TSG

Got a solid first burn of the year walking around on a landfill and some cattle pasture in Albemarle today. Windows open now. Sucks that we're so dry but I don't hate this SoCal weather

Maybe the windiest day yet down this way. Pollen apocalypse out there. My eyes are dying

The skylight cover/window over the stairwell in my row house in DC was lifted off the building and disappeared into the sky that day. Pretty sure the pressure differential between inside and out during one of the gusts is what popped it free. Epic indeed.

this board's negative feelings about wind will never fail to amuse me. I love it. I wish we had more days like this

Not trying to be mean here but that article is trash. "10 times better?" Over what time scale? what variables? wtf does better even mean in this context? nothing is explained. That's an AI hype piece masked as a "the revolution is here!" feel good story Their "revolutionary" model has slightly lower RMSE values when compared to the GFS in most areas. It also runs at a 1.5 degree (~110 miles) horizontal resolution compared to the GFS's 0.25 (17.4 miles) or the ECMWF HRES's 0.1 (5.5 miles). Vertically it's also nothing close. The GFS divides the surface to the mesopause into 127 layers. The ECMWF has 137 layers. This AI model has 5. It's providing orders of magnitude less information about the atmosphere, and it's only slightly more accurate at the points it does forecast. Actual Study: https://cdn.roxhillmedia.com/production/email/attachment/1700001_1710000/865aa96b274c128474186cf6f77b2556fe008b92.pdf

"Pot, meet kettle."

From the science perspective, that likely contains very high NOx and SO2 particulates compared to current levels. Peak poor air quality (from those two offenders) was around 97/98. NOx dropped off quickly after 2000 and SO2 was only a few years behind. We're down about 90% on those emissions since 1995. Some environmental researcher may be mildly interested.

Just about done here. One of the most visually impactful 2" storms in recent memory

Back end approaching quick down this way. This may end up my 2nd favorite event this year due to the temps. I honestly prefer a frigid 2-3" over a sloppy 6-8" type deal like we had last week.

Somewhere near 2" now in Charlottesville. 19/14, mod snow, 0.5 mile vis

Some nice banding setting up over Albemarle. Approaching an inch here but it feels like a lot more with the temps preventing any melting. Salt did nothing this morning, roads caved instantly and have stayed covered. 18/12, moderate snow, vis. 1.25 miles

Yeah well half the people on this thread were doing the same so not sure this place is much of a step up. I guess if you're ignoring anything that isn't from a red tagger or like 3-4 other accounts it's fine lol. Posting any NAM output that's over 48hrs needs to be banned on here, not even kidding. These weenies need to have some sense knocked into their head. Like you might as well be posting the results of a coin flip..

well that was impressive to witness CHO went from 39F at noon to 55F at 1:30pm

Boundary layer temps continuing to run well below forecast down this way 12z NAM3k @ 1pm - 57F CHO @ 12:25pm - 45F

whatever survives down this way is going to become concrete overnight Temps are also way down compared to forecast. the 3kNAM had CHO at 50F by noon and they've only managed to get up to 38 here at 11:30..

can confirm that's a great family. I'm the same age as his youngest son. Went to JMU with them both

My parents I think adored him to a certain degree. He was definitely the face of weather for me as a kid. And even then, their nickname for him was "Boner Bob" lmao it had to do with how excited he'd get on air

Ahhh I read 12Z as 12K. I was kind of confused by that wording but carried on anyway lol. Sorry!

I'm shitting on it above lol, but the 12k is great 24-36hrs out from an event. The problem is it keeps running past that. I specifically remember the northern crew rejoicing Sunday night about this 00z run.. I had a feeling it was setting people up for disappointment.

A friendly reminder to everyone what kind of hardware NOAA runs the 12kNAM on

HRRR is similar but less severe up your way. NAM3k is almost a non-event outside of favored spots/elevation. It's going to be interesting watching temps today. The HRRR is more accurate for down here rn, it has my area at 31 while the NAM is at 33.

is it within protocol to have a second one sitting in the freezer, ready for a precip switch or just reg 6 hr mark?

Amazing, one headlight and a rooftop full of snow ready to cover the entire windshield at the next red light

I think you'll beat that prediction. Back end precip looks to spread north between 10-12pm