snowman19

From World Climate Service: September ENSO/IOD index update (ERSSTv5): • Niño3.4 +1.6 (4th highest) • Niño1+2 +2.5 (second only to 1997) • Niño4 +1.1 (record highest) • Modoki Index -0.24 (*not at all Modoki-like yet*) • ENSO Longitude Index: now 5th highest since 1950 • IOD +2.1 (4th highest) And a couple more September SST indices AMO +0.9 (highest on record by far) PDO -1.7 (3rd most negative since 1950 - astonishing to see during El Niño) My add: Nino region 3 was the warmest on record in September Links: https://www.twitter.com/worldclimatesvc/status/1709286540432621601?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw https://www.twitter.com/worldclimatesvc/status/1709291978796552683?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

Region 3.4 hit +3.1C at the end of November back in 2015….that’s not happening. I do still think this one gets over +2C but definitely not that warm

Yes I do. We aren’t going to see a 12/15 style torch a rama. I do however think this winter overall will average warmer than normal

I think it depends in large part on what the stratosphere does (Hunga Tonga being a wild card). I too see a heightened chance of a KU event with a roaring STJ. We will obviously need to time the polar blocking and cold over the top. As far as overall temps, I think it matches 72-73, 82-83, 97-98 and 15-16….although I very seriously doubt a 15 style December torch because I don’t think we see Niña like forcing this time around. I don’t like guesstimating snowfall because as you know, one storm could make an entire season and it’s way too fickle. I do think the forcing moves east come December, the question is how far east?

@brooklynwx99 @GaWx @griteater @40/70 Benchmark The El Niño juiced STJ is already showing up. No need to worry about a SE ridge/WAR and Niña like pattern this time around. This one is coming, it’s going to strongly couple and it’s going to behave like a canonical El Niño. I’m more confident than ever. The Nino and +IOD are going to work in tandem to suppress the IO/Maritime Continent convection and the MJO ph 3-6 nonsense this time around. We are already seeing the signs “this is definitely an El-Niño-cool-season pattern showing up in about a week: strong subtropical jet, low heights along the Gulf Coast, etc.” https://www.twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1708971583035916532?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

This isn’t 12-13 and it’s coming right back. I don’t think you’ll have any doubt come the end of this month

A sign of Nino coupling taking place

Major suppression and subsidence over the IO and Maritime Continent (courtesy of strong El Niño/+IOD). We will have weak, fast moving Pacific MJO waves, 8-1 constructively interfering with El Niño

Region 3.4 climbing on OISST

That had zero to do with Paul Roundy, zippo. In fact, the research on the QBO/El Nino I mentioned was done by Joe D’Aleo, one of the biggest cold/snow misers there is

I haven’t made a final decision on anything, those are just my preliminary thoughts. I’m waiting until the end of November to see where we are at. Too many things can change. If we are going to see big high latitude -AO/-NAO blocking, we should start seeing signs of that in the arctic stratosphere this month and next month. Back in 2010, the signs really started to show themselves in October and especially November. HM sounded the alarms in November that year, that the stratosphere and troposphere were “talking” and major polar blocking was coming. I honestly don’t care how this winter ends up working out as long as it doesn’t snow on Saturday, March 16th because I’m getting married that day lol

This El Niño developed, configured and evolved in a completely different manner than 2009, it’s also stronger, but let’s put that aside. I see *possible* issues with going cold and snowy this year and I will save my judgement until late November. 1) East-based El Niño, has been, still is and the models continue to show regions 1+2 and 3 remaining warmer than 3.4 and 4 at least through January. I see little to no chance whatsoever of this becoming a Modoki 2) IMO this event goes trimonthly super in the ONI sense, my guess stands at +2.1C - +2.3C. I believe it couples in a very big way this month. The SOI is very clearly deep in El Niño mode and has been. 3) Record +IOD event (most likely surpassing 94, 97, 19). 4) Historic amounts of water vapor in the NH arctic stratosphere from Hunga Tonga, unknown effects on stratospheric temps and the SPV, NAM/AO, we have to watch this month and next month very closely to see if it gets ice cold 5) Severely -PDO, may favor +EPO (as does strong/super El Niño with an east displaced Aleutian Low) and may favor -PNA 6) ++AMO has lead to an overall winter +NAO in recent years 7) Very high solar activity/flux; can go either way, don’t really see it as a big plus TBH 8) AGW increasing 9) An almost guaranteed raging STJ on roids blasting across the CONUS 10) Research and studies by Joe D’Aleo showing that -QBO/El Nino leads to both -PNA/RNA and lower than average snowfall winters from DC to Boston…See here: http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Winter_of_0910.pdf I can give a hoot less what Siberian snowcover buildup does this month and what Judah’s “SAI” shows, that has proven to be a debacle over the last 15+ years. I can also care less about arctic sea ice…another debacle

The only one who thinks 57-58, 65-66, 76-77, 77-78, 02-03, 09-10 and 14-15 are actually analogs is Joe Bastardi. It’s called let’s find the all time coldest and snowiest El Niño winters/borderline El Niño winter (14-15) in history for the east coast and say they are all “analogs” just like he always does. Pathetic. Those years are so far from analogs right now it’s not even funny. Like not even in the ballpark of being analogs and it’s laughable to suggest they are

Paul Roundy said we are at the point in the season where we don’t need WWBs anymore to get this event to super

Thank you guys. @Gawx And it appears this Pacific MJO signal for early-mid October is for real. The East PAC tropics are waking up big time too. Tropical cyclone activity about to really amp up there. Finally sustained coupling/constructive interference with the El Niño appears to be on the way. A bit delayed but not denied? “A week later and the CCKW signal for early October and even mid October have really perked up. A clear connection between the current WPAC -VPs progressing eastward and reaching EPAC/NATL can be seen. We should see mid-range models start to realize the impacts by late next week.” https://x.com/WxPatel/status/1708211953062031801?s=20 EPAC tropics: https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1708214502288695672?s=20

That didn’t take long….Region 3.4 shot right back up to over +1.6C today….

Very clear MJO phase 8/1 wave showing up on the VPs and OLR for October, which is going to constructively interfere with El Niño. Again, weak, fast moving Pacific MJO pulses consistent with a strong El Niño and +IOD suppressing/subsidence MJO activity in the IO and Maritime Continent. “EPS 11-15 day forecast velocity potential pattern best matches phases 8 and 1…..” https://x.com/yconsor/status/1707741936906293512?s=20

The strongest -PDO on record along with a strong El Niño no less. 72-73 was nothing like this even though the PDO was negative. Possible Super El Niño….the other unusual factors…potential record breaking +IOD event and the yet unknown effects coming this winter from the historic amounts of water vapor in the NH arctic stratosphere from Hunga Tonga (effects on stratospheric temps/SPV)

SOI has dropped again. Very clearly in full El Niño mode now: https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

Paul Roundy thinks this event easily goes trimonthly super, as per his tweets yesterday. I have no reason to doubt a seasoned expert like Paul, he has no bias or dog in this fight. I absolutely still believe the OHC comes up substantially by the end of November. Also, the models have done well to this point, keeping regions 1+2 and 3 the warmest out of all the ENSO regions, with region 1+2 staying in the high 2’s, under +3.0C. I think a possible record strengthening period is about to be upon us. So very clearly still an east-based event as we go into October “09/28/23 #Región1 +2 #ElNiño Very Strong (coastal) (Daily average +3.11°C Biweekly average +2.79°C) - #TSM #ATSM progressive increase (since mid-September), It reached its "peak" in mid-August. #Calentamiento higher (+3.5°C) continues in north-central area.” https://x.com/mario___ramirez/status/1707466428943663341?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw The temporary cooling in region 3.4 has ceased BTW and it’s coming back up

I linked the tweet for all to read. Anyway, the fact that we are seeing the weak Pacific MJO waves is evidence that we are in a strong El Niño/strong +IOD. They work in tandem to weaken and suppress the MJO signal over the IO and Maritime Continent through major subsidence. That’s why the coming MJO pulse next month in phases 8/1 is projecting weak….evidence of the strong Nino at work (along with the constructive interference from the +IOD). The strengthening period (possibly record) is coming. “Weekly sea-surface temperature anomalies show a clear+IOD in the tropical Indian Ocean & #ElNino across the equatorial Pacific. Latest weekly IOD index was +1.45C. +IOD should hold into boreal winter. Both +IOD & El Nino tends to result in weak & fast moving MJO pulses.” Link: https://x.com/jnmet/status/1707805294825247072?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

Plenty of time for this event to strengthen, up into December really. We have seen events peak in December in the past. The signs are growing for a major strengthening next month

It’s there and it’s more than enough of a signal to constructively interfere with and kick start El Niño. That’s actually a sign of a strong El Niño. The stronger Ninos suppress the MJO signal over the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent which makes it weaker and doesn’t allow for very strong MJO events. The +IOD is causing even stronger subsidence over the IO and Maritime Continent as it continues to couple with the El Niño

Here it comes!! “Interesting to see the MJO finally gaining some oomph for the first half of October, we'll have to see if this comes to pass.” See: https://x.com/met4castuk/status/1707331586897715477?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw And the +IOD gaining even more strength…

He’s even going higher for a trimonthly ONI than me. “2.1-2.4 likely.” https://x.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1707386456979677333?s=20