snowman19
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
All i have to say is wow -
This should be in banter. 300+ hours on an operational model run
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We have had a September sun angle since 3/13
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Tomorrow is the Equinox. Let it go
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I remember that well. The hype from JB in mid-late February was off the charts that winter. He was calling for a record-breaking cold and snowy March in the east, “March Madness!” and was using 1888, 1958, 1960 and 1993 as the analogs
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An anafront at day 10 on an operational model at the tail end of March. ROTFLMFAOOOO!!!
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It looks like an early final warming this year, yes
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It would appear that the trend we saw since November of the models getting colder as we get closer in time has finally ended this month. Sunday continues to warm on the models. Last week overperformed too
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It wouldn’t surprise me if some areas get into the 70’s on Sunday
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Yep and there’s no -NAO/-AO blocking to stop it (ridge/warmth coming east) either
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After what was basically wall to wall arctic cold from the end of November into the first couple of days of March, I’d say the overwhelming majority of people in the east are ready for spring now. The Equinox is only 4 days away
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We basically had wall to wall arctic cold from late November into the 1st couple of days of March. We had major snowstorms starting in December, a record breaking blizzard and months of constant snow cover. Also had frozen over lakes for months. By far and away the best winter since 2014-15. I can’t believe people are actually upset that it’s ending
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Just 13 days away at the end of March….and on an operational model….what could possibly go wrong?? Lol
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They absolutely have, you even admitted it in the ENSO thread @cmillzz
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The models have already begun to back off the blocking
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Letting my Pivotalwx subscription expire tonight. Not worth paying for it anymore. I’ll renew it again in mid-November like I normally do
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Thankfully normal highs are well in the 50’s in the NYC metro area now that we’re in spring, so those depicted negative departures are not actually “cold”
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300+ hour snowmap on the op GFS at the end of March. That deserves a double bun!! lmfaoooooo
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Is the Spring Equinox going to get delayed on Friday?
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As of yesterday, we now have a September sun angle. Climo is now fully in spring mode and length of day increases exponentially this month…..
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As of yesterday, we now have a September sun angle. Climo is now fully in spring mode and length of day increases exponentially this month…..
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The 97-98 super Nino winter actually wasn’t a huge torch. It was just too warm to snow. There were a bunch of coastal storms with temps in the 30’s. The problem was it was extremely east-based, region 1+2 was over +4.0C, a secondary area of convective forcing formed there, which completely displaced the Aleutian Low over Alaska (++EPO) and the EPO floodgates were wide open all winter long with PAC air inundating Canada and the CONUS
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If (IF) there’s actually a super El Niño (region 3.4 over +2.0C), it’s very, very unlikely to be a cold winter. Snow is a different matter, since one major KU can skew the entire winter (i.e., 82-83, 15-16). 97-98 was a total dud for snow obviously
