WhiteoutWX

Looks like another incredibly slow start to the season here in Oklahoma, after very slow starts in 2018 and 2019 as well. We've had 5 tornadoes so far this year, with 3 back in January and 2 in March. Extended range guidance suggests it not at all out of the realm of possibility we get to May without any additional tornadoes. For comparison, 2019 had 2 tornadoes in April until a big day on 04/30/2019, while 2018 made it all the way to May without a single tornado on the year. 2019 ended up being a record year for number of tornadoes while 2018 was fairly slow, so there's not much you can say at this point on whether the pattern will flip to a more active than normal May. While the severe enthusiast in me is disappointed at another slow start, it's good mother nature could cooperate at least for our EM's across the state who are already overloaded with COVID-19 related tasks.

I'm still not entirely sure how much weight to give the CFS dashboard...but I know last year we went the whole season without it looking anywhere close to as active as some of the recent runs have for later in the month, so I guess that's encouraging.

Yeah seems pretty clear the pattern will be unsupportive of much severe in the plains for at least the next 10 days. After that, like you said, models begin to diverge on whether we can get some western US troughing or continue with more of the same.

GFS and ECM still have large differences regarding the trough amplitude in the Fri-Sun period. One (GFS) being much more low amplitude/zonal mid level flow while the other has much more meridonial flow over the plains as the trough ejects. I think for me the GFS would be preferred for more discrete activity and also would have a better shot at a multi-day threat. We know meridonial flow often gets messy. Either model would imply at least one good day during the period though. After that we may have a couple day break before trough reloads to the west. Also, GFS is showing the dryline getting pretty far east into Oklahoma and I would almost guarantee it verifies further to the west, which would bring it underneath more favorable wind fields than currently progged. Something to keep in mind.

I think the models have consistently shown an overall favorable pattern but have been jumping around regarding the ceiling of the period. Could be something great or could be something more along “average” climo for this time of year. Depends on how the trough orientation sets up and the individual waves eject out into the plains. Models have occasionally shown some blockiness over the eastern US as well which could complicate the setup some. Still far enough out that I’m just in a wait and see mode.

No one wants to jinx it given the past few years...

There is a lot of warm air advection at mid levels. There's no closed 850 mb low to keep temperatures colder; the precipitation is basically one prolonged warm air advection event until Sunday afternoon when 850 mb winds turn northerly. This seems like a case where models would be more likely to under-do this warm air than over-do. I'd be hedging lower on the snow totals, higher on the ice/sleet.

2nd highest single day December total on record for the airport.

I've always thought the idea of a chasecation seemed pretty risky. Even excluding this years absolute trainwreck into a pile of dumpster fires of a season...during a normal season a week of poorly timed troughs could mean the whole vacation is a wash. Maybe I'm just not a "dedicated" enough chaser though lol.

With quite the stout cap to go along with it. I think Saturday the only hope is further north with stronger forcing. I haven’t looked to closet though tbh.

This is mostly in jest, but when the long range GFS has been consistently showing hurricane landfalls in the gulf in May you know the overall pattern is total crap.

I’m hopeful that either one of the days, Tuesday/Wednesday, will end up being a decent chase day. The synoptic pieces are there so that gives some confidence at this range. But I’m also trying to not get too excited given the 6/7 day lead time at this point. That said, Euro is really nice looking.

Just the simple fact it’s showing a legit ridge on the east coast for what seems like the first time this year has me encouraged.

The 00z Euro looked to be a nudge towards the GFS regarding more significant troughing over the west starting around day 7. Let’s see if we can get some persistence now.

Euro doesn't look anything like the GFS unfortunately with relatively weak flow across most of the plains. Still like 10 days out there and definitely a period to watch (the only thing to watch at this point).

As a local in Oklahoma who also enjoys winter weather I think the biggest source of frustration has been we have now had to endure two consecutive almost record breakingly boring and snowless winters which sandwiched last spring which was rather meh from a chasing perspective. And now this spring looks to at the very least be dead for the first half. It’s hard not to get antsy as a weather enthusiast when you’ve gone this long without any real stretch of interesting weather. I know the season ain’t over but it’s a real exercise in patience waiting for *something* interesting to happen.

There always the chance for late May magic, I’m reserving calling the season for at least another few weeks, even as bad as things look at the moment.

Can you elaborate on why the GWO phase space plots have you concerned? From everything I’ve read Phases 1/2 are the best phases for tornado activity in the US. The current GEFS forecast has us solidly in phase 2 in about 5 days, with the long range taking it into high magnitude phase 2 territory. Is there something else you were seeing?

I guess I should have been more specific as to which part of Texas I was referring to. I meant more in the Big Spring to Wichita Falls area which is at a much lower elevation. On closer inspection though the dryline will likely be much further west and you’re right those dews would go further at higher elevations. And agreed on the much needed rainfall! Will help with ongoing fire fighting efforts in some of those areas as well

GFS and EURO with sub-60 degree dewpoints even in west/central Texas has me underwhelmed for Friday. The low-level shear is good but that’s some pretty meager moisture for this time of year. I’ve been following this for days waiting for this aspect to improve but models have been very consistent. I find it hard to expect anything more than a low end threat exists at this time. Eventually the gulf will stop getting bombarded with crashing cold fronts but doesn’t seem like that will stop for the foreseeable future.

Problem is the front late this week plows south basically to the equator...will moisture recover quick enough for whatever next system may approach?

Gfs and euro are worlds apart with the timing of the wave ejection end of next week. Gfs says late Thursday, euro says Friday. Severe potential much greater on the Euro with better moisture and shear.

Low amplitude can work but I’d be worried about moisture return this early in the season if systems are spaced too closely.

Will be nice if we can actually get some decent ridging for an extended period in the east. The general pattern since November, with a few exceptions, doesn’t lend much confidence to that.

At least for now, the GFS and Euro seem to be keeping areas west of 35 relatively rain free during the afternoon before CI which could leave at least some area of potential open over western/west-central OK.