EastonSN+

I lucked out with a dusting in Easton.

Happy that the GEFS looks improved on PAC side LR.

GEFS much improved on PAC side too!

Can we reach -4? From the MA forum.

Can't find it but Bluewave showed the H5 shot of December 2012. Looks close to what we are getting. Sign me up! Of course no two winters are alike, results may vary.

One of the benefits of being in the northeast, always in the game for a monster like Feb 2006, March 2018, Feb 1983 etc etc. Also one or two big storms are how the coastal plain usually adds up snowfall. Was definitely back loaded however we also scored 4 inches that December so NOT a shut out early on. Even if NEMO was a pedestrian 10 inch event we would have reached average annual snowfall that year.

https://www.britannica.com/science/Little-Ice-Age Good read. Our next threat window.

Still emerging from the last mini ice age and have a ways to go before we plateau.

Took a look at the LR guidance and it still looks good as we head into mid/late month. Only December 6, a long way before the solstice. I will say if the LR guidance overnight is correct (and we all know that's a big IF), then 2012/2013 looks like a better analog (east half of sub forum benefits more). Does anyone have the 12/13 snowfall totals for central park? SW CT ended up approx. 129% of average annual snowfall.

Thanks Don! I tend to think it's 75% natural cyclical warming, 25% human induced. What is odd is it seems that April has been colder than average the last 10 years. May be a statistical anomaly.

It's over, I was amped up and holding steady until I saw the 18z GFS. Next year may hold promise.

AO approaching -4

Check over Alaska and Greenland. That's a massive ror change.

12z

6z

I mean the run over run change is massive. NAO block sinks SE, but the EPO completely flips from positive to negative

Now THIS is a change in the GEFS. The Atlantic goes to crap in the LR but the PAC improves. GEPS remains unchanged.

Window 1

Toss the GFS far, 18z yesterday showed two snowstorms. Go with a CMC EURO blend until the GFS calms down.

Yeah, I also appreciate that this forum covers a vast region and what coastal NJ needs is far different than the 84 inland corridor.

Correct in that before mid month we need colder air. If this pattern holds to late month we MAY score.

CORRECT. It's actually great that this is getting delayed. Get this pattern in late December and January. Also, we were only 8 inches below seasonal average last year and that was just 3 weeks. This December looks MUCH better that RNA was a beast.

We scored 4 inches in 2012 where the PAC was worse. What's wrong with the CURRENT pattern? This pattern we are in right now will work in late December and January. Let the models punt all day will will cash in.

I don't see a full punt but more of a correction in the medium term. This current pattern will work late month where Forky/Brooklynwx99/NE thread METS/MA forum are saying. Hey - if Forky/Brooklynwx99 reply here and say it looks hopeless I will follow their opinion 100%, but until that happens I see nothing that goes against the mid to late month forecast from them.

In coastal CT we had 4 inches from that storm. Not sure how far off that was from giving NYC the same but can't imagine it was that far off. So thinking if this pattern is slightly better NYC sees 4 in the same event. What's bothering me is I feel that the board is split to extremes. Either blocking is great so we are gonna get slammed or we have an RNA so all hope is lost and we are looking at 01/02. I think the safe thought process for is something in between until the ensembles lock into something. You are far better educated than me in this field so your opinion holds far more weight, however I do not think the PAC is nearly as bad as what 2012 was (I may be off here of course) - would pay to see what the EPS and GEFS showed in early December.