WhiteoutWX

While those totals on the GFS are crazy and fantasyland, this is definitely the type of pattern that *could* deliver some repeated rounds of wintry weather with a stalled arctic boundary and subtle waves riding along it. If the flow gets too amplified we’d be more likely to get one bigger storm and a quicker warmup. Still too far out to say which is more likely though. Definitely one of the more exciting winter patterns I can remember being forecast in a while. Which admittedly isn’t saying much for this part of the country after the last several “winters” lol.

The level of staying power for the cold next week is incredible. I think the GFS may be under doing it’s precipitation output later next week too. That’s a decent trough parked to our west with overrunning southwest flow atop the arctic airmass. It doesn’t take much to snow when the air is that cold. If we do end up with that type of shortwave, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a more substantial snowstorm to go with it, especially for areas more toward the western edge of the arctic front. Still a ways out, will be interesting to see how the pattern evolves.

We finally seem to have some real arctic air entering into the northern plains towards the end of next week which tries to push south. Now it’s just up to favorable timing with any of these waves ejecting out from the southwest. GFS shows how the pattern can work but we need the waves to stay weak or likely ends up mostly rain this far south. Still a ways out there but getting arctic air into the plains is a good start.

Models have trended towards a more northern stream dominated pattern and western US ridging. Neither of those things are good signs for snow in our area. Dry with occasional cold shots would be favored. ETA: Longer range may hold more promise if ridging can retrograde a bit and allow some of these short waves to dig some more. GFS is a little flatter than the Euro with the long wave pattern, but both suggest maybe something more favorable past 7 days.

Lol like a week ago? NW Oklahoma had a foot of snow.

The NAM may be good at picking out the max potential for snowfall within the heaviest band, but it is definitely the northeastern outlier in placement of the band compared to the other models. Euro/GFS ensembles are further south and west with the swath of snow. NAM may still be a bit out of its range at this point and I'd trust the other models more on placement for now. It's always very tricky forecasting these mesoscale snow bands. Models usually shift around in placement even within 12 hours. Expect more changes but right now areas across northwest OK/southern KS are favored for accumulations due to colder temperatures.

Hot towers on the south and east side look to have weakened a lot the last 30 minutes. Now we just have the intense band on the north side of the eye. Eyewall may stay open for a bit longer.

I don’t really follow chasers so I don’t have anyone specific in mind. But in general, anyone that places money and/or getting the best video above the wellbeing and safety of others. Bonus points for those that seem to show no care or respect for the people actually being impacted around them that are being injured or otherwise having their lives devastated.

Are you seriously asking that question? Do you even read this thread? lol... Hell.... Kill me... To be honest no I hadn’t been on here in a few days and didn’t read back. I apologize if this was already discussed.

There really have been a lot of crap systems to get us to Josephine so quickly. I wonder how this year compares to 2005 in ACE? Are we still outpacing it?

Plumes of SAL dry airmass and aerosols riding the easterly jet should suppress activity for a few weeks at least. It will moderate with time as the ITCZ and individual waves begin to gain some latitude July-August. I guess I meant more specifically, how will the upcoming favorable MJO wave influence the SAL. Would the strong SAL we have seen this week be more likely to subside during this period? I’m not familiar with how all this things interact.

How will the current SAL outbreak influence this otherwise favorable period? Is it expected to subside soon?

With the MCS already nearing the edge of the enhanced me thinks they’ll be trimming that a bit.

And there it is, thanks!

I looked around at SPC and NCDC's websites but wasn't able to find a historical count of US tornadoes by month. I'm sure it exists somewhere though. Given the current and upcoming pattern I wouldn't be surprised if we finish under 100 this month.

Tbh I had kind of overlooked today’s setup as it’s not really chaseable terrain but it very much resembles a land falling tropical system. On radar at least. Interesting!

Good luck! Iowa seems to surprise on occasion.

Wasn’t sure whether to use the long range thread or this one but I’ll just put it here. Looks like the next seven days or so will be unusually quiet over the plains as a deep cutoff forms over the eastern US this week, cutting off moisture return to the plains. However, after this low lifts out ensembles seem to be in fairly good agreement with perhaps some more progressive troughing out west which could lead to an uptick during the climatological peak season. We’ve seen models hinting at better patterns in the long range this year which turned out to not be so great in the end, but in the last half of May it really does not take much to get at least a small event.

The graphical issues are a NWS wide server problem affecting their websites. Maybe you should keep your uninformed opinions to yourself before calling people idiots.

I guess technically there was severe weather in portions of the previous outlined area. I just question the utility of the CPC putting out such a graphic when the area is huge and the time period is a week long. I mean yeah there’s likely gonna be some severe weather somewhere in the plains any given week in May. That’s just climo. A more useful forecast would be above or below normal chances for it IMO.

Ensembles definitely showing a relaxation of eastern US troughing towards and beyond day 10. Light at the end of the tunnel perhaps.

Two sentences before the bolded it clearly says medium to long range which is what I was referring to. Regardless, I hardly think that one localized event which was focused east of I-35 and outside of decent chase terrain disqualified the broader point I was making that the overall pattern has been and looks to remain for the foreseeable future extremely poor for the plains states as far as a tornado/chase standpoint. So I’m not really sure what your point is here but I stand by what I said. When and if the pattern changes and starts to look better I’ll be right there with everyone else getting excited but until that happens I’m just telling it like it is, the fact being it’s been a very slow season for anywhere outside the gulf coast states.

I don’t want to keep posting the same thing over and over and be super pessimistic but I’m really struggling to find anything encouraging in the long range that suggests a pattern change. The western ridge/eastern trough just keeps reloading again and again. As we go deeper into May you don’t need perfect setups to achieve severe events but still, the long wave pattern is leaving little room for even smaller events.

I’m taking the under on that forecast

Put this in the wrong thread earlier: Deterministic and ensemble guidance are all in relative agreement in this pattern persisting in the mid to extended range, with a trough over the east and ridge over the west. Even occasional hints of transient high-latitude ridging over the NAO domain which suggests this pattern may be slow to budge. I think it's pretty safe to say April is probably toast at this point for anyone outside the Gulf Coast states as far as tornadoes are concerned. May is still 10+ days away so we'll see how things evolve, but no real sign of a change to a more favorable plains tornado pattern for the foreseeable future. That being said... looking in closer range. Tomorrow evening offers some localized tornado risk for portions of the TX Panhandle into western and southern Oklahoma as the warm front lifts northward. If sufficient moisture can return for surface based convection, deep and low level shear is favorable along this corridor for at least a tornado or two.