snowman19

The new EPS mean is 2-3 inches area wide. Even if that turns out to be correct, I don’t think anyone would be complaining

IMO if this busts it busts OTS and doesn’t become an inland runner. I think rain is off the table, I hate to disagree with Forky and Bluewave but I think it’s either a big snowstorm or a minor 1-2, 1-3 event as the options

That’s the last thing I expected out of the EURO. It normally doesn’t flip flop like this less than 4 days out

The NAM could tell me the sky is blue and water is wet and I wouldn’t believe it. It’s as eternally bad as the GFS, they both haven’t a clue. It’s obvious where this is heading, it’s going to be a major event Sunday, wouldn’t surprise me if this is an 8-12 inch storm. The CMC/RGEM appears to have schooled the EURO on this one, it’s playing catchup like the ICON. My guess is that the UKMET is the next one to show a big hit

Good God the GFS sucks. Worst model in the history of mankind. Like seriously not even worth looking at it anymore. Frigging awful

I can’t remember the last time the GFS actually scored a coup inside of 4 days but boy is it insistent on Sunday being a complete non event run after run

It’s honesty really hard to believe that we have been in a predominantly cold to very cold pattern since the day after Thanksgiving and have yet to see even one major (6”+) snow event anywhere in the metro area. It’s almost 07-08 vibes, snow wise at least, to this point except it’s been cold this winter unlike that one

That’s a ludicrous solution. Throw it right in the trash. We aren’t getting rain for that wave. It’s either a minor snow event or nada/OTS. That’s the CMC being way too amped again

We are still officially in a solid drought. The only reason why it’s not noticeable right now is because it’s the dead of winter. If it continues into spring we will have problems, huge problems

@brooklynwx99 Would WAR be better than SE ridge then? Also, the models are retrograding the AK ridge out to the Aleutians, is that still a -EPO? @MJO812 @40/70 Benchmark Looks like your thoughts on February going canonical La Niña have merit. EPS, GEFS and GEPS all still on board for a big -PNA/SE ridge response in the final days of this month going into February. The EPS, GEPS and GEFS are retrograding the ridge from AK to the Aleutians. Here’s the new EPS animation:

19-20 looks real for a light event. As for the 23rd you are correct, that op EURO run has virtually no EPS support

Not sure about SEA but I remember the high latitude -NAO/-AO blocking started to break down in late January, 2011. Then at the start of February it went full blown canonical Niña with a big -PNA/Aleutian ridge/SE ridge and all the blocking was totally gone. It followed a typical “front loaded” cold late Nov - late Jan Niña climo winter in the east though

Unlike earlier in the year, this time it actually fits Niña climo to turn to a canonical look. -AAM, jet retraction, very strong EWB coming up, convection moving along…..2010-11 did the same thing right around the same time. That was also a front loaded Nina winter, cold from late November to late January then it flipped

The EPS, GEPS and GEFS all show it in the closing days of this month. Verbatim, the end of the runs also show the ridge over AK starting to retrograde out towards the Aleutians. This is the GEPS/EPS, GEFS is the same:

2010-11 ended up being a way better analog than I thought. Credit to the guys who mentioned it as an analog. This Niña is behaving like a classic front end loaded event. Cold in the east from late November to late January. The EPS, GEFS and GEPS are all showing a shift to a canonical La Niña (-PNA/SE ridge/retro to Aleutian ridge) pattern in the final days of this month/start of February. You can see hints of the AK ridge retrograding from AK towards the Aleutians at the end of those ensemble runs. Very strong EWB coming up, along with -AAM, jet retraction and an amplified MJO wave propagating from the IO to the Maritime Continent, constructively interfering with the La Niña. Fits Niña climo perfectly. Here are the overnight GEPS, EPS runs. The GEFS is showing the same thing:

@bluewave @donsutherland1 Big -PNA signal starting to show up on the ensembles for the tail end of this month

I thought it was the GEFS. My fault

After what the GFS/GEFS just did this past weekend I give its solutions zero consideration. I don’t care if it shows a raging cutter or a blizzard. It’s a horrific model. Even the CMC/GEPS schooled it

QPF from late November till now has been well below average. We are still solidly in drought conditions. And it is absolutely possible that next week ends up suppressed with fast flow again. Since November, there has been a total lack of West Atlantic storm traffic to jam the flow up and slow it down, everything just races off the coast with no mechanism to bring it up here. “Contentweatherguy” has been spot on with this all winter long

Good lord yes I was wrong about the warmth. Happy? Now admit that you have been dead wrong about all the snowstorms you’ve been predicting since the end of November up until today @MJO812 Of course you won’t admit how badly you’ve busted on the snow. Not surprised

One of the few times I’ve ever seen him accurately predict something was when he forecasted warmth. The last time I can remember him insisting on the pattern turning warm was January of 2011. He told everyone over and over that all the blocking was going to fall apart at the end of the month and winter was going to end at the beginning of February and not come back again. The weenies wanted to kill him and he ended up being right

It looks very cold no doubt, however, his target period of 1/1 - 1/15 was completely wrong. He will never admit it though. He will simply say “delayed but not denied” take credit for being the 1st one to see it and move on like it never even happened. If someone else had predicted warmth for that period and busted, he’d be the 1st one to put them on blast and troll them

@Allsnow When is the inevitable “Buckle up!!” tweet coming??

Not surprisingly, Joe Bastardi’s 1/1 - 1/15 record/historic arctic cold snow blitz for NYC hype is going to be a huge fail. And of course no tweets about his upcoming bust

You can post all your weenie maps, AI maps, teleconnection charts, all your MJO 8-1-2, SSW fantasies and musings from the weenies and weenie “buckle up” mets on twitter all you want like you do every winter, all winter. It’s not going to change the fact that the pattern is going to go canonical La Niña by February. Ignore it if you wish, I’m sure you will. But reality will set in soon enough. Just like the reality of the uber hyped 1/1 - 1/15 “historic” pattern with the January, 1996 analog that has produced NOTHING for snowfall in NYC and the hyped December and end of November pattern that produced a grand total for both months of 2.8 inches of snow for NYC from 2 (yes two) different storms added together. “December, 2010 redux!!” Crippling. You got your cold with nothing to show for it the last 2 months. I hope you enjoyed. The change is coming