EastonSN+

Good luck up your way, I am tapping out down here.

I think the lack of red-tagger opinions is a huge red flag too.

Red taggers - please prove me wrong/talk me out of pessimism for this storm.

March is not the issue IMO, it really starts with what has happened all year out west. This is their 95/96 start to finish record breaking year. I have no doubt we will have another March/April period like 17/18, 18/19, 91/92, 95/96, 02/03, 12/13, 14/15 etc etc. It just will NEVER happen in a record west coast year like this one.

Yeah they will do their slow take-down process.

These are my reasons and I hope I am wrong. 1.) The storm has to track almost perfectly 2.) The storm has to intensify at just the right time 3.) TWC has all rain even up here 4.) Don's stats - we have to break normalcy 5.) Forky always chimes in when there is a legit shot 6.) Epic record breaking west coast winter. All the cold air has been bottled up there and has created the opposite record effect here. There is some cold to tap but again we have to sit under the CCB 7.) NS dominance. Per standard Nina operating procedures the NS has dominated and helped kill our December. This is hurting tonight and will effect temps for this storm Now I am usually 99% optimistic, however at this juncture I need to see some consistency across more than just the UKMET and EURO.

Yeah can help us here unlike December. This sst temps may be around for a few years before cycling cooler.

Really losing my confidence in this system. We need it to deepen early enough and close enough to allow for enough dynamic cooling (i.e. under the CCB). Plus not a peep from Forky.

Yeah, slightly east and weaker = less dynamic cooling and rain.

So sorry for you loss.

Yup. Starting 2014 east has been best save 2021. Will flip back to west is best at some point.

Yeah TWC has me all rain now. NWS point and click down to an inch.

A bit disappointed for SWCT on that. Probably temps

TWC app has me mostly rain

Still worried that he has not opined.

GEFS is a little west of 12z and a lot more QPF for the region especially Long island and CT. However more QPF across the board. Think the NW low has a trough to the offshore low again however with heavy precip.

FWIW the GEFS upped the QPF for all.

Should be a real interesting GEFS.

Thanks. I really hope they avoid the record.

How much for BDR? Hopefully they avoid futility.

I am going with 50% only for simplicity at this point.

Yeah that's my hope a GFS EURO blend is our bullseye.

10 to 1 adjust as necessary

Soooo close.

Let's have another GFS EURO showdown 2015 style. Revenge of the EURO.