Still a few days to go until this is decided. I like seeing the latest Euro, but let’s see what the Euro & other models do at 0z.
I think the southern third of PA to northern MD will be in a good spot for this storm.
12z Euro with a similar idea as the Canadian.
Advisory snow this run to the LSV & Warning snow just over the MD line.
Only minor adjustment needed to get southern PA into the better goods.
Agreed, 50 or so miles. will likely have a large difference in snow amounts depending on where the cutoff sets up. Lots of runs to go until that is determined.
Heck, we are a couple of days away from solid NAM & short range model forecasts.
Long way to go. That was a crazy swing south by the Ukie in one model run.
We don’t need much of a push from most Op run guidance to get into the decent stuff in the LSV.
Either way, I wouldn’t mind even a couple inches of snow if we end up getting fringed. Whatever we get should stick around for awhile.
The 12z Canadian shows a solid Advisory event this run for the LSV & more out towards @Bubbler86 & @MAG5035
It wouldn’t take much for a slight bump to the north to get more of CTP into the better goods if the confluence eases just a bit.
Despite the torch the last 2 days, MDT is holding on to a -1.6 degree departure for the month. So even when today’s above normal day is factored in, MDT will have another below normal temperature month.
Someone just posted the recent official model rankings a couple of days ago in the Mid Atlantic thread.
The Euro was first & the GFS was near the bottom, worse than the Canadian.
Good points.
It’s not like we are trying to will a Miller A with precip cutting off in southern VA to move up to our latitude.
Most guidance has a juicy low tracking from the Tennessee Valley into the lower Ohio Valley with an established juicy precip field.
I will take my chances in southern PA with this set up.