snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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I would imagine NOAA will schedule a special flight over the Pacific this weekend just for that sampling purpose, given that this is going to potentially be a high impact storm next week for the entire I-95 corridor
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That’s the thing right there that has separated this winter from all the other recent ones over the last several years…the SE ridge. Up until this winter, the tendency has been for the models to miss the SE ridge amplifying/strengthening at the last minute. This winter, with a few exceptions obviously, the tendency has been for the models to overdo the SE ridge and end up de-amplifying it at the last minute
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I would be shocked if the GFS/GEFS and ICON scored a coup on the EURO/EPS, but I guess stranger things have happened. That said, I do think the CMC is too amped as usual and I don’t consider the UKMET to be a very reliable model, but occasionally it will do pretty well. As far as the EURO-AIFS, it seemed to have been doing well this winter up to this point and I saw that it moved NW at 0z, but still a miss. And the GraphCast….I haven’t seen the verification scores yet
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I think today has underperformer written all over it south of Orange, Putnam and Sussex. Daytime, very marginal temps, crappy rates, crappy dendrite snow growth, weak to non existent frontogen. Take the under
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Nothing has changed at all since yesterday morning. This is either a huge hit or zippo. And there’s still 2 very distinct camps, world’s apart from each other, that both refuse to budge. I think we will have our answer by 0z tomorrow night. Either the GFS/GEFS, ICON, GraphCast GFS and EURO-AIFS are going to score a big coup or they are going to fully cave to the EURO/EPS, CMC and UKMET and fail miserably
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Factors other than ENSO ruled the roost this winter. There’s obviously been a huge, large scale change in the North Pacific, arctic and North Atlantic. It’s been a predominant -EPO/-WPO/+PNA/-NAO/-AO, cross-polar flow winter. The only thing missing was a strong, juiced STJ, if we had that, this probably would have been a historic, record breaking winter for both snow and cold, definitely rivaling, if not surpassing 95-96, 13-14 and 14-15
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IMO the risk with next week has always been OTS. The cutter talk by some was ridiculous, next week’s pattern in no way, shape or form ever supported a cutter or runner. This is either a big hit or OTS
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Don’t worry I’m sure it’s going to cave. But in fairness, everyone has absolutely been in love with that model up until this point lol
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So does the EURO AI FWIW
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Is anyone concerned about how far out to sea the EURO AI is? IMO that’s the risk with next week. I can definitely see how it can turn into a coast/LI/eastern New England special
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Next Friday (2/21) is when you actually really start to see sun angle be an issue for daytime events with marginal temperatures and light to moderate rates. With heavy rates and/or true arctic air in place with temps well below freezing it doesn’t matter obviously
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30 miles northwest of the city would be Rockland County. It’s going to be well above freezing on Sunday up here, solidly into the upper 30’s
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Literally every time over the last several winters that we’ve had a “kicker” out west instead of a stout +PNA ridge, it hasn’t ended well here
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What is the EURO AI showing for 2/20?
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Still no change at all IMO. Next week is either a hit or suppressed/OTS
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@Bluewave @DonSutherland1 Seeing a lot of hype on Twitter about the MJO going into phase 1 at the tail end of this month and how that supports a very cold and snowy east. Am I missing something? Here is the composite for MJO phase 1/-ENSO/February: @EastonSN+ Yes, this is a La Niña (-ENSO)
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Joe the clown Bastardi has completely ignored his latest epic bust and has already started to hype a major SSWE in March. He has no shame. Even if we were to see a SSW in March it’s too little, too late, it’ll be spring before any effects are even felt with the lag. Game over, say goodnight and goodbye, adios, fat lady will have sung, bring down the curtain, stick a fork it winter 24-25 at that point, a former winter
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Massive fail. After all the non stop, bombastic hype for close to 2 weeks (from BAMWX, Joe Bastardi, Eric Webb and a few others) about a coming massive SSWE along with a split of the SPV for mid-February, some even invoking February, 2018 as an analog for it. Total flop, bust a rama for the ages
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That’s the risk next week right there, suppression/OTS. Just based on the 500mb, I don’t think next week is a cutter risk
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That map is complete asinine garbage
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Agree with you that the blocking looks very impressive, no doubt about it. That said, it’s do or die time. We are going to have a limited window starting next week and into the following week to do something snow wise with the high latitude (-AO/-NAO) blocking we get. There is growing evidence that by the time we get to the beginning of March, all the blocking breaks down, MJO forcing goes back to the IO and Maritime Continent and the SPV strengthens substantially…
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It’s do or die time. We have a limited window starting next week and into the following week to do something snow wise with the high latitude (-AO/-NAO) blocking we get. There is growing evidence that by the time we get to the beginning of March, all the blocking breaks down, MJO forcing goes back to the IO and Maritime Continent and the SPV strengthens substantially…
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Looks like a nice rain storm for NYC this weekend
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December, 2022. February, 2024
