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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    Maybe, however, the CFS is showing a secondary strong peak in January, we’ll see, but it has been one of the most accurate models with this Niña event. The Euro was insisting on only a weak Niña and it was dead wrong, it was one of the last to fold
  2. snowman19
    Good call by you and Bluewave last week of the eventual correction to much warmer for this weekend. Looks like 50’s and rain now
  3. snowman19
    The CFS is showing nothing of the sort and it has done a much better job with the Niña event since the summer, it sniffed this event out very well, it has a January peak of solidly strong:
  4. snowman19
    Enjoy what? Not understanding your post
  5. snowman19
    Region 4 hasn’t been this cold in over 16 years
  6. snowman19
    I saw that this morning. It’s ugly, real ugly, it’s showing an 11-12 type winter scenario....hard to believe that we would have back to back winters this bad, they are usually separated by a bunch of years in between
  7. snowman19
    If this month turns into a dud, we are in very big trouble for the rest of winter. Bad November’s and December’s in moderate to strong La Ninas are the kiss of death for winter in our area
  8. snowman19
    It looks like a ridiculously mild pattern is going to set up shop by the 15th. Consensus on all 3 major ensembles (EPS, GEPS, GEFS) now, along with the CFS
  9. snowman19
    Possibly....you definitely don’t want December to be a dud month in a La Niña winter. It would be a very, very bad sign for the rest of winter, historically speaking, especially given the much warmer than normal November
  10. snowman19
    The 10-11 La Niña was extremely “east-based” at the beginning of winter, November and December. If you recall, as it evolved to become more “west-based” around mid-January, the high latitude blocking began to slowly breakdown, then it completely fell apart at the end of January and that was all she wrote for that winter, the blocking never came back again, right through April.....
  11. snowman19
    There is now consensus among the ensembles that the TPV moves into AK (+EPO) come next weekend. It’s probably lights out for awhile, that’s a stable pattern, the vortex is not going to be in a big rush to move out
  12. snowman19
    The Niña associated Aleutian ridge is showing up on all ensemble guidance now, all the new runs of EPS, GEPS, GEFS have it
  13. snowman19
    How many times now over the last 3 winters have the ensembles shown a massive -EPO/-NAO/-AO pattern in the long range only for it to never verify and just completely disappear?
  14. snowman19
    Yea, it’s definitely concerning. When the TPV moves into AK it typically has good staying power, it’s normally not in and out, transient
  15. snowman19
    It’s always very cold and snowy in Wennieland....
  16. snowman19
    No not really
  17. snowman19
    That and the trough is positively tilted big time
  18. snowman19
    The GEFS and GEPS have completely lost all of the high latitude blocking (-EPO, -NAO, -AO) in the long range, I strongly suspect the EPS will be next. This is shades of last winter when the EPS would insist on high latitude blocking mirages in the long range, run after run, only for them to completely disappear as you move forward in time
  19. snowman19
    Eric Fisher actually just tweeted about this, as you can see, the 12z EPS says its own operational solution for this weekend is garbage:
  20. snowman19
    The operational Euro has been God awful, just dreadful, even the GFS has been better. It’s almost not even worth looking at anymore, erratic as all hell
  21. snowman19
    With no cold air? You know it has to be cold to snow right?
  22. snowman19
    Agreed, good point about the MJO. If there’s really an amplified MJO wave going through phases 3-6, the depicted long range pattern doesn’t make any sense. We’ll have to wait and see. Paul Roundy and Isotherm have targeted January as being the wintry month for us
  23. snowman19
    Agree with you here on the cold shot if this is correct. This looks like a transient cold shot though, looks like it’s about to turn into ugliness post mid-month
  24. snowman19
    No sane people actually believed next weekend was going to be a snowstorm except for the delusional ones who follow JB and Henry Margusity
  25. snowman19
    Paul Roundy’s thoughts of January turning cold/snowy in the east after an overall mild December basically mirrors Isotherm’s winter forecast
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