TSG

This has been brought up and discussed before. I believe the consensus is that the increasing humidity has been keeping our temps down in some of our recent torchy summer stretches.

1.07" at CHO and certainly felt like it, yesterday was one of the wall-to-wall rainiest days in recent memory.

68/54 as of 7:40pm on a stiff SSW wind at CHO The air feels thick

Lmao, that's some post of the year material

70/43 at CHO as of 1:10pm 3:30pm update: boss-man told everyone to go home and get outside

Wxdood has 89 posts since joining in 2014, half of those are probably in the past hour, and before yesterday hadn't posted since March of 2019. I smell an alternate, troll account. Stop taking the bait y'all

Worked from home today, had the local westher on. Couldn't help but laugh at this map. What a year

I'm banging on the bongo when I get home, that's for sure

Definitely cold down there right now. Could be some upwelling caused by the low moving north, there's 30-40 mph winds off the NC/VA coast right now. You can see how much more red than blue there is across the North Atlantic though. Hard to look at that and think it won't have any effect.

I don't know if it's wise to expect another period like that. For all we know that was a transient set of conditions that could only occur with the warming that had occurred up to that point. We've gained ~0.3C globally since then. Current running mean is ~0.95C above the 1950-81 average, it was ~0.65C in 2010. So something like 25-30% of the warming that has occured, has occured since that period and as we've seen recently, our part of the Atlantic seems to be doubling down on that trend. I would expect different results now if we had the same patterns set up as those years. It's been too long. I think we're in a different era now and analogs are going to become increasingly hard to use for forecasting without adjustments being made based on our new background state.

What temp departures do we have for Jan at the major airports by this point?

but... haven't you been here since the EasternWx days? so that's like 15-20 years ago? That was ancient history by the time I was getting involved in here. I'm specifically talking about the period from 2012-2015/6ish. That was the best form this subforum has ever been in imo. Maybe it was just because times were relatively good, but I remember pattern discussions being a lot more in depth and fruitful. I learned a ton from just lurking and reading, I can't really imagine doing that now. It would at least be a lot harder to do.

It wasn't always that way. It's certainly a lot different in here now than when I joined in 2014. There's a lot of good posters that have abandoned the forum because of the constant garbage

Seems to me the disconnect comes from people's inability to represent/entertain a view that they themselves don't want to be true or to see how anyone else possibly could. Those with a heavy science background know this is just how you should approach these things... it's paramount to keeping your personal biases in check and actually conducting useful analyses. I see a lot of responses aimed at your posts that seem to come from a somewhat defensive position, like you are somehow attacking them, when you're just stating "this is what I'm seeing, let's discuss". I've always assumed this board's members were primarily math and science folks but that doesn't seem to be the case.

Clearly some strong snow weenie genes you've passed on. You should be proud!

Would you be worried about the WAR ruining our temps and pushing the baroclinic zone too far inland with the trough in that position? Seems like an issue we've had a few times this year.

It's not, but it doesn't tell nearly the whole story. An example: DC gets slightly more rain (~40") annually than Seattle (37"), but fairly close. Those locations hit those totals in very different ways. How we're getting to these averages is as important as the value itself as that is the weather we experience on the ground. We don't "feel" 10 year averages.

Anyone know of a place to bulk download historical values of the AO, NAO, EPO, etc? I've got a LOT of free time this week and want to mess around with some data

@psuhoffman Agreed, we did really well down this way. Reposting my "end of season" summary from late Feb when we were staring down highs in the 70s & 80s. I think we did get one more marginal event in mid March that the N/NW crew did better on. ----- A+ January in Charlottesville, we averaged 3.0F below average from Jan 3rd-31st (Jan 1/2 in the 60s) and depending on what measurements you look at it was somewhere in the top 5-10 range for Jan snowfall since 1920. I measured ~18.5" at my place. Hadn't seen an epic pattern like that since living in DC in 2015. We also got REALLY lucky with the mid-month storm. Never got above freezing here during that event so we maintained the snowpack for about 4 weeks straight. Would've been nice to have another 1-2 storms to track, but I broke my thumb skiing late Jan so the season ended for me then and there... bring on severe season! Overall winter rating: B, short but sweet for western-central VA ----- That mid-month storm had a huge effect on how the entire month felt. With the way the low evolved as it came up the coast, West-Central VA never got blasted with the warm ocean air. We pretty much just dryslotted and stayed in the low 30s before the later temp crash, while areas 100 miles to the north hit 45 under moderate rain and lost most, if not all, of their snowpack.

wxtrix doesn't like making new friends

you might want to check the tag at the top of our home page again

this is like telling someone in Purcellville they live near DCA

The guy lives like a 5 min drive from our subforum's borders. This is not a case of LET EVERYONE IN. Y'all need to chill the f out

The problem is when a moderator says outside of subforum obs are fine to post when they're near her backyard, but any others aren't

Yeah the geographic boundaries for subforums work, but telling some guy to **** off back to the Philly subforum when he lives 10 miles off the MD/PA border is just mean and pointless. In an era of dying online forums this is entirely the wrong attitude to have.