TSG
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Everything posted by TSG
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Not trying to make the northern crew feel even worse, I do feel bad for y'all, but this is the result the Euro was showing for days that many posters in here were heavily discounting/tossing. Remember it for the next storm! And don't ride the 48hr NAM!
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Flake size has increased a bit under these borderline yellows coming through fairfax
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@stormtracker Hope it looks like this out there for ya tonight or tomorrow. Pic is from the 2016 blizzard looking west across the Calvert Bridge Putting this in banter so I don't get yelled at
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Snow has started in Lake Barcroft south of Seven Corners. staying with my parents for this one, feels like college again
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I mean after this weekend lol. a potential big storm #3, snow on snow on snow
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This is wild. I didn't think we'd see anything close to 2010 again given the ocean anomalies the last ~8 years. I would be so happy to be wrong if this lands and we're looking at another threat 7 days from now
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You'll sleep a lot better the next few nights with that booked. That alone might be worth it lol
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I'd use the Snipping Tool if on Windows. It's built in, nothing to download or set up
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they're monitoring the situation out West for potential downstream effects here
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It's time to stop talking about JV global models. We're 6 hrs from start.
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So I guess that's a heated pool your neighbor has
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It's 5 hours in the winter. 4 in summer
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The GFS had the mix line into PA 2.5 days ago. It moved to the Euro way more than the other way around
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The axis of heavy precip to our West was as far North as Cinncinnati into SWPA on the GFS. It's now moved that into central KY and Southern WV. More like a 100 mile shift imo
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Idk about "meet in the middle". the GFS did about 80% of the movement Last 6 runs.
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GFS is colder/souther
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Go check H5 the last few runs of the GFS vs Euro. One has moved a lot more than the other and it's not the foreign model
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Anyone have the 00Z UKmet kuchera totals?
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I believe that Jan 3rd one was fairly steady on the central VA jackpot, but expanded precip north leading up to go time. The system juiced up in general the last few model cycles
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have we all forgotten the NAM is basically worthless outside of 36 hours? and really only is worth serious consideration under 24? I feel like I'm going crazy over here. I thought that was an unwavering truth known to this board. Especially older heads
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I think we have a couple more south shifts coming for the NAM
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Things I am sure of after the last 24 hours: - The 12kNAM is indeed run on a 2001 Nokia flip phone - This subforum is completely out of snowstorm shape. Worrying about the NAM 36+ hrs from start time lol. The 2016 version of us would be howling with laughter - The Euro is still king/queen/grandmaster
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The only real difference I've seen the last few Euro runs is the angle of the heavy precip bands, and even then not a whole lot. From WSW->ENE to closer to due East.
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I would lean even more towards 12-24 hrs. I'm not a met though just a dude with a solid memory of past events. The NAM has scored some coups over the years (specifically about precip type for specific locations), but the massive differences in precip fields between it and the globals tells me it's likely doing it's "overamp at range" thing. If it is, we'll see it come south on the overnight runs.
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We are so rusty in here. No one would be putting this much faith in the NAM @ 48hrs 5 years ago lol
