The 4 Seasons

Why does pivotal look drastically different? It's the UKMET so who cares either way but 976 near the BM vs this looks entirely like a different run/model. Is the UKMET-G different from pivotals UKMET?

Just for you. The two additional totals you gave me. I corrected the colors to what they should be. I use the light yellow for low end warning amounts, dark blue for advisory amounts, light blue for sub advisory and white usually for 0 or less than 1. Similar to what the NWS uses. The only reason i changed that this time is because i wanted to differentiate between the large area that was going to get zero and the areas with a coating-1 and 1-2, so i needed 3 colors for that. Then for the verification i wanted to keep the same colors so it was easy to look and match up the zones. But for recorded keeping purposes i reverted it back to the original colors, what i normally would use.

That's what the CLI has.. Unless they change it its a trace

UKMET is south, shocker. This one is toast barring some miracle. On to the next one.

GFS/Icon is essentially a whiff now, congrats. This was hanging on by a thread, now it's over.

TWSS?

Ants lookin for another inch or two to double his seasonal snowfall this year. god bless that man

Perfect. That should hold. The 84hr NAM is as rock solid as a Dodge Ram, aint nothin movin that bad boy..yeehawwwww. Winters back boys

what county and whereabouts exactly?

yea its a lot of work but fun, i agree. When the winters over im gonna make a bunch of them with different stats using the graphics that i normally do for this winter

Snowfall totals from this morning. Did pretty well with the forecast overall but missed that far western area that ended up in the 2-4 range with one 4.5" report. I tried to include the reports i found here but its hard to fit a lot of those numbers in such a small area. If there was an official ob from an airport i most likely used that.

Climate (weather.gov)

i thought it was a hundi, but still $40 is good, easiest bet ever.

I have no idea what this sentence means. It's pretty easy though just go to the NWS any area click on the climate tab, then click on NOWdata and you'll see it. The percentages and snowfall to tie record I calculated myself with some simple math. Hope that helps

Yeah i said that in the post, just didnt include it until all the airports come in with their CLI around 4:30pm today. It's not that better up here. BDR has a great shot right now of beating the all time record, they need another 3.3 to tie and 3.4 to beat it Im only at 8.9 even here.

Yes.

Here's some futility stats across the region that i posted in the New England forums...looks like NYC is still #1 all-time on the season. If there's any errors let me know. Gonna have to add 0.1 from the snowfall this morning but the CLI isn't out yet so ill wait for that for the airports. Station ID | Snowfall to date | Normal snowfall to date | % snowfall to normal to date | rank if no more snow fell | snowfall needed to tie record ALY | 41.9" | 48.6" | 86% | #16 | N/A ORH | 31.8" | 60.9" | 52% | #9 | N/A BDL | 19.6" | 43.8" | 45% | #10 | N/A BOS | 11.9" | 41.0" | 29% | #4 | N/A PVD | 11.5" | 31.4" | 37% | #5 | N/A BDR | 4.9" | 27.6" | 18% | #1 | 3.3" LGA | 3.3" | 25.5" | 13% | #2 | N/A NYC | 2.2" | 25.9" | 8% | #1 | 0.6" JFK | 1.7" | 22.2" | 8% | #2 | N/A ISP | 3.4" | 26.3" | 13% | #2 | N/A

Some futility stats across the region...hopefully no errors this time but let me know. Station ID | Snowfall to date | Normal snowfall to date | % snowfall to normal to date | rank if no more snow fell | snowfall needed to tie record ALY | 41.9" | 48.6" | 86% | #16 | N/A ORH | 31.8" | 60.9" | 52% | #9 | N/A BDL | 19.6" | 43.8" | 45% | #10 | N/A BOS | 11.9" | 41.0" | 29% | #4 | N/A PVD | 11.5" | 31.4" | 37% | #5 | N/A BDR | 4.9" | 27.6" | 18% | #1 | 3.3" LGA | 3.3" | 25.5" | 13% | #2 | N/A NYC | 2.2" | 25.9" | 8% | #1 | 0.6" JFK | 1.7" | 22.2" | 8% | #2 | N/A ISP | 3.4" | 26.3" | 13% | #2 | N/A

Yeah Storm 1 is non-starter similar to GEM. Storm 2 is an absolute bomb but at this range for the op does it matter? the EC/EPS was gorgeous at this range 2 days at 00Z/Sunday. Maps are fun to look at though, its all we got lol

Yeah, that looked like this one does on the EC a couple days ago. I'm not in love with either, but not ready to write anything off yet, were just too far out for that.

Hopefully they are injecting it with steroids, but i dont see it on wxbell or pivotal either. I think we already know what its going to be based on the UKMET/GGEM...doubt it'll be anything good

Yep. The GFS is on some shit right now, i have zero faith in that evolution and like you said seems to be trending to the other foreign guidance. The evolution and track just screams thread the needle, march with marginal airmass and perfectly timed and positioned low bombing out. Right now i'd give it a 10/90 against for a significant snowfall across SNE. It's worth watching obviously but confidence is very low.

The 18Z EPS is definitely better than 12Z, a lot more members hanging back NW. The spread has definitely increased. H5 better than 12Z, closed low is NW as well

Winter 22/23 Progression...

Mar 2nd and Mar 3-4th 2019. At least here. We had a 3-6er little critter, then 36 hours later we had the 10-15 4"/hr wet snow overnight bomb. I just went back and looked at the maps. Seems your area only got 1.5" ish first storm, and 6" the second so you didn't do so well. Mar 2018 was the epic "1 nor'easter per week" where we got 4 nor'easters all separated by about a week. Mar 2nd - far interior and far west CT 3-8" everyone else rain Mar 8th - whole CT wet snow bomb 6-28" Mar 13-14th - east bomb with a hole in the 91 area W CT warning snow, E CT 12-24" Mar 22nd - coastal scraper, bust, 3-6 S CT and 1-3 N CT