TSG

15z HRRR is improved for the northern crew

haha I'll get over there later once it's piled up a bit more. I can't remember, did you typically do night shots or day? or both?

Wet-bulbing has gotten us down to 29F in Albemarle after a high of 34F around 9am, 2 degrees colder than the 15z HRRR initialized at for this area. That seems like a good sign for us down here later, maybe not a great sign for those way north. 29/26, SN, ~2" otg, visibility fluctuating between 1-0.5 mile

The HRRR has been getting colder each run. Sleet line looks to stay south of CHO until at least midnight now. It came through around 9/10pm on some earlier runs this morning. 30/25, moderate snow, ~1" on the ground so far

wololo

And we do have a full moon in 2 days... uh oh. hope the models are taking this into account

This is pretty locked in. Not worth putting much weight on the SREFs or GEM output

every damn time. I mean I hope not but..

lol I do the same to some extent, never diagnosed but I've got plenty of the signs and signals

That's what I've got my eye on at this point. It could be nasty along and West of the BR. Idk exactly what storm track / system charcteristics combo we need to get this kind of setup, but it's reminding me of the mid-January storm in 2022. There was a big pocket of cold air that never really eroded in SW/Central VA. If yall don't remember that storm it was a quick front end followed by rain (for most). Down here we never really lost the surface, maybe got to 33-34 before crashing again, but areas 100+ miles north were getting blasted with 45 degree ocean air and lost anything that fell or was remaining. The end result was we had snow on the ground down here almost that entire month while the metros only had a week after the Jan 3rd storm

We are now entering the most dangerous territory for the snow weenie: extended HRRR and NAM at 48 hrs

When did I say you were wrong? Everyone here has emotions about snow chances. This is the most edge-case filled forum among the spectrum of people that care at all about the weather. How would we not? It's just that the vast majority of the people here choose to not muck up the storm discussion threads with it. It's obnoxious scrolling through the same 10-15 posts every model cycle that are nothing but "I just KNOW the north trend is coming" "It hasn't snowed 6" in Baltimore since friggin 'nam dude!" "THIS IS SO UNFAIR, WAAAAAAAAAAAH"... But that's okay! That's why the ignore list exists

This is the exact type of post I'm talking about

There will be blocking in place when the storm arrives Tuesday. The low that went North of us yesterday will become the 50/50

This current storm thread has added more people to my ignore list than the last 10 years combined lol CHILL YALL. We don't need to know your every waking thought

I don't have all the details but yes it does. Not sure how it determines melting rates, radiation effectiveness, or anything like that. Existing snowcover is a data input at simulation start

The big change I'm seeing is precip never really shuts off for much of the area Wednesday afternoon before the next batch makes it's way in from the "Thursday storm". The spacing there seems much tighter on the GFS compared to 24hrs ago. That'll help the CAD hang on longer and would def increase ice totals.

The ice threat Wednesday afternoon/evening is starting to look a little scary west of Rt15

I couldn't disagree more! GIMME 10" OF COLD SMOKE BABY

Does space weather count? The May 10th aurora was something I wasn't ever expecting to witness this far south. I only heard about it the morning of and ~12 hours later my mind was being blown parked at a mountainside lookout near Wintergreen.

Gave this some more thought in the context of how our winters have been changing overall and I think I might have something. I'm focusing on the idea that our seasons seem to have shifted "to the right". i.e. Winter conditions more common in Mar/Apr, Summer conditions in Sept/Oct, etc. I don't have any kind of explanation for why, but it looks like whatever consistent atmospheric features cause these anomalies may be (a) starting later in time, (b) extending longer in duration, and (c) amplifying. The late January thaw that used to be a feature of many pre-1980s winters may be pushed out into the first week of February on average at this point. I haven't grabbed February data yet to see if this theory would actually hold water, but my memory has more than a few "early feb thaws/heatwaves" vaguely floating around. There were a couple years of cherry blossom disappointment when I lived in DC 2015-2020 from temps crashing late-Feb/early-March after said warmup and killing off most of the blooms. I could also be seeing things that aren't there

Could you do a 12/13 composite and a 21/22 composite? That may show an even stronger signal based on what I'm seeing.

This one is kind of a recreation of Roger's from a couple years back but with the more recent data corrected for warming to make comparison easier. I took a flat -2.2F off the 84-24 values. Below is the same data but presented as the delta between the two data sets.