EastonSN+

Yeah GFS was way off on this storm for them.

I thought the GFS was way off on last nights storm? It was the only model showing Boston getting a ton of snow.

I am probably the most guilty in looking at multiple forums to harvest as much information as possible. That being said, it's important to understand the underlying theme of each forum. The MA forum has had a terrible stretch of winters. Probably due to climbing global temps. Therefore they will put out a lot of hypothesis including the SER dominating everything. It may also lead to over exaggeration of one influence. However, if the SER theory was true there would be a lot more reliance on this factor, and in reality would be our #1 teleconnection over anything. Forecasts would be a lot easier and we can say the PAC will be overwhelmed by SER 90% of the time. Now let's take this winter and break down the background. We have a la Nina. La Ninas tend to have an RNA and therefore a SER. If this was a coupled El Nino and the SER was raging I would be concerned. We are SUPPOSED to have a raging RNA in a strong coupled La Nina. Let's see what happens in the next Coupled El Nino. If this SER theory is true, we will find out over the next few years but IMO the SER is a downstream effect from the RNA/PAC

So the theory would be the SER is static and affecting the entire global pattern?

I get the frustration and as humans we are curious and want an answer as to why something is happening. However we have to be careful not to overblow the importance of one or two winters (20/21 was great and snowy). Remember everyone thought the warm blob was permanent due to global warming and 13 through 15 may be the new norm? Now they are thinking it was not the ocean driving the EPO but a constant EPO driving the ocean temps. I will say this, if the SER is really permanent and we roast for the next 5 years and we have nothing but cutters I will agree with the theory.

Feels like every year there is a focus on a different area and it gets overblown. Polar vortex MJO Warm blob IO SER AMO They work as one not in isolation. The SER is not the driving force.

IMO it's modeling that's the issue. They do not move north as much as they used to. 2003 moved a ton north while 2016 moved north but not nearly as much. Also remember the METS always warn us there is sparce data in the PAC and sometimes we have to wait for a storm in the PAC to get picked up by modeling. So in reality it's again the PAC which changes the ultimate destination of the storm not a SER.

This isn completely backwards. Everything moves downstream from the PAC. The SER does not act like a plug and backup the entire flow. Pure and simple, the La Nina is coupled and doing exactly what la Nina forcing does, like waves in a pool drop the PNA and raise the SER. Not the opposite. I can't wait for our next good winter so we can finally stop hearing about this magical monster SER lol.

GEPS is a miller B.

Pretty much over us, but not in Wisconsin! Good news is both models look great following the storm.

Yeah the GEFS is night and day comparatively.

What about severe weather threat potential? Or heat wave potential?

Pattern looks good through the 20th at least we shall see. As long as the cutter is not as intense as December there will be more chances. Trough finally lifts out of the west.

I feel the opposite had that in December. If the cutter is average strength then our chances of a snow event greatly increases due to the pattern (also the cutter brings down Arctic air). But again, if it's this strong then the third wave will be destroyed and we are left with December. Anytime you have a historic winter in the SW with an incredible RNA.

Seeing all these records in California and the SW is also a big sign. Strong block but all winter the RNA was stronger. We have a ways to go.

The intensity of the December storm robbed the pattern, not the fact that it CUT.

I mean we have snowed to April before and the pattern is ripe, I am just concerned about a December situation where one storm zapped the atmosphere.

I knew the EURO was going to show this - Forky never got invested.

What we don't want is the storm to over intensify like the EURO is showing. In December the "cutter" was so intense it killed the 3rd wave which was (and usually is) our big storm. Its fine if it cuts as long as it's not this intense. Basically, if it cuts we are ok moving forward in the period as long as the strength does not overwhelm the following wave.

Blizzard of 1958 was floated as an analog. Not the bullseye here but would love to see something like that.

Looks like another transfer idea with the low in the lakes. However, like the last storm, it can still be a snow event with the transfer timing. I mean, the last storm had thunder snow.

Yeah that March/April was historic.

That second storm gave me 10 inches of cement, knocked out power for three days and made a medium sized tree fall on my house. Don't want that again. If the track is right CPK can easily breach 10 inches.

Yup. KUs are rare.

This year. I posted the article earlier if you want to get all the dets.