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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    Unless there are some big changes soon, I don’t think we can be real optimistic about next week for a major snowstorm
  2. snowman19
    The argument that ENSO is completely meaningless and that there is no such thing as La Niña or El Niño patterns is asinine, nonsensical. It’s not even worthy of a debate
  3. snowman19
    To say that ENSO is totally meaningless and that there’s no such thing as El Niño or La Niña patterns is completely and totally absurd. That’s ludicrous
  4. snowman19
    If the tropical convective forcing moves to the Maritime Continent in late January, as is the typical canonical La Niña progression, people won’t be asking “where is the La Niña pattern?” anymore come February
  5. snowman19
    Yea, we may be singing a very different tune in just over 4 weeks (late January)
  6. snowman19
    GFS too cold again and on its own yet again
  7. snowman19
    No, if there’s really a full latitude trough out west it’s not “correcting” to anything
  8. snowman19
    The new Euro has a full latitude trough on the west coast (strong -PNA) for this storm. If that’s correct, it’s going to cut
  9. snowman19
    You also need to buy a +PNA....there’s a full latitude trough on the west coast
  10. snowman19
    This progression is not shocking at all in a La Niña which is front end loaded. December through early to mid January typically are the colder/snowier period, then late January, February (especially) and March are when the classic La Niña torch pattern normally hits
  11. snowman19
    It’s an EPO problem too, troughing over AK
  12. snowman19
    That’s one issue, the other issue is the PAC side at the time
  13. snowman19
    It seems like every winter from November through March there is non stop hype of “major/huge/epic/historic” SSWs, SPV splits, flips, dips, electric slides....
  14. snowman19
    In Fort Kent, Maine? Absolutely!! Flash Freeze potential there!!
  15. snowman19
    It’s just FROPA. The GFS loves to show phantom anafronts and phantom lows developing off shore on cold fronts....none of which actually happen. It’s been doing this for years, seen this before, we all know how this movie ends....
  16. snowman19
    Yep, and the GEFS just is awful as the op. Horrible with storms, horrible with showing phantom high latitude blocking and extreme cold in the long range. It’s been going on for years now. It’s really very embarrassing
  17. snowman19
    Believe the GFS if you want because it’s showing snow. It’s a horrific model. And I actually sided with a colder, snowier storm with the last one and was wrong
  18. snowman19
    After the GFS’s absolutely abysmal performance with this last storm, I don’t trust it one bit. Always way too cold, real bad cold bias, bad SE bias, it doesn’t have a clue. That model is dreadful
  19. snowman19
    By the tail end of January the high latitude blocking just completely fell apart, vanished and it never came back again, right through April. Had it stayed, that winter would have easily surpassed 95-96
  20. snowman19
    When I saw the warm nose in the soundings late yesterday, I figured this was going to happen. I think I mentioned it to you. The models always underestimate mid-level warming and how far north it goes with the LLJ punching in. The mid-level low’s positions aren’t exactly stellar either. The CAD has definitely been impressive though
  21. snowman19
    You’re still getting snow? I’m all sleet no snow in Sloatsburg for close to an hour now. The mid-level warming has definitely taken over for now
  22. snowman19
    All sleet up here in Sloatsburg, started about 15 minutes ago. This is the mid-level warm nose we were talking about yesterday with the LLJ punching in
  23. snowman19
    Heavy snow and windy up in Sloatsburg. Haven’t seen it come down this good since March, 2018. Probably close to an inch an hour right now
  24. snowman19
    Agree 100%. It’s almost certainly all over in the morning, let alone the afternoon. It will be a memory by then
  25. snowman19
    It’s not only moving but those 10:1 ratio snow maps being posted are severely overdone, they are counting sleet as snow. You are going to get mixing, there’s a mid-level warm nose punching in.....
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