TSG

Anyone have the 00Z UKmet kuchera totals?

I believe that Jan 3rd one was fairly steady on the central VA jackpot, but expanded precip north leading up to go time. The system juiced up in general the last few model cycles

have we all forgotten the NAM is basically worthless outside of 36 hours? and really only is worth serious consideration under 24? I feel like I'm going crazy over here. I thought that was an unwavering truth known to this board. Especially older heads

I think we have a couple more south shifts coming for the NAM

Things I am sure of after the last 24 hours: - The 12kNAM is indeed run on a 2001 Nokia flip phone - This subforum is completely out of snowstorm shape. Worrying about the NAM 36+ hrs from start time lol. The 2016 version of us would be howling with laughter - The Euro is still king/queen/grandmaster

The only real difference I've seen the last few Euro runs is the angle of the heavy precip bands, and even then not a whole lot. From WSW->ENE to closer to due East.

I would lean even more towards 12-24 hrs. I'm not a met though just a dude with a solid memory of past events. The NAM has scored some coups over the years (specifically about precip type for specific locations), but the massive differences in precip fields between it and the globals tells me it's likely doing it's "overamp at range" thing. If it is, we'll see it come south on the overnight runs.

We are so rusty in here. No one would be putting this much faith in the NAM @ 48hrs 5 years ago lol

NAM overamping a system at range? Impossible. Never happened before.

I feel like you need some context. This is the best medium/long range look this entire area has had since Feb 2015

Weenies gonna weenie. It's in their genes

A bottle of wine deep, some inspiration, and you get this:

my point is the people complaining are not forecast to get anywhere close to 9", so give us a break!

You do realize a solid chunk of this subforum lives south of DC, right? You're responding to those people. I get 2" of snow and then frozen slop for 12 hrs.

yeah well I don't need the Euro to come south. It's already there

It's not meshing well with his holiday vacation plans in the stratosphere

it's over. shit the blinds

Your constant disappointment would disappear if you stopped equating day 7-10 GFS output with official guidance from a government agency. The last time it showed any significant snowstorm for our area this weekend was 06z 11/30

I'm loving this cold. We didn't even make it to 40 down here in Charlottesville. CHO topped out at 39 around noon before the clouds rolled in and we're back down to 37 now.

Thanks for the clarification. By "bumpers" I meant the literal way the physics are implemented in the model, such as removing/correcting for known biases based on analysis of prior versions of a model.

Speaking from a high level here as I only casually understand the inner workings of NWP models, but the main reason is it's a physical model rolling forward based on it's own predictions. A small error made in the first few days could easily lead to downstream effects that blow up to "super rare scenarios" by day 10+. "A goat fart is incorrectly modeled in Mongolia and that causes the PV to drop into NY 12 days later" as an over the top example. You can design the system with "bumpers" to try to keep it in reality, but too much limitation and you remove its usefulness as a forecasting tool if it essentially only ever shows "climo".

Pretty sure I saw a few mangled flakes in Falls Church about 15 mins ago.

Stuck at ~43 with constant light/moderate rain since 10am in Charlottesville. It hasn't looked much past 7am here all day. I'm kind of enjoying it after what we had last week

This shit is gross