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TSG

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Everything posted by TSG

  1. TSG
    WOW @ the last few scans. Radar lighting up across central VA/southern MD
  2. TSG

    Winter 2022-23

    TSG replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    Epic writeup. I knew a lot of this but seeing it so well laid out is nice. Saving to share with others!
  3. TSG
    I'll never forget that week. It was gnarly being outside. I was working at a summer sailing camp on the Potomac and we were gathering kids up and spraying them down (and ourselves) with the boat washing hoses to keep cool.
  4. TSG
    Radar looking really bad over 64 right now. Hook echo now clearly visible. Lots of rotation..
  5. TSG
    That large cell WSW of Richmond has been going since 4:45pm when it was coming off the Blue Ridge West of Charlottesville. Impressive echo tops, over 50k ft now. I got to watch it march into the Piedmont from the reservoir.
  6. TSG
    The section of the large line to the south that came through downtown Charlottesville was legit. Didn't see any hail but winds were easily gusting to 60+, rain going sideways, stormwater infrastructure quickly overloaded. Looks like CHO didn't get hit as hard based on the 5-min obs. Best storm of the year so far.
  7. TSG
    some sort of triple point visible on radar? What's going on SE of CHO? There's pretty clearly some kind of warm boundary stretching across VA. Made a drawing to show what I'm talking about.
  8. TSG
    From my place south of downtown Charlottesville about 20 mins ago. Images are a bit blurry because of the compression. Looking SW Looking South
  9. TSG
    ~40k ft cloud tops on a couple of those cells south of CHO
  10. TSG
    Latest SPC mesoanalysis has Cville back over 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE, with the 2000 line not far off. That seems like enough to work with. MLCAPE not nearly as robust, but it is changing quickly.
  11. TSG
    I'm thinking we have a solid chance at round two down this way. Sun is poking out and the air feels thick. We're up to 75/66 after dropping to 66/63 around 10:30am this morning during the heavy stuff.
  12. TSG
    only a minor adjustment...
  13. TSG
    Yes. Your back yard is also not representative of overall patterns. No offense intended... but you can't tell a difference because you aren't looking at the right things. How much snow a little postage stamp of land south of Baltimore has gotten the past few winters is not a useful datapoint.
  14. TSG
    @Maestrobjwa I got thinking about this some more and I think it's important to remember we are humans with subconscious bits of our memory that influence how things feel. This year and the past two we've had above normal March temps followed by avg or slightly negative departures in April and May (20/21). In my mind this would tend to "feel" like a cold spring, especially if those warm March avg temps were brought on by a few key warm stretches towards the end of the month and not a general slightly above average regime. To have that then be followed up by weeks and weeks of the same temps would feel "cold" even if it's about average. 2018 is also in recent memory which is pretty much the coldest early spring we've had in the past 2 decades. May obviously bucked the trend that year but the memory was made at that point. My guess is those two things make the past few years seem out of place.
  15. TSG
    Slow day at work. Made some graphs. Data is from DCA
  16. TSG
    back away from the edge bud, it's mid-April
  17. TSG
    THE VILLAGE!! This pic just made my day. I'm a 2014 grad, lived in Eagle.
  18. TSG
    My coworker up in the valley near Staunton has SN/SN+ coming down
  19. TSG
    Wow it is miserable in Cville. I think we're all or mostly rain at this point but the temp was 40 when I left for work and has only gone down. 35/34 at 11:30
  20. TSG
    Distant thunder and a quick downpour in Lake Barcroft. Radar looked much more intense than the ground truth.
  21. TSG
    October is by far my favorite month in the mid-atlantic, especially the first half. Humidity starts drying up but we still regularly get into the 70s mid-day. It's a annual glimpse of what summer is like in Northern New England
  22. TSG
    Sun poking through in Charlottesville. Wasn't expecting this ahead of the last line.
  23. TSG
    I forgot how dry the air is right now. It's going to be fun to watch the temp drop after sunset
  24. TSG
    DAMN it's cold out there. Walking at lunch was not very fun. We're currently running about 6-7 degrees below the forecast down this way. Seems unlikely we get even close to the forecast high of 54(??) with it being 40 at 1:30pm. What guidance was Sterling looking at?? Jumping back through the NAM runs from yesterday, none had Cville above about 46-47 for this afternoon. 40/5
  25. TSG
    Some impressive temp anomalies on the GFS for next week. Charlottesville looks to be below 40F from late Monday night through sunrise Thursday. Most of Tuesday we sit around freezing
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