snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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It’s supposed to peak at moderate in December
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The CFS is such a train wreck, always the very last one to get a clue. Pretty sad when American guidance is some of the worst out there
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For anyone following; the QBO number for September just updated, it’s up to +7.95
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@40/70 Benchmark Don’t know if you saw the update yet but the QBO went up to +7.95 for September....
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I wish I still had the link, but there was a very extensive article which went into depth on the ENSO/PDO winter relationship. It argued that ENSO forces the PDO, which is why, the overwhelming majority of the time you have +PDO with a Niño and -PDO with a Niña for winter. I think +PDO/Niña winters were found to be even rarer than -PDO/Nino winters in the study.. Both combos are very rare
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95-96 QBO started positive then went negative during winter right?
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To follow up with what raindancewx said, I noticed ENSO region 4 the other day, I can’t remember when it’s been consistently this cold. The models are projecting it to stay quite cold into winter....
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Doesn’t tropical forcing normally move to the maritime continent in February in most “typical” La Niñas?
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Honestly can’t remember how long it’s been since ENSO region 4 was this cold. The models showing a moderate peak in December are looking more and more believable. I had doubts about the Niña getting beyond weak, those doubts are pretty much gone:
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@psuhoffman I think another wildcard for winter that HM keeps mentioning is the wildfires’ effects on the stratosphere....
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It will be be interesting to see what happens with the North Pacific high come November and December, is it flat or poleward? Seems to be conflicting info about the QBO/Niña relationship like you said. Looks like there is pretty decent consensus now for a moderate peak sometime in December. As Ray showed in his preliminary outlook, it appears this event may be evolving into a “Modoki” La Niña now
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Don’t know if you guys saw it but winter composites for low solar/La Niña/+QBO were posted in the New England forum:
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These fires are reaching record heights into the stratosphere: https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-WILDFIRE/POLLUTION/xlbpgjgervq/
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Here is the links to the articles he mentioned on this:
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Even up in the NYC metro area, a La Niña/+NAO is a very, very bad combo for snow and cold lovers. New England is a different story
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No, they have just begun to affect the stratosphere. The effects will continue through winter. This is going to have long lasting effects for many months even after they end
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All these wildfires punching smoke up into the stratosphere are not what you want to see. It is increasing the chances of seeing another +AO winter. HM posted 2 articles last week explaining in detail why this is
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Very Impressive job. Obviously took you a lot of time and effort. Interesting write up
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How much of a monkey wrench do you think this may throw into things?
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Can’t disagree with that. I do think we will absolutely need the NAO to cooperate this winter. I have a feeling the AO and the PAC side are going to be hostile. You can already see signs of a firehose PAC jet again and we are already dealing with La Niña/-PDO
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No, it’s definitely not and the ongoing huge wildfires out west aren’t what you want either. They are altering the stratosphere in a way that supports +AO
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Yep, this time of year, hitting 90 or above with that kind of upper level ridging wouldn’t take much
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Large Scale Global Wildfires and its Climate Impact
snowman19 replied to bugalou's topic in Climate Change
The current western wildfires getting into the stratosphere would seemingly support a +AO winter. -
HM tweeted a study on the effects of the major wildfires going on out west....it dramatically affects stratospheric conditions for the winter:
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I read several studies which concluded that tropical volcanic eruptions that punch into the stratosphere result in +AO the first winter after an eruption, then cause -AO the following winter. This study on wildfire impacts on the stratosphere is real interesting. These wildfires are much more extensive than 2017 so you would expect a bigger impact; it would seemingly support +AO this winter
