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EastonSN+

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Everything posted by EastonSN+

  1. EastonSN+
    Yeah we need the SE ridge to flex a bit. However great opportunity for DC, Baltimore and maybe Philly to have an above average snowfall winter.
  2. EastonSN+
    For the 14the again. Target date has not been pushed back so far. EPS the Middle ground for blocking.
  3. EastonSN+
    Great point. 55 through 69 matches 2000 through 2018 in terms of snowfall. 75 through 85 were cold so that could account.
  4. EastonSN+
    Thanks for this, Is it known what slowed the warming from 1958 to 1999? Seems like an outlier. Population and pollution were increasing at a steady rate during this period (as well as natural warming). Population has increased since, however, so have measured to reduce emissions and other pollutants. Solar, volcanic activity, other?
  5. EastonSN+
    Thanks Don, I wonder how much latitude offers increased opportunities for snowfall even in a warming climate. I.e., it's popular for someone to state "we have DC's 1980s climate". However, I find it hard to believe it's a one to one comparison (could be any city to the south). There is still a good pool of cold air left at the poles, so increased volatility, given our latitude, could allow for stable or increased average annual snowfall for a while. Also, I remember storms where the dew points were so low that we lost snowfall to delayed wet bulbing. The aforementioned storms of the past could result in much greater snowfall due to the higher moisture content. Volatility at our latitude could be the culprit for instances like you have posted. I believe Feb 2018 also had a great example.
  6. EastonSN+
    From yesterday, however clearly shows blocking settings up
  7. EastonSN+
    Euro agrees.
  8. EastonSN+
    Found this mornings GEFS MJO interesting.... finally phase 8
  9. EastonSN+
    Same date (14). GEFS has less Ridging out west/Alaska.
  10. EastonSN+
    Thanks. It's just amazing how much 2000 through 2018 mirrored 55 through 69 in snowfall, KU count and time period length. If you have the Northeast Snowstorm KU book they are so similar. The ocean temp anomolies during each period must have mirrored each other in location/configuration.
  11. EastonSN+
    I know everyone hates it but that was the theme before 2000, warm and wet/cold and dry (basically January). I mentioned before, I would really love for someone to do an analysis on why 55 through 69 and 2000 through 2018 were so snowy and had the majority of our KUs (as opposed to pre 1955 and 1970 through 1999). The obvious answer is we witnessed more blocking, and the mean trough was in the east rather than the west. However, would like to know what drove that setup. Water temps? Solar?
  12. EastonSN+
    Yeah it looks good on multiple fronts. We typically do better when we have some SE ridging. This looks like a scenario where DC, Baltimore and possibly Philly have above average snowfall. Especially if the GEFS is right. EPS is stronger in phase 8, hence the difference in the maps.
  13. EastonSN+
    Still looks good and not pushed back. All three models are in basic alignment. I will try to post the 14th every day to track timing. My gut feeling - just like the last round I believe the Middle Atlantic and possibly southeast will benefit the most. Just a hunch. We would benefit from a little more se ridging.
  14. EastonSN+
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  17. EastonSN+
    Taken from the MA forum - I feel good for them, they have had it really bad WRT snowfall for years. Hopefully they can cash in during the next period as well and end up solidly above normal.
  18. EastonSN+
    I mean, March 2015 and March/April 2018 were historic, March 2017 was solid and March 2019 was great for the northern half of the sub forum, so even if it's pushed back 2 weeks it can still produce.
  19. EastonSN+
    EPS, GEPS and GEFS all are in alignment (save minor nuances).
  20. EastonSN+
    Seems like the inverse of March from a decadal perspective.
  21. EastonSN+
    March is an odd Month statistically. 2000s seemed to rarely snow in March while the 90s and 2010s seemed fairly snowy.
  22. EastonSN+
    There is your MJO phases 8, 1, 2 (again same as we saw earlier). Also AO going negative. On a side note, we have obviously brought back the coastal hugger. Now, we have a clipper!! Both typical storms before 2000.
  23. EastonSN+
    Completely agree. Also, Don mentioned in the beginning of the season "the elephant in the room", referring and listing 97/98. This has been 97/98 with an added cold shot that lasted approx 1.5 weeks. It's not over yet and we will likely get another week or so of favorable conditions, but who knows if we will get anything or the MA will get it again. Good for them.
  24. EastonSN+
    Right, but that may increase snowfall in larger storms that are cold enough. Perhaps less storms but more snow and less suppression (SE ridge). Too early to tell.
  25. EastonSN+
    I mean, 2000 through 2018 was warmer than 55 through 69 so who knows.
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