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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    The Ukie solution is ludicrous. It drives the storm into a block. It was way overamped several times the last 2 winters. Almost guaranteed to be a huge outlier when the Euro comes out
  2. snowman19
    This is not confluence, it’s a full fledged west-based -NAO block. The storm will only go so far north then hit a brick wall, the block is real, suppression is definitely a very real possibility. Good luck getting a SE ridge press with a -NAO block like that
  3. snowman19
    You can doubt suppression all you want but it’s real
  4. snowman19
    This setup is nothing at all like the last several winters where a storm was modeled south, then had a last minute north trend to give us snow. The only reason why that was happening was because there was no NAO blocking whatsoever, the +NAO was allowing the SE ridge to pump and that caused the last minute correction north. We have a 180 degree opposite setup now. There will be a legit west based -NAO block pressing down, this storm will only get so far north and that’s it. The block is not going to allow the last minute SE ridge pump this time. Suppression is absolutely believable and the most likely scenario
  5. snowman19
    But the last several years, we had a +NAO which allowed the SER to flex and that’s why we kept seeing the last minute “north trend” we never had a west based -NAO block pressing down. The flow is also screaming across the CONUS next week, this is only going to get so far north before it hits a brick wall. That block means business, it’s not going to let the SER flex and cause a north trend. I think the threat is suppressed, not trending further north
  6. snowman19
    Extremely unstable/convective right now. Cumulus congestus and snow showers, very cold mid-levels. Light dustings in spots
  7. snowman19
    Agreed. Next week’s synoptic setup has suppression written all over it, unless things change big time, I can’t envision a cutter
  8. snowman19
    I feel the same way, it’s a suppression threat, the jet on roids, the block, this could very well miss us to the south. I think a cutter would be extremely unlikely
  9. snowman19
    It looks like the threat next week is suppressed, not cutter, given the -NAO block position and northern branch jet configuration
  10. snowman19
    After last winter’s debacle, I don’t trust them as far as I can throw them. They were just dreadful, they kept showing a great pattern that never materialized, so many people got burnt by them
  11. snowman19
    @bluewave @donsutherland1 Nino region 4 in a free fall, now -1.2C. When was the last time it’s been this cold? I honestly can’t remember seeing SSTs that cold in region 4. Over the last decade, it’s consistently been the warmest ENSO region
  12. snowman19
    Yep, February is in trouble, big trouble. Both -NAO/-AO showing signs of breaking down in the beginning of February, couple that with MJO phase 6/-GLAAM and you have a torch-a-rama in the east. If anyone was wondering where the canonical La Niña pattern has been, here it comes.....
  13. snowman19
    Stop listening to twitter weenie mets like JB, Henry Margusity, etc., and unfollow Eric Webb. He’s an arrogant, know it all little shit. Epic bust after epic bust from him since November. Dude sucks and he’s pompous as hell, hasn’t gotten a damn thing right
  14. snowman19
    The models have consistently been way too cold in the long range since November. Too aggressive with fantasy -EPO’s and to a lesser extent +PNA’s. A function, I believe like you said, of underestimating the PAC jet. The end of this month is getting warmer by the day with each model run, now they are playing catch-up as we get closer because they were way too cold at range
  15. snowman19
    Yet another -EPO fail incoming and yea, the -PNA is getting stronger as we move forward in time
  16. snowman19
    GEPS has been getting progressively more Niña looking going into February since the Thursday night run. I posted about it this morning, BAMWX pointed it out that the EPS and GEFS are backing off the very cold runs for the long range they had and are both markedly warming up each cycle for the last several runs....
  17. snowman19
    Not speaking in absolutes at all. And how good is the Niña February looking? About as good as the SSW bringing epic cold and snow here. Or “MJO phase 8!” Or the collapsed Niña by January. Lol I’m going to bring this post back up should we be deep in the throws of a canonical La Niña pattern next month
  18. snowman19
    @bluewave @donsutherland1 I know @Rjay and others don’t like BAMWX and I can understand why at times, but they have a point here. Yet another modeled “cold” period turning way warmer as we move closer in time. Now, 1/18-1/31 doesn’t look so cold and snowy anymore. GEFS and EPS doing an about face yet again. The beat goes on....
  19. snowman19
    Exactly. That setup might work in March with the shorter wavelengths, but as far as that look (deep, full latitude trough on the west coast instead of off the west coast) producing a big snowstorm next week, along with the northern stream still screaming across the CONUS....color me skeptical
  20. snowman19
    If there’s a deep, full latitude trough on the west coast instead of off the west coast for this storm, people aren’t going to like the results here as far as snow, even with the blocking. Plus you still have a raging fast northern stream at that point....
  21. snowman19
    Saw the CMC. If the Para GFS and Euro show something similar I’ll get interested. I completely disregard anything the regular GFS shows. It’s literally the worst model there is. The ICON is better
  22. snowman19
    If only it wasn’t the GFS showing it lol
  23. snowman19
    ^The other thing we haven’t been able to do in several years is sustain a -EPO
  24. snowman19
    Looks like nothing but screaming fast zonal flow right through 1/31 on all models. -PNA/RNA, nothing to slow it down and turn it meridional. Everything gets shredded and suppressed
  25. snowman19
    People are conditioned to believe that the winters from 2000-2016 are the norm around here....fact is, they are not. We got extremely lucky during that 16 year time period, truth is, those winters were an anomaly. I could not imagine this forum had it been around for the winters from 1979-1993. People would have lost their minds on here
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