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WhiteoutWX

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Everything posted by WhiteoutWX

  1. WhiteoutWX
    We finally seem to have some real arctic air entering into the northern plains towards the end of next week which tries to push south. Now it’s just up to favorable timing with any of these waves ejecting out from the southwest. GFS shows how the pattern can work but we need the waves to stay weak or likely ends up mostly rain this far south. Still a ways out there but getting arctic air into the plains is a good start.
  2. WhiteoutWX
    Models have trended towards a more northern stream dominated pattern and western US ridging. Neither of those things are good signs for snow in our area. Dry with occasional cold shots would be favored. ETA: Longer range may hold more promise if ridging can retrograde a bit and allow some of these short waves to dig some more. GFS is a little flatter than the Euro with the long wave pattern, but both suggest maybe something more favorable past 7 days.
  3. WhiteoutWX
    Lol like a week ago? NW Oklahoma had a foot of snow.
  4. WhiteoutWX
    The NAM may be good at picking out the max potential for snowfall within the heaviest band, but it is definitely the northeastern outlier in placement of the band compared to the other models. Euro/GFS ensembles are further south and west with the swath of snow. NAM may still be a bit out of its range at this point and I'd trust the other models more on placement for now. It's always very tricky forecasting these mesoscale snow bands. Models usually shift around in placement even within 12 hours. Expect more changes but right now areas across northwest OK/southern KS are favored for accumulations due to colder temperatures.
  5. WhiteoutWX
    Hot towers on the south and east side look to have weakened a lot the last 30 minutes. Now we just have the intense band on the north side of the eye. Eyewall may stay open for a bit longer.
  6. WhiteoutWX
    I don’t really follow chasers so I don’t have anyone specific in mind. But in general, anyone that places money and/or getting the best video above the wellbeing and safety of others. Bonus points for those that seem to show no care or respect for the people actually being impacted around them that are being injured or otherwise having their lives devastated.
  7. WhiteoutWX
    Are you seriously asking that question? Do you even read this thread? lol... Hell.... Kill me... To be honest no I hadn’t been on here in a few days and didn’t read back. I apologize if this was already discussed.
  8. WhiteoutWX
    There really have been a lot of crap systems to get us to Josephine so quickly. I wonder how this year compares to 2005 in ACE? Are we still outpacing it?
  9. WhiteoutWX
    Plumes of SAL dry airmass and aerosols riding the easterly jet should suppress activity for a few weeks at least. It will moderate with time as the ITCZ and individual waves begin to gain some latitude July-August. I guess I meant more specifically, how will the upcoming favorable MJO wave influence the SAL. Would the strong SAL we have seen this week be more likely to subside during this period? I’m not familiar with how all this things interact.
  10. WhiteoutWX
    How will the current SAL outbreak influence this otherwise favorable period? Is it expected to subside soon?
  11. WhiteoutWX
    With the MCS already nearing the edge of the enhanced me thinks they’ll be trimming that a bit.
  12. WhiteoutWX
    And there it is, thanks!
  13. WhiteoutWX
    I looked around at SPC and NCDC's websites but wasn't able to find a historical count of US tornadoes by month. I'm sure it exists somewhere though. Given the current and upcoming pattern I wouldn't be surprised if we finish under 100 this month.
  14. WhiteoutWX
    Tbh I had kind of overlooked today’s setup as it’s not really chaseable terrain but it very much resembles a land falling tropical system. On radar at least. Interesting!
  15. WhiteoutWX
    Good luck! Iowa seems to surprise on occasion.
  16. WhiteoutWX
    Wasn’t sure whether to use the long range thread or this one but I’ll just put it here. Looks like the next seven days or so will be unusually quiet over the plains as a deep cutoff forms over the eastern US this week, cutting off moisture return to the plains. However, after this low lifts out ensembles seem to be in fairly good agreement with perhaps some more progressive troughing out west which could lead to an uptick during the climatological peak season. We’ve seen models hinting at better patterns in the long range this year which turned out to not be so great in the end, but in the last half of May it really does not take much to get at least a small event.
  17. WhiteoutWX
    The surging outflow has really wrecked a lot of the severe potential for much of OK. Shear is even less impressive to the south so not very enthused about convection in TX, at least as far as tornadoes.
  18. WhiteoutWX
    I guess today's severe weather will go here? Looks like an active day with numerous storms likely. Low-level shear doesn't look particularly strong for tornadoes (bulk shear is also only in the 20-30 kt range), but with multiple boundaries in play across Oklahoma would not be surprised at a mesoscale accident producing a spinup or two.
  19. WhiteoutWX
    Pretty much multicell junk so far
  20. WhiteoutWX
    Rapid clearing now across the panhandles into western OK. Cumulus forming on the dryline across the TX panhandle. Initiation likely in the next hour to two hours.
  21. WhiteoutWX
    Probably your best bet today. Will be interesting to see how quickly moisture returns and how long the clouds hang on today. Currently pretty socked in with clouds and fog all across the area.
  22. WhiteoutWX
    It does appear like the models have upped the effective bulk shear closer to the 40 kt range, but the cap is stout ahead of the dryline, especially on the NAM. Storms may struggle to sustain updrafts long enough to achieve supercellular status. The NAM is also advertising low-level wind fields which are basically unidirectional in the first kilometer by 00z this evening. Combined with models suggesting quick upscale growth, I'm a little skeptical on tornado potential.
  23. WhiteoutWX
    The graphical issues are a NWS wide server problem affecting their websites. Maybe you should keep your uninformed opinions to yourself before calling people idiots.
  24. WhiteoutWX
    Hard to say for sure. It's further south with the cooler air more entrenched into Texas Tuesday night. It has a weaker wave coming out Wednesday as well so probably a combination of those two things. Usually the NAM is best in the winter with shallow cold fronts, but this far into spring it is a little less believable. If we do get a lot of precip Tuesday across the panhandles and OK I could see the cooler airmass being slower to budge than the globals are showing.
  25. WhiteoutWX
    Lack of forcing may hinder development as well. NAM is barely convecting (a known bias) but in this case there are only neutral at best height tendencies across the risk area so it’s at least a bit of a concern. I think we see at least some storms but how many will probably depend on subtle short waves and other small scale features that are hard to predict at range.
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