we gotten in the NYC metro area? One storm (December 16th).....well over a month ago and the snow was long gone, melted, by Christmas Day. Nothing but moving the goal posts, moving the finish line forward and kicking the can down the road ever since then. This month was an unmitigated disaster. The very snowy and cold pattern is always just 8-10 days away. Now, February 2-3 is being hyped as another very snowy period....over 8 days away. Groundhog Day, hit the repeat button. I also see the twitterologists hyping a “major” SSW in late February. Even if it was to actually happen, what the hell good is it going to do at the end of February? There is a lag of weeks before its effects are felt on the troposphere....that would make it mid to late March before anything would even happen from it. By then, winter is over, done, stick a fork in it
  24. snowman19
    It’s maddening isn’t it? So far, we have had over 2 1/2 months of “great potential”, people have been hyping since mid November, what have we gotten in the NYC metro? One storm (December 16th).....well over a month ago and the snow was long gone, melted, by Christmas Day. Nothing but moving the goal posts, moving the finish line forward and kicking the can down the road ever since then. This month was an unmitigated disaster. The very snowy and cold pattern is always just 8-10 days away. Now, February 2-3 is being hyped as another very snowy period....over 8 days away. Groundhog Day, hit the repeat button. I also see the twitterologists hyping a “major” SSW in late February. Even if it was to actually happen, what the hell good is it going to do at the end of February? There is a lag of weeks before its effects are felt on the troposphere....that would make it mid to late March before anything would even happen from it. By then, winter is over, done, stick a fork in it, it’s over Johnny
  25. snowman19
    In a week from now we turn the page onto February....discuss.....
×
×
  • Create New...