snowman19

@frd Just to add to your post, evidence is certainly mounting for a +NAM this winter, here is the thread Griteater made today:

@bluewave @Allsnow @donsutherland1 Good thread by Griteater, but a VERY bad sign:

Wouldn’t it be totally unprecedented for the +QBO not to continue to downwell into the bottom of the stratosphere? As far as I know, every positive and negative event on record has downwelled into the lower stratosphere

Yea, the Euro weeklies are very ugly through the end of December and there’s no reason to doubt them at this point in time, I think there’s reason to be optimistic about January though

It’s starting to look like at least early-mid December at the least may very well be a lost cause, possibly the whole month depending on how bad off we are to start it. A full scale pattern change isn’t just going to happen overnight. I’m starting to think this is going to end up being a January, one month winter for the metro as Isotherm and a couple of others have suggested. Very likely that February is a complete torch, March isn’t looking all that promising either

An AO/NAO disconnect isn’t going to help us with a PAC that looks like what the models are depicting in the long range now. You need both a very deeply negative AO and west-based -NAO to compensate for that disaster

Does anyone know what happened to Crankywxguy? He just called it quits for good on Twitter. It came out of nowhere. I hope it’s not something health related. He was definitely one of the better ones on social media, sad to see him go so suddenly

Lol We’re still waiting for the one that was supposed to happen last winter

How is that a good look? The EPO floodgates are wide open. All you are getting is Pacific maritime air, the NAO is positive to boot, even if it wasn’t and went negative with that PAC look, all it would do is bring down garbage Pacific air

Very flat Aleutian ridge, +EPO, +NAO, not good signs going into early December

MJO phases 3-6 are expected to be favored this winter, which makes sense given the SST setup in the tropical PAC. The thing that is disturbing, and Griteater mentioned this over a month ago, is the possibility of flat Aleutian ridging, instead of poleward ridging, which is being shown in the long range. He expects this flat Aleutian ridging to be dominant this winter given the anomalies he looked at in the North Pacific back during October, not what we want to see

Agreed. This is what Griteater was afraid of, that we would have a flat Aleutian ridge instead of a poleward one, he expected this to happen

That’s a big difference from pretty much all the other winter outlooks so far....they have February as a massive torch

Here’s the winter outlook from Earthlight (John Homenuk) who used to be really active on these forums: https://www.nymetroweather.com/2020/11/09/nyc-winter-forecast-2020-2021-warmer-less-snowy-than-normal/

48 degrees in the arctic in November. Scary

Agreed, kind of hard to be worse than last winter....

01-02 wasn’t really ugly looking until the early fall, record high solar flux hit....

No, I’m not loving it. I don’t think it’s funny at all that our climate has warmed this much. AGW is real. It’s honestly sad

This is the ugliest I’ve ever seen going into winter, I don’t think the overall picture at this point in time could possibly be any worse. The SPV picture is particularly disturbing as I just mentioned in the other post

I remember back at this time in 2002 when literally every sign was pointing to an epic winter and it turned out to be just that. This year, everything is pointing to a dud...a huge dud. The strong basin-wide La Niña we have with the coldest anomalies moving westward to region 3.4 instead of region 1+2, coldest ENSO region 4 in over 10 years, +QBO, negative PDO, current negative PNA/RNA regime cooling the SSTs in the GOA and off the western North American coast, massive amounts of wildfire smoke getting pumped into the stratosphere since the summer, record low arctic sea ice, the SPV showing signs of being strong as hell and coupling with the TPV, the North Atlantic SST configuration is absolutely horrible for promoting negative NAO, AGW, torched SSTs along and off the entire east coast, positively feeding back into the SE Ridge and WAR, not a fan of using it, but Eurasian snowcover as of this month is the lowest it’s been in the last 15+ years. Literally the only “plus”, if you want to call it that, is the low solar cycle/solar minimum we are in, but the solar argument has proven itself to be complete snake oil and false hope over the last several winters

If BAMWX is correct, December is in big trouble. The analog set they are expecting all featured a horrific PAC side....flat Aleutian ridge, -PNA, +EPO, +WPO, also favoring +NAO, +AO

Nothing at this time point and time even remotely resembles 2010, this year is in a different universe

If we go into December with a continuation of this pattern, it would be a really bad sign. La Niña’s that have mild December’s with less snow than average, historically bode very, very poorly for the rest of winter

Yep and it looks like a strong GOA vortex develops, those warm SST anomalies there and off the west coast are going to drop in a hurry. Good call on your part

@Allsnow Here comes the cooling SSTs in the GOA and off the west coast of North America that you were worried about....