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EastonSN+

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Everything posted by EastonSN+

  1. EastonSN+
    Yup. However this can still go either way plenty of time.
  2. EastonSN+
    Yup. Still a ways away. N and E is best S and W is worse since the blocking is East. Eastern LI can do well.
  3. EastonSN+
    It will come down to the RNA strength as the AO goes negative. If the models trend stronger with the RNA we warm, the opposite we snow.
  4. EastonSN+
    So far for 12z GFS cut back a bit on the snow. CMC increased a bit on the snow. Let's see the ensembles and ECMWF before making a conclusion on 12z.
  5. EastonSN+
    Everything improves around the 10th, when the AO drops, the PNA rises and the MJO goes into 8 at a good amplitude. Before then will be tough. Not comparing intensity, however 2018 went through the same progression where north and East scored early and South and West scored late into April.
  6. EastonSN+
    Thanks so much Don! This period coming up has the most potential since December. Would be nice to see the ground covered again!
  7. EastonSN+
    For the 10th of March and beyond, PNA rises AO drops MJO moves to phase 8 at a good amplitude Now, I know about sun angle, snowfall hostility in March in urban areas ETC, however CPK has had accumulating snows in April. Something to keep an eye on for the 10th to 20th time period.
  8. EastonSN+
    I am in SW CT so my biggest fear. I would be happy with a sloppy 1 to 3. Just hope this does not trend where my area is all rain.
  9. EastonSN+
    I am looking forward to this, rare that I can say I can double my entire season snowfall in March with 1.5 inches.
  10. EastonSN+
    Probably, and there will be a large SW/NE gradient across this sub forum (I am in CT so a little more optimistic). Still I would take CMC for the entire period. Better than what we have seen.
  11. EastonSN+
    What's interesting is it's heading into 8 at a very high amplitude. La Nina forcing was weakening the waves all year in 7/8. Interesting this looks legit. Perhaps due to la Nina slowly weakening?
  12. EastonSN+
    Thanks Don. Could we extend the table/record to include March? Not trying to create extra work, however I feel like a lot of our dud winters have good Marches like 91/92/2019 etc... Thanks!
  13. EastonSN+
    Snowman showed that 8 is not GREAT in March in a La Nina, BUT it's far colder than 7 and we can snow in 8.
  14. EastonSN+
    I have seen worse.
  15. EastonSN+
    This blocking period is crucial. All models show some snow for CPK. If the temps are as low as predicted in March and CPK gets up to 4, I would think it would take this winter out of the top 10 in full winter futility. On the other hand, if the Blocking fails an connects to the SER, I would imagine it's a top 5. Amazing what relatively small differences can change in a historical context.
  16. EastonSN+
    One of the only times I would be upset with 15!
  17. EastonSN+
    Well, some on this forum would be happy during next couple weeks. Sorry Brooklyn:(
  18. EastonSN+
    CMC more tame
  19. EastonSN+
    Hey we can dream right.
  20. EastonSN+
    Okay, if you want snow this would be the time. AO drops while PNA rises.
  21. EastonSN+
    Great post by JBenedet
  22. EastonSN+
    Great post by CAPE.
  23. EastonSN+
    This is another reason this winter fascinates me. We had three distinct patterns already. Two of them, back to back, were the absolute worst pattern types for snow you can imagine, in the same year, in back to back months. THATS rare!
  24. EastonSN+
    Both patterns are completely horrible for snow. There is more potential for volatility in an strong RNA pattern than a stable maritime air pattern. So for a strong RNA pattern you will get higher temp departures due to the SE ridge. However you have better chances for snow as the cold can be tapped into/dragged over briefly. For a maritime 97/98 pattern, your average temps are lower due to the maritime air and tons of moisture, however there is no cold source in the entire continent to tap into. When a storm bombs out, it drags in air from the north. When Canada is well above average it's harder to wrap in cold enough air.
  25. EastonSN+
    Thanks. I think this past January is a good recent example of 97/98. No chance when the entire continent is scoured of cold air.
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