snowman19

The PAC starts to go to hell quicker on the GEFS this run

Which site are you using? This one isn’t showing anything big in the metro area https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/new-york/snow-depth-in/20230125-0000z.html

HM isn’t impressed. Guess we’ll see

Everywhere south of Orange County got jack diddly from that event. All rain

The lakes aren’t even frozen here. I’ve lived in Sloatsburg my entire life and I don’t ever remember the lakes not being frozen by this time

Rockland County is. I’m 35 miles NW of NYC and we’ve yet to see a plowable snowfall. The last one was 3/12

Since mid-November, it has been a parade of cutters, inland runners and warmth outside of the 4 day arctic snap at the end of December

IMO, the Sunday-Monday storm is rain south of I-84, much too warm. The one to look for is Thursday, that may have a chance to thread the needle if everything goes exactly right. If nothing happens by 2/2 it’s close the shades time for awhile. The new GEFS is very ugly after that date. Gotta agree with Allsnow, the window is 1/26-2/2, if nothing happens, we most likely wait until early March

@Allsnow Here’s the short window (1/27-2/2) you pointed out. I know you feel the same way, but if we are to score before March, that’s when it needs to happen

Yea, it’s looking less likely now that we see a major SSW, i.e. February, 2018.

The clue I always look for to see if there’s actually a good chance at a coastal snowstorm is the GFS. At this range, the GFS is almost always way suppressed /OTS and a miss. Then as you move closer in time it trends towards the other models. If it’s showing a big hit or a coastal hugger, that’s usually a bad sign because its correction at this range is almost always west as you draw closer to the event

In a way lol the good that about getting jackpotted on day 9 runs is it shows you exactly what’s not going to happen

For the 1st one early next week yes. Then it bombs the Thursday low and jackpots the area. Guess we’ll see but I wouldn’t get too excited with the way this winter has gone over a day 9 op run

If 1/27-2/2 doesn’t work out, we will probably have to wait until early March for the next window. The pattern looks to get hostile after 2/2

Maybe the SSW chance wasn’t as strong as I thought…https://twitter.com/harryspoelstra/status/1615262255649624066?s=46&t=Vmu7zrbEvS3iHI1vsA6tKg

1/29 is the all time record….

You’ve been saying this since November

That 6z run was the GFS doing its normal suppressed bias BS. No other models are suppressed. Outlier run

This is all true, however at some point this winter has to put up or shut up. Since November all we have been hearing about is these great snow and cold patterns and amazing setups, since then we’ve seen a 4 day arctic cold snap and its been snowless. I don’t think the end of this month looks great at all. That puts us to February and one month left of met winter. Eventually we are going to run out of time

*Possible SSW. Niña/+QBO/high solar is the least likely combo for a SSW. That said it’s not impossible. I’m still not 100% sold one definitely happens but it looks possible

We’ve had 3 months of “ best looks” and “great patterns” day 7+ and here we sit on 1/17 and NYC has a trace of snow. Total

Evidence growing for March to be the “real” winter month here….Looks like the MJO will propagate out into the Pacific come early March, based on the Paul Roundy plots Eric shows, the possible SSW event in early February (takes awhile/weeks with the lag to actually have an effect) couples with the troposphere, cold rebuilds in Canada, SPV weakens greatly, -NAO/-AO, also, possible jet extension and +PNA. The caveats….it will be March, so March “cold”, and March climo, also sun angle and length of day will be working against us, so keep expectations tempered, but I think it ends up being the most wintry (cold/snow) month of 22-23. Will have to re-examine as we get closer. Still very strongly believe February is canonical La Niña/-PNA/SE ridge/flat Aleutian ridge and well above normal temps, well below normal snow

Maybe you would like to give us a detailed explanation of what you will think will happen next week instead of just trolling my posts without any evidence to back it up? What do you think is going to happen and why? .

Agreed. It seems like the only one who thinks we are getting an I-95 snowstorm next week is Joe Bastardi. There is no semblance of a legit -NAO block and a marginal airmass. Color me skeptical of next week too