Metasequoia

Sidewalks in Battery Park City are starting to get covered. Some sidestreets are getting slushy. Whatever grass we have is covered... maybe a couple inches.

And if this storm trends northward overnight and shafts the metro, they'll be rejoicing... and good for them. Importantly though, the vast majority of us would rather have a storm that buries everyone.

I think a large portion of this subforum will jackpot on this storm...didn't think this yesterday even. Poor NE forum folks are taking baths while making toast.

Not sure what ratios make sense at this point.

Scary good, yeah?

I think they are waiting to see what the 0Z model runs show.

It's the resulting depth of water if accumulated snow is melted. That's a lot of snow... if it actually did accumulate. Am I wrong?

That's an inch plus of qpf for NYC metro, LI, and north. That would add up.

At this point, cityfolk and LI peeps should hopefully have their expectations in check. Could the modest south trend continue and make Tuesday fun (not that fun though)? Sure. It could go the other way too. I don't think either direction is likely at this point.

TWT has always been about grabbing eyeballs, as one would expect from a company, for good or bad. Less so about their actual forecasts.

Weird... Their forecast for NYC is 1 to 3 inches.

What percent of this forum lives in the City or on Long Island? I think it must be a significant majority. So, that's why the focus is on the City and the coast... Also, I suspect most people in the City rarely leave the boroughs, so the north isn't on their minds. I never go north of the UWS...born in Schenectady though. Plus many people in this forum predominantly pay attention to their backyard (northern folks) or front stoop (MJO). Many Cityfolk want northern folk to get crushed by snow, but care more about the City. Seems reasonable to me. At least the north doesn't get screwed over so much by latitude, warm water, and concrete... take the win even of this forum doesn't focus on it as much. Also, I agree, people in this forum should consider moving 20 miles north instead of to SNE. Makes more sense.

It's shifted north for each of the last four runs. Only room for a couple more ticks north until it's mood flakes for the City.

We haven't been NAMed yet...

Will be interesting to see what the 12Z Euro EPS looks like. I suspect this might bring people back from the ledges... for good or bad.

Seems like now would have been a good time to start tracking. A few days out, still lots of variability amongst models, but general agreement on some basics such as timing, duration, etc.

FWIW

Remind me, you like to see 700mb at least at -10?

The biggest red flag (for those in the city and south) is that the freezing line is north of the city for most of the models.

Differences between 6Z and 12Z GFS runs aren't that much and could be model noise four days out. Bigger change is at 500 mb which doesn't look worse to my untrained eyes.

Any mets want to weigh-in on what weather models should be used to forecast inverted troughs 24 hours before start time?

Recent NBM, provided by NE folks.

Also, the "big winners" might only get a couple more inches of snow. Looks like it will snow tomorrow and cover more than just cold surfaces and even stick around for a few days. I'd call that a win this season. Also, inverted troughs are biatches to forecast.

Thanks. Unrealistic 10 to 1 ratios, but still nice to have something to track.