snowman19

Right now the SST configuration in the North Atlantic looks awful for -NAO. This is definitely not what you want to see

This would lend support to the BAMWX winter forecast IF it holds, Stadiumwave just pointed this out in the New England forum...the coldest anomalies in the ENSO zones have moved west. Definitely a bad sign:

Agreed, it looks very ugly going into November. It was a concern HM, BAMWX and a few other mets had mentioned a couple of months ago...the massive amount of smoke from the wildfires that got ejected into the stratosphere, the +QBO, the record low arctic sea ice. The SPV looks to strengthen very substantially going into November as well...

Yea, I saw that, it was a good synopsis. I’m just having a problem believing that it’s going to be THAT bad of a winter. IMO, I don’t think it’s likely, but I may be wrong

Just took a look at it, what they are predicting is actually worse than last winter, if that’s even possible. Just wall to wall ugliness...

Not really. They predicted a solidly colder and snowier than normal winter for the east last year. They changed their forecast in mid-December when they saw it was a lost cause

There was a study published years ago that found that a positive QBO becomes a problem for high latitude blocking once it gets over +10 (don’t quote me but I believe that was the threshold given) during the winter months. The stronger the +QBO gets, the more it promotes strong westerlies/zonal flow

I’m looking now....I know it was said that both models are forecasting a strong La Niña, if I find it, I’ll give you the links right away

Read on Twitter earlier that Henry Margusity is supposedly hyping on his paid site that there’s a classic tripole in the Atlantic SSTs that will lead to a -NAO winter....if true, not sure what he’s looking at, but we have anything but a classic tripole right now: VS what we have:

DT lol Has he gotten a winter forecast right in the last 4 years? I lost all respect for him when I saw him wish cancer on someone who disagreed with him a few years back

If you look back at La Nina winters in the NYC metro area, they are also screwed without AO/NAO assist. All the good La Niña winters were predominantly negative AO/NAO, the bad ones were predominantly positive AO/NAO

IMO this winter is going to come down to the AO/NAO, if they are predominately positive this winter, everyone south of New England (really central New England) is screwed. Just -NAO without -AO isn’t going to help IMO, they both need to be predominantly negative together to get a good winter this time. This La Niña is basin-wide and is very likely peaking strong, it’s also very strongly coupled. I don’t think we are going to see a good PAC side, it’s probably going to be garbage. Griteater pointed this out, but the pressure anomalies in the North Pacific, GOA and Alaska so far this month and projected going into November are now suggesting a flat Aleutian ridge as opposed to the +QBO Ninas that had poleward ones. If the AO/NAO cooperate, then it’s game on for cold and snow, see 73-74 super Niña, 10-11, 95-96

Agreed. However, if it’s being done as a way to not be wrong no matter what happens this winter, that’s a pathetic way to ‘forecast’ IMO. If it’s a ratter, they can say “See, I used 88-89 as one of my analogs!” Or if it’s a very cold and snowy winter they can say “See, I used 95-96 and 10-11 as my analogs!” Not saying that’s their intent, but if it is, that’s pretty sad

I don’t understand the people who are using complete ratters (i.e. 88-89, etc.) along with 95-96 and 10-11 as their analogs. It makes no sense

This La Niña is not playing around. I think strong is definitely in the cards now....

As far as the Niña, I mentioned over in the New England forum yesterday, it has become a basin-wide event. It is no longer “east-based”. All ENSO regions are solidly into a La Niña now. ENSO region 4 is the coldest it has been in over a decade....approaching -1.0C

@frd Looks like griteater came up with that composite you had posted about last month for October’s relationship with the wintertime North Pacific High (poleward or flat) and +QBO/basin-wide La Niña:

I was going to ask that. People keep calling this “east-based” but it’s really basin-wide. ENSO region 4 hasn’t been this cold in over a decade and the models project it to stay that way throughout the winter. It’s approaching -1.0C:

The models are back to showing their phantom negative AO and negative NAO blocks in the long range, only to completely lose them as you move forward in time. They’ve been doing this for years now. BAMWX pointed it out yesterday

I lost all respect for him when he was hyping a very cold and snowy winter for the east coast back in 15-16 with a raging super El Niño in place.....just showed how ignorant he is

Couldn’t agree more. The “solar minimum” argument is just more snake oil

I don’t even look at the Judah Cohen snake oil SAI index anymore, that proved itself to be nonsense. Looks like the models, once again are pulling their normal phantom AO/NAO blocking fantasies in the long range, right on schedule:

Nice write up

I mentioned it before, but I think all this record arctic sea ice melt is also contributing to the persistently +AO and +NAO winters we have been seeing. IMO it’s not a coincidence and it’s created a positive feedback loop

The Greenland ice melt is extremely disturbing. Not as bad as 2012 but it’s still at record levels. If there were any more doubts about AGW having a major effect on our climate and global circulations, this is a very good example. Even HM is clueless as to which way the NAO is going this winter. Should be interesting to see what Isotherm says