WhiteoutWX

Something to watch, although the GFS has been wildly inconsistent on placement/magnitude of potential threats (to be expected from this range I guess). Euro is slower with the trough and would shift any potential focus to Monday and beyond. ETA: On closer inspection even with the slower trough the Euro would still imply at least some severe threat in Texas/southern Oklahoma for Sunday.

00z Euro and 12z NAM looking a little better for Sunday. Moisture return at this point is marginal but the trend with the surface low and upper wave has improved the shear profiles. Definitely time for it to trend better.

Until this blocking pattern over eastern North America breaks down I’m not excited about early season severe in the Plains. Moisture will continually be a problem in that setup with a trough parked on the east coast and northerly flow over the gulf. GFS has hints of the blocking holding on all the way to the end of the run, so we’ll see. I’m highly skeptical of the ERTAF forecast for above normal tornado activity in the southern plains and Midwest for next week.

Just no July like ridging in April this year. Almost the entire month of April last year was wasted due to substantial ridging over the Rockies and Plains with the jet stream up in Canada at times IIRC.

I’m just hoping to see a hodograph that looks like that in May when when know moisture/instability will be there. So many junky hodographs the past few years in the southern plains. i think my question is if we can get convection to fire on the dryline. The ejecting shortwave is rather robust but the cap is definitely there and will still be hard to overcome if we can’t get some amount of warming to the east of the dryline. Hints of extensive cloud cover and showers in the models don’t lend confidence to that happening IMO, but obviously that type of thing is hard to forecast. It only takes a small window for something to produce with that shear profile.

While the model forecasts may technically be showing a flip to -AO in the longer range, they're also showing a very strong and in-tact vortex over Canada, which does not bode well for extended cold at lower latitudes.

+AO argues for glancing blows at these latitudes, but we'll see.

Repost from central forum: I'll be targeting Nebraska. My current thinking is chances for rain/clouds seem higher in eastern and southeastern parts of the state which is unfortunately where I was initially targeting (the closest drive from Oklahoma). I was hoping to stay south of I-80 but if morning clouds/rain look to be a problem I may target as far N/W as Grand Island. I have no reservations so if it looks really bad in Nebraska Sunday night/early Monday I may just bail altogether. I'm not going to deal with traffic nightmare/longer drive if I would have to go through KC area or further east.

Thanks for putting that together, Quincy. It really is amazing how few tornados there have been in the southern Plains this year. And like you said, it would be hard to draw up a much worse pattern for the first 10-15 days of May. There is always the end of May when good things can happen with less than stellar troughs but I have to admit my optimism has really trailed off the past few weeks.

So who else is excited for the omega death block of doom the next 7-10+ days? Fun times.

Looking at 500 mb the 12z Euro and GFS are almost identical at 96 HR. The Euro is maybe a bit further north than the GFS but very close.

GFS and Euro continue to have large differences in trough placement/orientation for this Friday which has a large impact on surface low and frontal features. SPC has southern half of OK and north Texas outlooked but mentions the model uncertainty. Which model caves first?

I've been following the GFS AAM forecasts the past few weeks. It's consistently been showing a move towards Phase 1/2 space in longer ranges but so far that has yet to materialize. It is encouraging to see the GEFS/EPS in agreement for the time frame you mentioned though. Maybe this time the threat will have legs.

GFS says Wednesday may have some potential as well. It is further south than the Euro though for the entirety of the middle to end of next week.

Definitely nothing that screams outbreak in the next 7-10 days, but the GFS is at least offering some possible smaller scale setups in the southern Plains in that timeframe. Looks like Saturday, Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday all have at least some potential in the TX-OK-KS corridor. Upper flow is lacking, especially Saturday and Monday, but there may be *just* enough mid level flow coupled with good moisture and low level shear for at least a conditional tornado risk any one of those days. One other caveat is capping may be a concern with no clearly defined waves at the moment to help provide background ascent, but maybe some subtle shortwaves will appear that could help with that as we get closer.

Fair enough, that makes sense. Definitely has my interest piqued. Could be the first big plains setup this year, as you stated previously.

Really confused as to why the SPC outlook for Sunday only extends as far south as Kansas. 12z GFS has some very impressive parameters (minus some S-shaped hodos) all the way south through Oklahoma and into north Texas, with several PDS TOR soundings throughout that corridor. Obviously it's a ways out and could change but given the current data the placement of the risk area seems odd to me. I haven't seen the Euro is it completely different?

It seems like maybe too many short waves for this time of year? Not enough time for moisture recovery? Agreed that you have to think this upcoming pattern has to produce SOMEWHERE...it's just a question of how far north and west the threat can make it.

GFS has taken many steps backward for Sunday as far as moisture quality into Oklahoma is concerned, mainly due to a stronger frontal push with the Friday system. I'm now convinced any tornado threat stays along and south of Red River, with maybe the exception of far SE Oklahoma into SW Arkansas. And the broad SW flow aloft it was showing a few days ago for early to middle next week has quickly morphed into one much stronger, slower trough that doesn't look to eject until mid to late next week. Euro may offer slightly more hope, but probably still too far out to speculate what potential that one has though. Overall rather disappointing changes for any Oklahoma locals, but hey it's only March. Probably to be expected!

Yeah I'm not sure I buy mid 60s dewpoints into central OK by 00z Mon but I think somewhere near or south of the red river definitely has a shot. If the Friday system could just get out of the way quicker...man.

Moisture quality finally looks to improve into Texas and Oklahoma starting Sunday through at least Tuesday. Will see if other parameters can finally line up to go with it. This Friday looks rather unimpressive to me at the moment.

Awesome stuff thanks for the info!

Fascinating stuff. That might be one of the most promising long range predictors of tornado potential I've seen before, at least looking at historical correlations. However the tricky part is getting accurate forecasts of the AAM. Phases 8,1,2 look the best for central U.S. potential, with 1 being the top of those.

Do you have an explanation or a link to one that describes how the AAM affects tornado potential? I am unfamiliar with this forecasting technique.

I'm not saying the dryline will be that far west this time but there were a number of events with large eastward model biases last year.