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snowman19

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  1. snowman19
    I knew when I saw his posts hyping the best east coast snow pattern since January, 1996, his forecast calling for a cold and snowy winter, and declaring La Niña dead and his bragging that “DTRex” had ended the streak of bad winters, it was the kiss of death....
  2. snowman19
    I completely disagree. This is the strongest trade wind surge we have seen since October. Nino 3.4 is going to drop. Also as Don already pointed out, this is the lowest SOI we’ve had since 2012. Region 3.4 SSTs are solidly in moderate territory. Oceanic and atmospheric indicators certainly show a healthy Niña, not a dead one. It’s also showing that this is very likely to be a slow fade in late winter, not a sudden shift into Neutral/La Nada
  3. snowman19
    @bluewave@donsutherland1 People who have written this La Niña off as dying may want to reconsider. A massive trade wind surge is coming. Region 3.4 is about to see an SST drop again. Maybe the CFS idea of a secondary peak in January isn’t so crazy after all:
  4. snowman19
    Agree with you. Next week looks real doubtful for a snowstorm in the metro area, even New Years Day. New England may be a different story, especially central and northern New England.
  5. snowman19
    Unless there are some big changes soon, I don’t think we can be real optimistic about next week for a major snowstorm
  6. snowman19
    The argument that ENSO is completely meaningless and that there is no such thing as La Niña or El Niño patterns is asinine, nonsensical. It’s not even worthy of a debate
  7. snowman19
    To say that ENSO is totally meaningless and that there’s no such thing as El Niño or La Niña patterns is completely and totally absurd. That’s ludicrous
  8. snowman19
    If the tropical convective forcing moves to the Maritime Continent in late January, as is the typical canonical La Niña progression, people won’t be asking “where is the La Niña pattern?” anymore come February
  9. snowman19
    Yea, we may be singing a very different tune in just over 4 weeks (late January)
  10. snowman19
    GFS too cold again and on its own yet again
  11. snowman19
    No, if there’s really a full latitude trough out west it’s not “correcting” to anything
  12. snowman19
    The new Euro has a full latitude trough on the west coast (strong -PNA) for this storm. If that’s correct, it’s going to cut
  13. snowman19
    You also need to buy a +PNA....there’s a full latitude trough on the west coast
  14. snowman19
    This progression is not shocking at all in a La Niña which is front end loaded. December through early to mid January typically are the colder/snowier period, then late January, February (especially) and March are when the classic La Niña torch pattern normally hits
  15. snowman19
    It’s an EPO problem too, troughing over AK
  16. snowman19
    That’s one issue, the other issue is the PAC side at the time
  17. snowman19
    It seems like every winter from November through March there is non stop hype of “major/huge/epic/historic” SSWs, SPV splits, flips, dips, electric slides....
  18. snowman19
    In Fort Kent, Maine? Absolutely!! Flash Freeze potential there!!
  19. snowman19
    It’s just FROPA. The GFS loves to show phantom anafronts and phantom lows developing off shore on cold fronts....none of which actually happen. It’s been doing this for years, seen this before, we all know how this movie ends....
  20. snowman19
    Yep, and the GEFS just is awful as the op. Horrible with storms, horrible with showing phantom high latitude blocking and extreme cold in the long range. It’s been going on for years now. It’s really very embarrassing
  21. snowman19
    Believe the GFS if you want because it’s showing snow. It’s a horrific model. And I actually sided with a colder, snowier storm with the last one and was wrong
  22. snowman19
    After the GFS’s absolutely abysmal performance with this last storm, I don’t trust it one bit. Always way too cold, real bad cold bias, bad SE bias, it doesn’t have a clue. That model is dreadful
  23. snowman19
    By the tail end of January the high latitude blocking just completely fell apart, vanished and it never came back again, right through April. Had it stayed, that winter would have easily surpassed 95-96
  24. snowman19
    When I saw the warm nose in the soundings late yesterday, I figured this was going to happen. I think I mentioned it to you. The models always underestimate mid-level warming and how far north it goes with the LLJ punching in. The mid-level low’s positions aren’t exactly stellar either. The CAD has definitely been impressive though
  25. snowman19
    You’re still getting snow? I’m all sleet no snow in Sloatsburg for close to an hour now. The mid-level warming has definitely taken over for now
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